Central Banks Continue Gold Accumulation as Prices Decline, People's Bank of China Maintains 20-Month Buying Streak

Deep News07-09 19:06

Global central banks' stance on gold is consistently under scrutiny, and China's central bank has been notably proactive in this regard.

According to data released by the People's Bank of China, the nation's official reserve assets held 75.44 million ounces of gold as of the end of June 2026, marking an increase of 480,000 ounces from the previous month.

This represents the 20th consecutive month of gold accumulation for the nation's foreign exchange reserves since November 2024. The commitment to increasing holdings has remained firm, regardless of short-term fluctuations in the gold price.

Nearly 2.5 Million Ounces Accumulated Over 19 Months

Based on central bank figures, official gold reserves stood at 72.96 million ounces in November 2024. The latest figure of 75.44 million ounces indicates an accumulation of 2.48 million ounces over the subsequent 19-month period.

Concurrently, the value of these gold holdings has risen from $193.431 billion to $303.724 billion, an increase exceeding $110 billion. A significant portion of this appreciation is attributed to the rise in the international gold price.

Considering that China's total foreign exchange reserves grew from approximately $3.27 trillion to $3.42 trillion over the same period, an increase of roughly $150 billion, it suggests that a major component of the growth in reserves stemmed from gold holdings.

Active Timing, Not Passive Allocation

Despite the consistent intent to accumulate, the pace of China's gold purchases has been methodical.

Looking at the past 20 months, the period from November 2024 to February 2025 was a phase of determined accumulation, with average monthly purchases of 160,000 ounces.

From March 2025 to February 2026, as the international gold price surged from around $2,600 to above $5,300, the central bank proactively slowed its purchasing tempo. Monthly increases were reduced to below 90,000 ounces, with some months seeing additions of only 30,000 ounces, thereby avoiding the risk of chasing the rally at elevated prices.

The market reached an inflection point in March 2026, with gold prices entering a sustained period of weakness. In this context, the central bank incrementally ramped up purchases. The increases for March, April, and May 2026 were 160,000, 260,000, and 320,000 ounces, respectively.

In June, purchases doubled during the low-price period, precisely capitalizing on the bottom. Spot gold hit a low of $3,942 that month, a decline of nearly 27% from the yearly peak of $5,405. The central bank added 480,000 ounces in June, the highest monthly increase in nearly 16 months.

Research reports have calculated a negative correlation coefficient of -0.751 between the scale of the central bank's gold purchases and the international gold price from November 2022 to September 2023, corroborating a counter-cyclical strategy of buying on dips and avoiding purchases at peaks.

Global Central Bank Consensus Tilts Towards Gold

As of the end of June 2026, China's gold reserves accounted for approximately 9% of its official reserve assets, still below the global average of 27%.

In contrast, the United States, Germany, and France all have significantly higher gold reserve ratios, each substantially exceeding 50%, while India's ratio has reached 17%.

Furthermore, according to World Gold Council data, global central banks were net purchasers of 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2026, a 17% increase from the previous quarter. Net purchases in May reached 41 tonnes, setting a new high for the recent period.

A survey by the council indicates that 45% of responding central banks plan to increase their gold holdings over the next year. Gold's multifaceted value as a crisis hedge, long-term store of value, and tool for diversifying investment risk has transformed it from a traditional historical reserve asset into a core strategic reserve that nations are actively seeking to build.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment