U.S. stock futures advanced across the board on Tuesday, April 21, before the market open. Dow Jones futures rose 0.59%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.39%, and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.46%. European markets showed mixed performance at the time of writing. Germany's DAX index was up 0.27%, while the UK's FTSE 100 declined 0.14%. France's CAC 40 fell 0.24%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 edged up 0.18%. In commodities, WTI crude oil rose 0.29% to $87.67 per barrel. Brent crude dipped 0.04% to $95.44 per barrel.
Markets face three significant tests tonight. At 20:30 Beijing time, U.S. March retail sales data will be released, marking the first major economic indicator since the outbreak of conflict between the U.S. and Iran, highlighting its potential impact. Simultaneously, former President Donald Trump is scheduled to appear on a financial news program, where discussions on Iran are anticipated. Subsequently, at 22:00, the nomination hearing for Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair will commence, crucial for determining whether he can assume the role in May. These three events present consecutive challenges for the market.
Ahead of the nomination hearing, an unexpected complication emerged. Republican Senator Tillis has opposed Warsh's nomination, not due to Democratic resistance but because of dissatisfaction with Trump's treatment of current Chair Jerome Powell and the Fed. Tillis stated he would not support any nominee until a Justice Department investigation into Powell is resolved. This unprecedented situation ironically suggests that Trump's persistent criticism of Powell might inadvertently extend Powell's tenure.
In a swift reversal, JPMorgan Chase has turned bullish again. The firm raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7600 points, citing profit growth driven by artificial intelligence and the technology sector. This adjustment comes just weeks after the bank had lowered its forecast. The renewed ceasefire态势 between the U.S. and Iran has also supported market sentiment. The revised target implies approximately 6.9% upside from Monday's close of 7109.14 points. Last month, the Wall Street firm had reduced its S&P 500 target from 7500 to 7200 points. JPMorgan also increased its annual earnings per share forecast for the index from $315 to $330 and raised its 2027 EPS target from $355 to $385.
Michael Burry, famous for predicting the 2008 subprime crisis, recently shared significant market views. He suggested that the current hot stock market rally does not immediately risk a sharp, destructive crash. However, he presented detailed data indicating that over the past decade, Wall Street has systematically overestimated the real earnings of major tech companies by more than 40%, with ordinary investors bearing the cost. In a deep-dive study published on his Substack account, Burry analyzed thousands of annual reports from major tech firms in the Nasdaq 100 over ten years, concluding that the profits Wall Street led investors to believe in were 42% higher than the actual figures.
Why are U.S. stocks seemingly unafraid of the U.S.-Iran conflict? Analysts reveal that interest rate cut expectations are acting as a stabilizing force. Despite escalating tensions over the weekend, which caused the VIX index to surge 8% (currently at 18.87) and oil prices to rise 5%-6%, the U.S. stock market remained unusually calm. Analysts believe expectations for Fed rate cuts are supporting bond market stability, a key reason for the stock market's steadiness. Seeking Alpha analyst Damir Tokic noted the lack of significant negative market reaction to the weekend's events, suggesting it might be because the bond market showed no clear response. With the 10-year Treasury yield stable, inflation expectations contained, and the market still leaning towards Fed rate cuts in 2026, the bond market has not yet priced in an inflationary scenario.
In corporate news, Halliburton (HAL.US) reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat average analyst estimates. While conflict in the Middle East reduced net income in its Drilling and Evaluation division by approximately 2-3 cents per share, strong international performance offset some of the impact—revenue from Latin America surged 22% year-over-year. As the world's largest fracking services provider, Halliburton derived 26% of its revenue last year from the Middle East and Asia, while competitor SLB's exposure to the region is even higher at one-third. Analysts noted that the company's international growth effectively hedged against weakness in North America, resulting in a performance that exceeded expectations across the board. Long-term, the need for countries to rebuild energy infrastructure post-conflict could present new growth opportunities for Halliburton and its competitors.
GE Aerospace (GE.US) reported better-than-expected first-quarter results, with strong aircraft maintenance demand helping counter the impact of rising oil prices. The company also expects full-year profits to reach the high end of its guidance, though it warned that high oil prices, fuel supply constraints, and global growth slowdown could pose short-term challenges. GE Aerospace's Q1 adjusted sales reached $11.6 billion, up nearly 30% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations of $10.7 billion. Operating profit increased 18% to $2.5 billion, above the average analyst estimate of $2.24 billion. Adjusted EPS was $1.86, beating the expected $1.60 and higher than the $1.49 reported a year earlier.
UnitedHealth (UNH.US) posted first-quarter profits far exceeding Wall Street forecasts and raised its full-year outlook, signaling progress in rebuilding investor confidence after a significant downturn a year ago. The health giant reported Q1 revenue of $111.72 billion, up 2.0% year-over-year, beating expectations by $2.06 billion. Adjusted EPS was $7.23, higher than the top estimate in analyst surveys. A key metric measuring medical costs performed better than expected, prompting the company to raise its full-year profit target by 50 cents per share.
As the Cook era concludes, Wall Street is closely watching Apple's (AAPL.US) AI strategy. Can new CEO John Ternus recreate an "Apple golden age"? After steering Apple for 15 years, Tim Cook announced he will step down as CEO on September 1, succeeded by hardware chief John Ternus. Cook leaves behind a commercial empire nearing a $4 trillion market capitalization, with vast cash reserves and a robust hardware ecosystem. Global equity investors and Wall Street analysts are looking beyond the impressive financials of Cook's tenure, focusing instead on the core growth theme: how will this tech giant, heavily reliant on consumer electronics hardware profits, leverage its proud Apple ecosystem and hardware DNA to solve the equation for AI-driven growth in the era of generative AI and AI agents?
NVIDIA (NVDA.US) CEO Jensen Huang joined Adobe (ADBE.US) CEO Shantanu Narayen as a keynote speaker at the Adobe Summit on Monday. However, BNP Paribas Exane expressed caution ahead of the summit, noting that the content creation platform faces increasing competitive pressure from Canva. The Adobe Summit is a key platform for announcing new services, features, and product upgrades for creative and marketing software. The 2026 summit opened on April 20 in Las Vegas, accompanied by a simultaneous online virtual event.
According to its IPO filing summary, SpaceX plans to implement a dual-class share structure post-IPO to ensure founder Elon Musk and a few core insiders retain absolute voting control, while public investors will have limited voting rights and legal recourse. The draft prospectus also revealed that Musk spent $1.4 billion last year to purchase SpaceX shares from current and former employees to increase his stake. SpaceX is scheduled to hold a three-day closed-door meeting with analysts this week at its Texas launch site and a large data center in Tennessee.
Key economic data and event schedule: - 20:30 Beijing Time: U.S. March Retail Sales MoM - 22:00 Beijing Time: U.S. March Seasonally Adjusted New Home Sales (Annualized) - 04:30 Beijing Time (Next Day): API Crude Oil Inventory Change for the Week Ending April 17 - 22:00 Beijing Time: U.S. Senate Banking Committee Hearing on Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair Nomination - 02:30 Beijing Time (Next Day): NYMEX May Crude Oil Futures expire (final floor trading ends at 2:30, electronic trading ends at 5:00). Note that some trading platforms may have expiration dates one day earlier than the official NYMEX date. - 02:30 Beijing Time (Next Day): Fed Governor Waller speaks at the Brookings Institution.
Earnings Preview: - Wednesday Pre-market: Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US) - Wednesday Pre-market: United Airlines (UAL.US), GE Vernova (GEV.US), AT&T (T.US), Boeing (BA.US), New Oriental (EDU.US)
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