French bank BNP Paribas has recently weighed in on the industry debate concerning computing power supply and long-term sustainability, bringing AI cloud service providers CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV.US) and NEBIUS (NBIS.US) back into the spotlight.
In a research note to clients, BNP analyst Stefan Slowinski stated, "In the near term, we believe the pricing environment remains favorable, as evidenced by recent AI infrastructure agreements between SpaceX and Anthropic and Google."
Slowinski added, "We estimate these deals could generate $30 to $50 billion in revenue per gigawatt (GW) of computing power. While we believe SpaceX's pricing power stems at least partly from its ability to provide short-term capacity to two relatively price-insensitive clients, we still view these transactions as a positive signal for the pricing landscape."
Delving deeper, Slowinski suggests that market concerns about a shift from so-called "extreme consumption" to token optimization strategies might actually benefit Nebius, as current demand for computing power still "far exceeds supply."
He noted that Amazon Web Services recently increased prices for its GPU reservation service by 20%.
Slowinski further commented, "In this context, Nebius stands out. Its AI cloud technology stack appears better equipped to support enterprise clients in fine-tuning open-source models, offering a more cost-effective alternative for companies seeking cutting-edge models and alternatives to premium lab pricing."
"This adds a new dimension to the long-term investment thesis for Nebius, although this rationale is not yet reflected in its financial results," he added.
Regarding the broader "new cloud" sector, Slowinski indicated that compared to hyperscale cloud providers, new cloud players can accept lower unleveraged returns because their monetization is still in early stages, and financial leverage can deliver "attractive leveraged internal rates of return (IRR) at the project level."
Addressing CoreWeave, Inc.'s stock underperformance relative to Nebius, Slowinski believes there is "a catch-up opportunity" as execution continues to improve through the second half of 2026.
He explained, "The company is significantly increasing its computing capacity, which somewhat obscures unit economics at the business level. Meanwhile, pricing for new contracts has been set to fully offset component inflation while maintaining contribution margins above 20%."
"Furthermore, compared to its new cloud peers, CoreWeave is further ahead in capacity build-out, with an active power capacity of about 1 GW versus Nebius's approximately 200 MW," Slowinski noted.
"As the proportion of new deployments relative to the existing installed base gradually declines, margin volatility is expected to moderate. Given the favorable pricing environment, effective use of asset-backed leverage, and an overall decline in the cost of capital, we still find the risk-reward ratio at current levels attractive," he concluded.
While Slowinski maintains a "positive view" on Nebius's long-term fundamentals, he assigns the stock a "Neutral" rating, citing its substantial year-to-date price appreciation.
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