Abstract
Raymond James will announce fiscal first-quarter results on January 28, 2026 Post Market. Expectations point to mid-teens year-over-year revenue growth, stable operating earnings, and a modestly higher adjusted EPS, with investors focused on client asset trends, net interest income dynamics, and capital markets activity.Market Forecast
For the current quarter, consensus and company projections imply total revenue of USD 3.92 billion, up 12.91% year over year; EBIT is projected at USD 0.74 billion with a 1.93% year-over-year increase, and adjusted EPS is estimated at USD 2.88, up 6.98% year over year. Forecast detail on gross profit margin and net profit margin is not explicitly provided; investors will track operating leverage within Private Client and bank net interest income.Raymond James’s main businesses include Private Client, Capital Markets, Raymond James Bank, and Asset Management, with the Private Client franchise expected to remain the key revenue anchor given resilient fee-based assets and advisory flows. The most promising segment near term is Private Client, supported by a large recurring revenue base and continued client engagement; last quarter revenue was USD 2.66 billion, and underlying growth remained supported by advisory fee stability.
Last Quarter Review
Raymond James’s previous quarter delivered total revenue of USD 3.73 billion, a gross profit margin of 93.07%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 604.00 million, a net profit margin of 16.29%, and adjusted EPS of USD 3.11, with year-over-year adjusted EPS growth of 5.42%. Quarter-on-quarter net profit growth was 38.53%, reflecting stronger operating performance and expense discipline.A key highlight was healthy performance across core client-facing businesses, which helped drive solid earnings quality and improved sequential profitability. Main business revenue mix featured Private Client at USD 2.66 billion, Capital Markets at USD 0.51 billion, Raymond James Bank at USD 0.46 billion, and Asset Management at USD 0.31 billion, offset by USD -0.23 billion of intersegment eliminations and USD 0.01 billion of other revenues.
Current Quarter Outlook
Private Client
The Private Client segment remains central to Raymond James’s earnings trajectory this quarter. With last quarter revenue at USD 2.66 billion, the franchise benefits from a substantial base of recurring advisory fees and cash sweep balances, which tend to stabilize through market cycles. Near-term performance will hinge on client asset levels, net new asset flows, and equity market direction, all of which influence fee revenue timing and magnitude. If market levels hold firm through the quarter, fee billing tailwinds can support mid-single to low-double-digit growth against an already strong baseline, while continued advisor productivity and retention sustain margin integrity.Operationally, Private Client is positioned to leverage technology investment and platform integration to enhance advisor efficiency and client engagement. That can translate to incremental revenue capture without proportional expense growth, aiding operating leverage. The key variable to watch is client cash behavior: a sustained shift from cash into investment solutions typically lifts fee revenue but may modestly reduce bank sweep economics; conversely, elevated cash balances can support net interest income through sweeps but may temper fee growth. Management’s balance of these dynamics—and pricing discipline in advisory programs—will be critical for meeting EPS estimates of USD 2.88.
Raymond James Bank
Raymond James Bank is a pivotal driver of earnings stability through net interest income, with USD 0.46 billion of revenue last quarter. The quarter’s outcome will be shaped by deposit mix, loan growth, and funding costs as the rate backdrop evolves. If deposit retention remains solid and asset yields hold, the bank’s contribution should support consolidated EBIT near USD 0.74 billion. However, any compression in net interest margins from competitive deposit pricing or remix into interest-bearing accounts can constrain profitability, necessitating offset from volume growth or fee businesses.Risk management remains in focus, particularly credit quality in the loan book and provisioning trends. The firm’s historical conservatism in credit and balance sheet management has mitigated volatility, but broader economic shifts can still influence reserve levels and loan demand. Efficient liability management—such as optimizing wholesale funding and deposit costs—will help defend margin, while measured loan growth could sustain revenue even if absolute rates drift lower. Investors will parse disclosures on average balances, cost of deposits, and loan pipeline to gauge sustainability of bank-related net interest income.
Capital Markets
Capital Markets revenue of USD 0.51 billion last quarter underscores its importance as a cyclical earnings lever. Activity in equity and debt underwriting, advisory, and trading determines near-term variability. A constructive market backdrop typically boosts underwriting volumes and advisory fees, supporting operating leverage. If issuance windows remain open and client engagement holds, the segment can contribute upside to revenue relative to projections, strengthening the path to EPS of USD 2.88 and EBIT of USD 0.74 billion.Trading and institutional activity can further augment results if market liquidity and spreads are favorable. Conversely, any slowdown in deal activity or market volatility could temper fee capture. The quarter’s revenue cadence will reflect pipeline conversion in advisory mandates and the breadth of issuer demand across sectors. Operationally, expense controls and disciplined resource allocation within the platform can maintain profitability through activity swings, which is a key factor investors watch when assessing margin resilience in the consolidated results.
Asset Management
Asset Management revenue of USD 0.31 billion last quarter points to a stable, fee-oriented earnings stream linked to assets under management and fee schedules. The quarter’s outcome relies on average market levels and net flows in managed strategies. If equity markets stay constructive and flows remain positive, this business can provide incremental growth, complementing Private Client and Capital Markets contributions. Well-managed fee discipline and product mix can also smooth revenue trends, reinforcing gross margin performance at the group level.The segment’s sensitivity to equity and fixed-income valuations means even modest changes in average AUM can have a noticeable impact on fees. Operational investments in distribution and product development can drive better flow capture, while risk oversight ensures product performance and compliance foundations remain robust. As the most recurring of the fee businesses, Asset Management supports earnings consistency and enhances visibility into quarterly revenue, which can be supportive for valuation in periods of market uncertainty.
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