Zhongtai Securities has released a research report stating that, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and ongoing shifts in market demand, coupled with further structural adjustments, the catering industry has undergone a rapid reshuffle. After showing signs of stabilization and recovery starting in the fourth quarter of 2025, the sector is expected to see an increase in the chain brand ratio, which will benefit leading companies in expanding their market share. The report recommends focusing on: 1) Fast food: Western fast-food leaders with extensive store networks, well-established supply chains, strong R&D and innovation capabilities, and multiple store models; 2) Hot pot supply chains; 3) Convenience foods and semi-prepared ingredients. Key viewpoints from Zhongtai Securities are as follows:
The catering industry has entered a new cycle of improving quality and efficiency after nearly three years of adjustment, characterized by refined operations, consolidation of existing resources, and diversified risk resistance. Since October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of catering revenue in total retail sales has consistently outperformed the overall retail sales growth. Benefiting from the extended Spring Festival holiday in 2026 and the recovery of consumption scenarios, the catering sector has shown a clear rebound, with fundamentals gradually improving.
From a demand perspective, consumers are increasingly favoring categories that offer high frequency, strong experiences, and social engagement. Segments such as hot pot, barbecue, and Western fast food are growing faster than the industry average.
Policy support is strengthening, and the lower-tier markets deserve attention. In recent years, policy guidance has consistently emphasized boosting service consumption. The 2026 Government Work Report also explicitly outlined plans to increase urban and rural residents’ incomes, stimulate offline consumption, and enhance spending vitality in lower-tier markets. The report suggests that the catering industry is likely to benefit from such policy stimuli, with leading chain brands potentially gaining market share through expansion into these areas.
Risk warnings include weak consumer demand, sharp increases in raw material costs, slower-than-expected sales of new products, delays in research report updates, inaccuracies in third-party data, and deviations in market size estimates.
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