NEBIUS closed at USD 220.97, up 1.29%. The session was punctuated by a massive $4.24 million bullish calendar put spread, which dominated options flow and signaled constructive sentiment despite extremely expensive premiums. A separate $1.49 million outright put purchase provided a counterpoint, but overall large-trade capital was decisively bullish, leaning toward stability above $190.
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Options Indicators
NBIS is showing extremely high implied volatility at 168.70%, and with an IV percentile of 98.80%, current option volatility is sitting near the top of its historical range. In other words, volatility is clearly elevated and options are priced expensively. The IV/HV ratio of 1.27 also suggests implied volatility is running above realized volatility, indicating the options market is embedding a substantial premium for expected future movement. The Call/Put volume ratio is 0.69.
Large Trades
A bullish calendar-style put spread worth $4.24 million was the largest displayed trade, built by buying 4,250 contracts of the July 31, 2026 $190 put and selling 4,250 contracts of the July 24, 2026 $190 put. With the long leg costing $3.99 million and the short leg bringing in $0.25 million, the position was established for a net debit and reflects a bullish-to-neutral strategy rather than outright downside speculation. Both strikes sit out of the money versus the $220.97 reference share price, which suggests the trader is positioning around the stock holding above $190 while using the short near-dated put to partially finance the longer-dated downside exposure. Strategically, this structure points to premium-efficient bullish positioning, with the trader likely expecting stability or upside while maintaining some hedge value through the longer-dated put.
A put purchase worth $1.49 million was the other notable large trade, consisting of 2,500 contracts of the July 31, 2026 $170 put bought outright. This single-leg position is bearish, with the strike well out of the money relative to the $220.97 stock price, indicating a lower-probability but directional downside bet or protective hedge against a sharp decline. Because it is a long put, the trade expresses clear demand for downside exposure into that expiration, and its sizable premium outlay shows meaningful conviction in guarding against or speculating on a substantial drop below current levels.
Overall sentiment in NBIS large trades was bullish, with $4.24 million in bullish flow versus $1.49 million in bearish flow, leaving a net bullish difference of $2.75 million. The directional bias is therefore clearly positive, driven mainly by the much larger bullish put-spread structure, which appears designed as a net-debit, premium-efficient way to lean constructive while keeping some protection embedded. Although the outright $170 put purchase shows that some participants still want downside exposure, the balance of capital favored bullish positioning, suggesting market sentiment is moderately constructive rather than aggressively bearish.
Strategy Reference
Given the extreme IV percentile, premium-selling strategies may be attractive; a trader with a neutral-to-bullish view could consider selling the July 24, 2026 $190 put to mimic the short leg of the large spread, though a bull put spread with a lower purchased wing would reduce margin requirements and define risk more cleanly.
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