In late July 2026, field research was conducted in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, and Taizhou and Ningbo, Zhejiang, to investigate the recycled copper sector, including collection, smelting, and high-end processing. Overall, businesses widely reported that "recycled copper raw materials are in extremely high demand this year," with premium scrap copper "being snapped up as soon as it arrives," and buyers even setting up permanent stalls in trading markets to secure supplies. The domestic recycled copper industry is currently in a phase of "raw material shortages, expanding demand, and a push toward high-end products."
Is scrap copper becoming a "hot commodity"? At a renewable resources trading market in Taizhou, Zhejiang, one merchant stated that 2026 is the most competitive year for recycled copper raw materials. A buyer stationed at this market revealed that their procurement volume has increased by 10% to 20% compared to before. Although the average purchase price of scrap copper is up over 20% year-on-year, strong downstream demand and stable margins between buying and selling prices still yield substantial profits. The heat from the demand side directly transmits to the production side. The chairman of a leading coastal recycled copper company in East China said that copper is not hard to sell. The company's fully automated air-conditioner radiator shredding line, built last year, produces 4,500 tonnes of recycled copper annually. It plans to expand again in August 2026, with capacity potentially doubling. At a non-ferrous metals plant in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, recycled copper ingots are weighed, inspected, graded, and sorted before entering the deep smelting stage. The plant's deputy production manager noted that raw materials arrive at a rate of 1,000 to 1,200 tonnes per day, with strong downstream demand resulting in zero inventory.
Notably, a few years ago, 80% of the recycled copper produced by this company went into ordinary cables and low-end profiles. Now, it can achieve a purity of 99.99%, with performance fully comparable to primary electrolytic copper, meeting high-end applications like lithium battery copper foil, server precision components, and ultra-high voltage fittings. Low-carbon attributes have opened up premium pricing. The carbon emissions from producing recycled copper are only about 20% of those from primary copper. High-end, heat-dissipating red copper strip, made from deep-processed recycled copper, is in high demand in international markets. Tech giants are willing to pay a "low-carbon premium" for high-end recycled copper products. Currently, several domestic copper processing companies have established refined carbon footprint accounting databases, providing foreign buyers with complete traceability for green production. The "increase in both price and volume" indicates that China's high-end recycled copper products have gained broad recognition within the green and low-carbon system.
Policy support in July 2026 saw the National Development and Reform Commission issue the "15th Five-Year Plan for Circular Economy Development." The plan clearly sets a target for the resource recycling industry's output value to reach 8 trillion yuan by 2030, with the annual comprehensive utilization of bulk solid waste reaching about 4.5 billion tonnes and the annual recycling of major renewable resources reaching 510 million tonnes. This marks a shift for the circular economy from a supporting role in environmental governance to a key pillar supporting national resource security, green transformation, and industrial growth. Regarding industrial upgrading, addressing the "small, scattered, and weak" nature of the renewable resources industry, the plan specifies measures to improve regulations and standards, refine statistical evaluation, strengthen comprehensive policy support, and enhance industry supervision. This aims to further optimize the industrial layout, accelerate technological process improvements, and cultivate key enterprises. On the fiscal and tax front, effective July 1, 2026, the "Three-Flow Integration Reverse Invoicing" new policy was officially implemented. Together with the 2024 "Reverse Invoicing" Announcement No. 5, it forms a closed-loop regulatory system for the renewable resources industry based on "tax governance through data."
Data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in June 2026, China imported 210,900 physical tonnes of copper waste and scrap, an increase of 10.43% month-on-month and 15.11% year-on-year. The cumulative import volume for the first half of the year was 1.2415 million physical tonnes, an 8.39% year-on-year increase. The import of copper waste ingots also performed strongly, with June imports reaching 48,900 tonnes, up 45% month-on-month and 41% year-on-year. Cumulative imports from January to June totaled 270,100 tonnes, a 19% year-on-year increase. Japan and Thailand are the top two supplier countries, while recycled copper raw materials from the United States continue to decline. Constrained by the "Reverse Invoicing" limits, the pattern of "holding firm prices and unwilling to sell, with price reductions only for moving stock" for compliant supplies is unlikely to reverse in the short term.
Global shifts present the biggest variable in the current global scrap copper market: Europe and the United States are pushing more secondary resources and their processing value to stay local through "capacity expansion and policy regulation." In July 2025, the US issued a notice proposing an export licensing system for premium copper scrap. The EU has passed a new version of the Waste Shipment Regulation, which, from May 21, 2027, will impose stricter access and independent audit requirements for the export of non-hazardous waste to non-OECD countries. According to research by Shanghai Metals Market, buyers in China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia generally report that the procurement discount rate for European and US supplies is continuously rising, and procurement cycles are lengthening, making market competition increasingly fierce. More supply will be absorbed by local smelting and processing companies, gradually reducing the effective supply freely available for cross-border trade. International competition for recycled raw materials will expand from high-grade scrap copper to include waste cables, electronic scrap, mixed copper-bearing materials, and other complex metal resources.
Structural supply-demand mismatch, based on the research findings and the evolution of the global trade landscape, is solidifying the foundation for copper prices that are "more likely to rise than fall." First, a structural shortage of domestic taxable recycled copper raw materials creates a rigid constraint. Under the "Reverse Invoicing" policy, compliant procurement becomes more difficult. The circulation of taxable recycled copper raw materials is relatively low, creating a rigid demand from downstream companies for imported, tax-included recycled copper raw materials to meet production and tax requirements. Second, the tight supply of copper concentrate is forcing smelters to turn to recycled raw materials. In 2026, global copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) remain in negative territory, compelling companies to actively seek recycled copper raw materials and anode copper as supplements. Third, structural demand expansion is not over. Demand for copper from new energy vehicles, AI computing infrastructure, grid upgrades, and consumer electronics continues to grow rapidly. High-end recycled copper products, leveraging their purity and low-carbon attributes, are accelerating the replacement of primary electrolytic copper in areas like lithium battery copper foil, server precision components, and ultra-high voltage fittings. Fourth, the global supply of tradable scrap copper may tighten further. As new projects in Europe and the US gradually come online, combined with clear export policies, Asian buyers must meet demand by expanding raw material sources, improving their ability to process complex materials, enhancing domestic recycling systems, and strengthening long-term cooperation. The cost center for compliant supplies will continue to rise.
This research left a lasting impression not just of the "snapped up upon arrival" scene, but also of the consensus across the industry on "resource control." From buyers stationed at the Taizhou trading market to the leading East China recycled copper company with orders booked through October, and to the smelting and processing companies achieving high-purity breakthroughs, the recycled copper industry is completing its transition from "industrial waste" to "strategic resource." The 8 trillion yuan blueprint in the plan provides unprecedented policy benefits, but realizing these benefits depends on a foundation of "compliance, consolidation, and high-end development." Although the "Reverse Invoicing" new policy will temporarily raise compliance costs and compress recycling profits, it will accelerate the elimination of non-compliant collection points in the long run. Behind the current rise in copper prices, besides macro liquidity and geopolitical premiums, lies the strategic game of a lack of trust between major powers under global shifts and intensified competition for critical mineral resources. With the peak consumption season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaching, the upward trend in copper prices remains unchanged. Over the medium to long term, under the global trend of regionalization and local preference for waste copper resources, the domestic recycled copper industry will undergo a systemic restructuring, and the strategic value of raw materials will continue to rise.
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