Hong Kong Aviation Stocks Remain Under Pressure as Airline Profits Hit by Oil Price Surge and Middle Eastern Airspace Closures

Aviation stocks in Hong Kong continued to face downward pressure. At the time of writing, AIR CHINA (00753) fell 4.04% to HK$6.17, CHINA EAST AIR (00670) dropped 3.91% to HK$4.91, and CHINA SOUTH AIR (01055) declined 1.67% to HK$5.30. The decline comes amid heightened tensions involving Iran, which have driven oil prices up approximately 25% since the start of the year. According to a Goldman Sachs research report, among the various transportation subsectors it covers, airline profits are the most significantly impacted by rising oil prices. Specifically, CHINA SOUTH AIR shows the highest sensitivity: for every 1% increase in oil prices, its projected 2026 earnings are expected to drop by about 4.3%. CHINA EAST AIR and AIR CHINA follow closely, with sensitivities of -4.1% and -3.2%, respectively. In addition, following the announcement of airspace closures by multiple Middle Eastern countries, three major regional carriers—Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways—have issued statements suspending flights. Services to and from key hubs such as Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi have been largely halted. In response, several Chinese airlines, including AIR CHINA, CHINA EAST AIR, and CHINA SOUTH AIR, have released special ticketing arrangements for routes to the Middle East.