According to a recent annual strategy report, CMB International forecasts that AI PCs will achieve widespread adoption by 2026, with product mix optimization expected to offset rising costs. The report highlights that AI PC penetration is set to accelerate, becoming standard in mainstream models.
Lenovo Group (00992) reported that AI PCs already accounted for 33% of its shipments in 3Q25, with double-digit growth anticipated in upcoming quarters. The adoption of next-gen chips like Intel Lunar Lake/Arrow Lake, AMD Ryzen AI, and Qualcomm X Elite will make NPUs a standard feature. While killer applications remain under development, consumer interest in AI capabilities is growing. Higher memory specs and advanced cooling modules in AI PCs are likely to drive price increases.
By 2026, brands are projected to leverage premium AI PC offerings to counterbalance cost pressures from memory price hikes and boost average selling prices.
**Lenovo: Leading AI PC Market with Defensive Inventory Strategy** Lenovo delivered strong performance in FY2Q26 (September quarter), with PC revenue up 17% YoY and global market share reaching a record 25.6%. Its AI PC shipments captured 31% of the global market, reinforcing its leadership. The Intelligent Devices Group maintained a healthy operating margin of 7.3%, supported by premiumization and supply chain efficiency.
With 7–8 months of memory inventory—far exceeding peers’ 2–3 months—Lenovo is shielded from immediate cost pressures. Management remains optimistic about 2026, targeting mid-single-digit PC market growth and outperformance. As a key hardware provider, Lenovo’s collaboration with chipmakers and OS developers positions it to capitalize on the AI PC trend.
**Dell Technologies: Commercial PC Recovery and AI Server Boom** Dell’s Client Solutions Group (CSG) revenue rose 3% YoY in F3Q26 (October quarter), driven by 5% growth in commercial PCs, though consumer PC sales fell 7%. Its AI server backlog surged to $18.4 billion, with orders hitting $12.3 billion—a historic high.
Management acknowledged unprecedented memory price volatility but emphasized its direct-sales model and supply chain scale enable faster cost pass-through. Historically, Dell recoups ~67% of cost increases within 90 days. The firm expressed confidence in margin resilience for 2026, citing component procurement advantages.
For 2026, Dell expects flat PC demand, with upgrades from Windows 10 EOL as a key driver. Its FY27 outlook aligns with long-term targets (2–3% CSG growth), reflecting risk resilience.
**HP: FY26 Guidance Pressured by Memory Costs** HP’s Personal Systems (PS) revenue grew 8% YoY in FY4Q25, with shipments up 7%, led by commercial and premium consumer segments. However, cautious FY26 guidance reflects challenges in cost pass-through, with PS operating margins guided at the lower end (5–7%) of prior expectations.
To mitigate pressures, HP announced a $1 billion cost-saving plan ($300 million in FY26). It projects FY26 PC revenue growth slightly above market (low single digits), relying on AI PC mix and pricing rather than volume.
**Conclusion** Lenovo’s high inventory buffers near-term cost risks; Dell’s direct sales and AI server momentum bolster resilience; while HP faces margin headwinds after explicit guidance cuts.
Comments