According to a research report from GF Securities, under the full-fund benchmark, the proportion of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector in 25Q4 was 6.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from 25Q2, with an overweight ratio of +2.4 percentage points compared to the Wind All Share Index. The baijiu sector, after a four-year adjustment period, is expected to reach a double bottom in both "valuation and earnings." The consumer staples sector entered an adjustment phase starting in 2022, and since 2026, some sub-sectors have already stabilized ahead of others. Looking ahead to 2026, the industry's price per ton is expected to rise moderately, and the report is optimistic about the outperformance opportunities for individual stocks driven by new products and new channels. The main views of GF Securities are as follows:
The proportion of holdings in the food and beverage sector continues to decline, while the overweight ratio from an active equity perspective has bottomed out and begun to rise. Under the full-fund benchmark, the proportion of heavy holdings in the food and beverage sector in 25Q4 was 6.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from 25Q2, with an overweight ratio of +2.4 percentage points compared to the Wind All Share Index. Looking at the types of funds holding the food and beverage sector, the proportion of active equity funds further decreased to 32.3% in 25Q4, while the proportion of passive funds increased to 63.3%. Among them, the proportion of holdings in the food and beverage sector by active equity funds in 25Q4 fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.1% quarter-on-quarter; however, due to a decline in the benchmark holding ratio, the overweight ratio has bottomed out and started to recover.
The proportion of holdings in baijiu saw a slight decline, while holdings in consumer staples showed some recovery. (1) For baijiu: Fund holdings declined slightly in 25Q4. Under the full-fund/active equity benchmarks, the proportion of heavy holdings in baijiu fell by -0.4/-0.3 percentage points to 5.1%/2.9% quarter-on-quarter. The overweight ratios were +2.7 percentage points and +0.5 percentage points, respectively. If the four major institutions are excluded, the proportion of baijiu holdings by active equity funds has fallen into underweight territory for the sixth consecutive quarter. Comparing the two previous lows in baijiu fund holdings, the current sector's overweight ratio has dropped to a historical low point under extremely pessimistic expectations, and the report is optimistic about the potential for increased holdings driven by a subsequent recovery in expectations. (2) For consumer staples: Under the full-fund benchmark, the proportion of holdings in consumer staples in 25Q4 rebounded by 0.12 percentage points to 0.97% quarter-on-quarter, but overall remains in an underweight state (compared to the benchmark by -0.3 percentage points). Except for beer, the proportion of holdings in consumer staples sub-sectors such as dairy, fermented condiments, and comprehensive food products all saw some recovery.
The proportion of holdings in individual baijiu stocks generally declined, while the popularity of holdings in some leading consumer staples companies increased. From a full-fund benchmark perspective, among the top 20 heavily held stocks by funds in 25Q4, only Kweichow Moutai remained as a food and beverage company, with its ranking dropping from second place to fourth. If only active equity fund holdings are considered, Moutai's ranking saw a slight recovery to ninth place. For baijiu, the proportion of fund holdings in individual stocks generally declined, with Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory's holding proportion jumping to second place. For consumer staples, the popularity of fund holdings in some leading individual stocks increased, with holdings in companies like Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group and Anjoy Foods Group showing relatively significant increases in both the proportion of fund holdings and the number of holding funds in 25Q4.
Risk warnings: Economic recovery remains to be observed; recovery in consumer spending power may fall short of expectations; potential food safety issues.
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