Pre-market Briefing
1. U.S. Stocks Split Sharply: Dow Gains 3.03%, Big Tech Soars While AI Hardware Crumbles
Type: Market | Sentiment Impact: Neutral
On November 4, all three major U.S. indices closed higher, with the Dow rising 3.03%, the Nasdaq gaining 1.44%, and the S&P 500 climbing 1.58%. Large-cap technology stocks led the advance, with Microsoft and Amazon each surging over 6%, and Apple up more than 5%. In contrast, AI hardware and semiconductor stocks bucked the trend, with Seagate Technology dropping over 8%, Micron Technology and SanDisk falling 7%, Western Digital losing more than 6%, CoreWeave plunging over 9%, and Marvell Technology and Lumentum each declining more than 7%.
The divergence stems from two opposing expectation threads. House Democratic Leader Jeffries stated he would push legislation to terminate tariff measures and end the Iran war, pulling down both tariff and energy cost expectations simultaneously. Meanwhile, Qualcomm issued guidance for the next fiscal quarter with earnings per share of $2.15 to $2.35, with the midpoint below analyst estimates of $2.32, sending its shares down more than 5% after hours.
2. International Oil Prices Plunge, with WTI and Brent Both Falling Over 8% Intraday
Type: Market | Sentiment Impact: Negative
International oil prices fell sharply on November 4, with WTI and Brent crude futures both dropping more than 8% intraday. WTI briefly broke below $88 per barrel, while Brent fell below $95 per barrel. The Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures contract 2612 closed down 7.07% in night trading at 628.40 yuan per barrel. Shanghai gold closed up 2.61% in night trading, while Shanghai silver rose 4.80%.
The trigger was the Democratic leader's pledge to push for an end to the Iran war, causing geopolitical risk premiums to recede. Falling oil prices compress revenue for oil extraction and oilfield services segments, while simultaneously lowering fuel and raw material costs for downstream sectors such as aviation and chemicals.
3. Central Bank Launches 300 Billion Yuan Outright Reverse Repo Today with a 3-Month Term
Type: Macro | Sentiment Impact: Positive
The central bank announced on November 4 that, in order to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, it will conduct a 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on November 5, 2026, using a fixed quantity, rate tender, and multiple-price award method, with a term of 3 months (91 days). The maturity date is February 4, 2027, postponed in case of holidays. Today also sees 115 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 500 billion yuan of 3-month outright reverse repos maturing. The outright reverse repo has a longer term than the 7-day reverse repo, injecting cross-quarter medium-term liquidity.
4. October Global DRAM Contract Average Price Hits Another Record High, NAND Sustains Peak Levels
Type: Industry | Sentiment Impact: Positive
In October of this year, the global DRAM contract average price once again refreshed its all-time high, while NAND flash average prices sustained last month's peak levels. DRAM and NAND contract prices serve as the pricing benchmark for memory manufacturers and module makers' next-quarter shipments. Rising prices directly boost their revenue and gross margins, while also driving up material costs for servers, smartphones, PCs, and other finished devices. On the same day, U.S. memory stocks fell against the trend, with Seagate Technology down over 8%, Micron Technology and SanDisk down 7%, and Western Digital down more than 6%, showing a divergence between prices and stock performance.
Investment Calendar
November 5 – November 10: The 9th China International Import Expo is held in Shanghai.
Institutional Views
1. Guotai Haitong: The new policy on ready-home sales raises development thresholds and accelerates the contraction of new home supply, promoting long-term industry stability.
2. Guotou Securities: The ChiNext Index's pullback has reached the 60% limit of its range gain, and conditions for a large-scale rebound are accumulating.
3. Guosheng Securities: The 10-year government bond yield breaking below 1.6% does not mean the bond market rally is over, and there is still room for further rate declines at year-end and early next year.
Positive and Negative Outlook
1. Policy Path After the U.S. Midterm Elections' "Blue Wave"
Type: Policy Focus
CITIC Securities: More aggressive policy changes still need to wait for the 2028 to 2029 presidential election and transition cycle. The impact of state-level elections on data center construction is more worth tracking.
2. Shaanxi Plans to Include System Operation Fees in Time-of-Use Electricity Price Floating, Widening Peak-Valley Spread
Type: Policy Focus
Everbright Securities: Energy storage charging cost reduction and discharge value addition form a dual benefit, and project returns are expected to be significantly enhanced.
3. Quantum Technology Listed as First of Six Future Industries, "15th Five-Year Plan" May See Industrialization Turning Point
Type: Institutional Hot Commentary
Huafu Securities: Laser systems are indispensable core components in the three major fields of quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum precision measurement.
Announcement Summary
Positive Announcements
1. Sanhuan Group: Plans to repurchase company shares for 500 million to 1 billion yuan, with a repurchase price cap of 100 yuan per share.
2. Asymchem Laboratories: Plans to repurchase company shares for 500 million to 700 million yuan, for employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives and cancellation.
3. Hengtong Optic-Electric: Controlling shareholder Hengtong Group plans to increase holdings by 400 million to 600 million yuan within 12 months.
Negative Announcements
1. Tianshan Material: Under investigation by the CSRC for suspected information disclosure violations.
2. Jiangsu Leili: Actual controller, director, and general manager Su Da under investigation by the CSRC for suspected information disclosure and share reduction violations.
3. Huaci Shares: Shareholder holding over 5%, Xinhualian Asia, mistakenly reduced 182,400 shares and was ordered by the Hunan Securities Regulatory Bureau to buy back and remit the price difference.
Overseas Markets
On November 4, all three major U.S. indices closed higher, with the Dow up 3.03%, the Nasdaq up 1.44%, and the S&P 500 up 1.58%. The House Democratic leader pledged to push for terminating tariffs and ending the Iran war, lowering energy and tariff cost expectations, with capital rotating out of AI hardware into consumer, financial, and software sectors. Memory and optical communication stocks weakened against the trend, with Seagate Technology down over 8%, Micron Technology down 7%, and Lumentum down more than 7%. The Livermore China Concept Stock Leaders Index rose 1.7%, with KE Holdings and Bilibili up over 5%, and Alibaba up more than 4%.
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