German Government Bonds Decline as Soaring Energy Prices Fuel ECB Rate Hike Expectations

Deep News03-13

German government bonds fell across the board as rising oil and natural gas prices prompted money markets to increase bets on an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank next year. Traders have raised their expectations for ECB rate hikes in 2027 by 3 basis points, now anticipating a monetary policy tightening of 52 basis points by mid-next year. Meanwhile, swap transactions suggest a 47 basis point increase by year-end, unchanged from expectations on Thursday. The UK gilt market is expected to focus primarily on rising energy prices, largely overlooking weaker-than-expected UK GDP data for January. Swap contracts continue to price in a 22 basis point rate hike from the Bank of England by the end of the year, consistent with prior expectations.

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