SoFi Is Crushing It And The Stock Is Still Cheap

seekingalpha2022-03-03

SummarySoFi’s shares surged 18% after delivery of the firm's Q4’21 earnings card.SoFi is looking at sextupling its adjusted EBITDA in FY 2022.SoFi’s growth in the personal finance space is still ...

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Comments

Bovinity
2022-03-04
Bovinity
Thanks for the insight
HENRYCSC
2022-03-03
HENRYCSC
Buy
Vincent1968
2022-03-03
Vincent1968
Like
Superinvest
2022-03-03
Superinvest
This share SoFi has more upside...
Popo123
2022-03-03
Popo123
Buy ! :)
Looyusooi
2022-03-03
Looyusooi
Ok

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The digital personal finance company also ended the year with strong customer acquisition, beating my high-case estimate by 200 thousand. Shares of SoFi are ripe for a rebound and deserve to trade significantly higher!Strong account growth in the fourth-quarterSoFi ended FY 2021 in the best shape the company has ever been in, chiefly because of strong customer acquisition and accelerating profit growth. The pandemic fueled SoFi's member growth and I expected the personal finance company to end the year with 3.3M members. SoFi did even better than that, ending the year with a massive 3.46M-strong member base. The platform added 523 thousand new members to its platform just in the fourth-quarter and 1.61M new customers in total in FY 2021. Although member acquisition rates decelerated from 96%in Q3'21to 87% in Q4'21, adding more than half a million members just in the last quarter of the year shows that SoFi doesn't really have to worry about attracting new customers to its platform.The key to SoFi's growth lies in its ability to roll out new lending and financial services products, but especially the latter. The SoFi platform offered more than 5.17M products to its members by year-end 2021, showing 105% year over year growth. Growth has been especially strong in financial services products which saw offerings go from 1.6M in Q4'20 to 4.1M in Q4'21… indicating that the financial services category- which includes cryptocurrencies, investment products and insurances- keeps driving SoFi's entire company performance: 79% of all products are FS products today compared to just 64% in the year-earlier period.SoFi also serves the commercial market through its Galileo platform. Galileo is a digital payments platform and offers small and midsize businesses financial services APIs and other products to process payments. Galileo accounts continued to surge throughout FY 2021 and the platform ended the year with 100M accounts, showing 67% year over year growth.Optimistic outlook for FY 2022Shares of SoFi rallied more than 18% in extended trading Tuesday after the company submitted its outlook for FY 2022. The earnings guidance for FY 2022 must be seen in connection with SoFi's past achievements regarding top line and EBITDA growth.2021 was the first year in the firm's history in which SoFi was solidly profitable on an adjusted EBITDA basis. SoFi's annual adjusted net revenues increased 63% year over year to $1.01B in FY 2021, but achieving adjusted EBITDA profitability shows that the firm reached a critical milestone in FY 2021. SoFi's adjusted EBITDA in FY 2021 was $30M, showing a $75M improvement over FY 2020. The increase in profitability is due to strong customer acquisition and increasing adoption of FS products on the SoFi platform.SoFi expects to do $1.57B in adjusted net revenues this year, which implies 55% year over year revenue growth. SoFi, however, also expects a 6 X factor increase in its adjusted EBITDA to $180M and a massive improvement in its EBITDA margin from 3% in FY 2021 to 11% in FY 2022… and that's what made SoFi's shares jump yesterday.I still believe SoFi's commercial growth in the personal finance industry is cheap, especially because shares went through another down leg lately. The firm is expected to see revenues of $2.1B in FY 2023 and revenue estimates are likely going to rise. The real reason to buy SoFi, however, relates to the firm achieving what many scalable platform businesses have not achieved yet: SoFi is generating profitable growth. The P-S ratio for SoFi is 4.5 X, but shares have sold for more than twice this P-S ratio in the fourth-quarter of 2021.Data byYChartsRisks with SoFiAs much as I like SoFi and the strategic direction the company is going in with its bank charter, there is one major problem that I believe could indicate slower member and revenue growth going forward: SoFi does not have a moat. As competition increases in the fintech sector, customer churn rates are going to increase as well. Since fintech companies compete primarily on margins, new fintechs can easily move into the space and grow market share by offering smaller-margin financial services products or deploy artificial intelligence solutions in a more efficient way. What this means for SoFi is that more fintech competition will likely increase pressure on customer acquisition and revenue growth going forward which could add pressure on SoFi's sales multiplier factor.Final thoughtsStrong member acquisition in the fourth-quarter showed that SoFi is a company any investor should pay attention to. Ending the year with more than 3.5M members significantly beat my estimate of 3.3M customers and the platform will continue to grow rapidly. I believe SoFi's growth in the digital personal finance space has become deeply discounted in recent months, in large part because the market has no taste for growth stocks right now. The upbeat earnings outlook for FY 2022, however, indicates that SoFi is executing its commercial strategy very well and the stock is set to revalue higher!","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9031937462,"gmtCreate":1646407769947,"gmtModify":1676534126866,"author":{"id":"4106144276611560","authorId":"4106144276611560","name":"Bovinity","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6b747624adb85f25be9feb55640f7e4a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4106144276611560","authorIdStr":"4106144276611560"},"htmlText":"Thanks for the insight&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for the insight&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for the insight","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9031937462","repostId":1148927982,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9033504553,"gmtCreate":1646305317803,"gmtModify":1676534114954,"author":{"id":"3575091428590185","authorId":"3575091428590185","name":"HENRYCSC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d47a6dec25b21dc547a5b982674c499","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575091428590185","authorIdStr":"3575091428590185"},"htmlText":"Buy&nbsp;","listText":"Buy&nbsp;","text":"Buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033504553","repostId":1148927982,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9033249557,"gmtCreate":1646296321415,"gmtModify":1676534114121,"author":{"id":"3586393315819735","authorId":"3586393315819735","name":"Vincent1968","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7f106edb1e06baf3c68462c050422f46","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586393315819735","authorIdStr":"3586393315819735"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033249557","repostId":1148927982,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9033240790,"gmtCreate":1646296175475,"gmtModify":1676534114113,"author":{"id":"3582095724629858","authorId":"3582095724629858","name":"Superinvest","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9f10e513c4f0d98c03cc13f0c595ba6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582095724629858","authorIdStr":"3582095724629858"},"htmlText":"This share SoFi has more upside...&nbsp;","listText":"This share SoFi has more upside...&nbsp;","text":"This share SoFi has more upside...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033240790","repostId":1148927982,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9033251952,"gmtCreate":1646293094815,"gmtModify":1676534113834,"author":{"id":"4102506918623310","authorId":"4102506918623310","name":"Popo123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/486873c14795c94fa86e194c8bec2cd7","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4102506918623310","authorIdStr":"4102506918623310"},"htmlText":"Buy ! :)&nbsp;","listText":"Buy ! :)&nbsp;","text":"Buy ! :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033251952","repostId":1148927982,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9033253211,"gmtCreate":1646293036454,"gmtModify":1676534113810,"author":{"id":"4100437715079400","authorId":"4100437715079400","name":"Looyusooi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4100437715079400","authorIdStr":"4100437715079400"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9033253211","repostId":1148927982,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":232,"commentSize":21,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1148927982"}