[Dissecting the Market] After a small "sweet date" yesterday, the market was expected to rise today, but it only opened higher before fizzling out. The "invisible hand" is once again regulating the market, with broad-based ETFs continuing to fall on heavy volume. For instance, the ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF (510330) saw turnover exceed 22 billion yuan, hitting a record high; the result of falling on heavy volume is predictable. The Hong Kong market experienced a minor surge before retreating throughout the day, closing down 0.28%. According to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), it held its 2026 system work conference: continuously maintaining fair trading order, strictly investigating and punishing illegal activities such as excessive speculation and market manipulation, and resolutely preventing severe market fluctuations. "Seriously rectifying the chaos of excessive speculation" has become a new highlight in trading supervision. Clearly, the基调 is steady and standardized development. Consequently, recent high-flying stocks targeted by hot money have been decimated, forcing capital towards companies with solid earnings and positive trends.
However, there are positive developments. The Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China yielded positive outcomes, culminating in a joint statement from the leaders' meeting today. Consensus was reached in many areas, with a series of memorandums of understanding signed. The central banks of both countries renewed their bilateral local currency swap agreement. The most substantive achievement, as Carney stated on the 16th, is: "Canada has agreed to allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter the Canadian market, subject to the 6.1% Most-Favored-Nation tariff rate... this restores the level before the trade friction." The previous tariff rate was 100%. This represents a massive shift and is quite significant, marking a new stage in China-Canada relations. Canada has set a good example, which is expected to influence European countries. Europe is beginning to reflect on what it has truly gained from being mired in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the purpose of endless attrition. The former Europe-Russia cheap oil and gas partnership was formidable, but now, aside from economic strain, increasing poverty, and marginalization, no benefits are visible, not even a seat at the negotiating table. If one argues they've won some abstract victories, just look at what the "beacon" has done? The peace prize awarded by Norway was passed on by Machado to Trump—isn't that particularly ironic? Germany seems to be figuring things out a bit; today, Merz stated: Russia is a European country, and a balanced relationship must be achieved. This signals a likely significant policy shift in the EU's relations with Russia.
Returning to the present, on Thursday, the US and the Taiwan authorities of China reached a "trade agreement," claiming it would reduce tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductor exports to the US and guide more Taiwanese investment into the US. TSMC's CEO announced plans to build a "mega wafer fab cluster" in the US, purchasing an additional 900 acres as the original land is insufficient. TSMC's first US factory has begun mass production, with progress better than expected. The company has moved the production schedule for its second Arizona factory forward to the second half of 2027, and construction of the third factory will accelerate this year. TSMC also stated it has begun applying for permits for a fourth factory. Note this timeline—time waits for no one. The US is also vigorously developing its semiconductor industry through TSMC. Therefore, we must accelerate the pace of domestic chip production. Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), mentioned yesterday, rose over 7% again, and SMIC (00981) gained over 2%.
According to the latest research report from TrendForce: In the first quarter of 2026, as DRAM manufacturers massively shift advanced processes and new capacity to server and HBM applications to meet AI server demand, supply for other markets will severely tighten. Overall Conventional DRAM contract prices are expected to increase by 55%-60%. The entire semiconductor equipment and materials supply chain has become a target for capital追捧. GigaDevice (03986): As a Chinese chip company achieving global parity in multiple core memory and control chip areas, it directly benefits, surging nearly 14% today. CIG (06166) rose over 4%. SICC (02631): The application of silicon carbide in emerging fields like AR glasses, AIDC, and advanced packaging continues to rise, directly opening long-term growth space. It surged over 13% today, while CIG (06166), mentioned yesterday, gained over 4% again.
From January 6-9, CES 2026 was held in Las Vegas, with smart glasses becoming a hot trend. Chinese brands accounted for over 90% of the core exhibition area, with more than 50 companies participating, including TCL RayNeo, XREAL, INMO, Rokid, Xingji Meizu, and Alibaba. TCL RayNeo launched the world's first binocular full-color AR glasses supporting eSIM functionality, integrating an eSIM communication module and 4G protocol support for standalone operation without a phone; Rokid released the new AI glasses model RokidStyle for overseas markets, weighing only 38.5 grams; XGIMI launched the smart glasses brand MemoMind, with the monocular Memo Air Display weighing just 28.9 grams. Meta and EssilorLuxottica plan to increase AI smart glasses production capacity to 20 million units or more by year-end; they are also discussing the potential to establish annual capacity exceeding 30 million units if demand is strong enough. Conant (02276), a leading domestic resin lens manufacturer, has a core advantage in its first-mover status with high-refractive-index 1.74 lenses and an innovative C2M service model. The company has partnered with several major 3C leaders to布局 smart glasses, promising growth. It rose over 10% today.
On January 15, State Grid announced that fixed asset investment during the "16th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. The increased national investment primarily aims to better match the power demand from data center operations. We Sheng Holdings (03393): Has secured orders from strategic clients like GDS and ByteDance and is actively developing large customers. Its ADO business is entering a rapid growth phase, recently introducing strategic shareholder Boyu Capital. The company's data center business orders and revenue are expected to have significant growth space this year. Furthermore, its ADO subsidiary, Weiyuan Energy, is advancing towards an A-share listing, which will further enhance valuation. It rose over 10% today. Dongfang Electric (01072) gained nearly 5%.
As mentioned yesterday, Hong Kong property stocks performed strongly. CLSA predicts Hong Kong property prices could rise 5% this year, with properties focused on luxury sales showing sustained strength. New World Development (00017), mentioned previously, is expected to capture more market share in the Tsim Sha Tsui area and rose over 5% again. Hysan Development (00014) gained over 4%, and Wharf REIC (01997) rose nearly 3%. Several institutions collectively turned bullish on LI NING (02331) today. A comprehensive look reveals key catalysts: the Milan Winter Olympics (opening February 6) are expected to boost brand exposure and sales; strong growth in running and badminton categories, with improvements anticipated in the weaker basketball and sportswear categories by 2026. Management expects 2025 revenue may slightly exceed previous guidance for year-on-year parity, while the net profit margin will reach a "strong high-single-digit" figure (close to 10%). Currently, LI NING is a leader in the "Guochao" trend, directly competing with major international sportswear brands. It rose over 4% today, hitting a one-and-a-half-year high.
Baotou Steel and Northern Rare Earth announced they will raise rare earth concentrate prices for the first quarter, coupled with catalysts from news of China's export controls to Japan. Rare earth prices are expected to strengthen in the short term. JL MAG Rare-Earth (06680) reported full-year profit growth of up to 160%, rising over 5%.
[Sector Focus] January 16 - European natural gas prices are set for their largest weekly gain in over two years, as unusually cold weather triggers traders to scramble to cover short positions, indicating a shift in market sentiment. The benchmark futures are up over 20% this week, breaking a months-long pattern of narrow fluctuations. This rally signals a major shift in market dynamics, with strong heating demand combining with resurgent geopolitical risks. At 10:02 Amsterdam time, the European benchmark, the Dutch front-month futures, rose 4.7% to 34.73 euros per megawatt-hour. The weekly gain is poised to be the largest since October 2023. Related stocks: KUNLUN ENERGY (00135), ENN Energy (02688), China Resources Gas (01193), CIMC Enric (03899).
[Stock Pick] SANHUA (02050): Humanoid Robot Mass Production Imminent, Liquid Cooling Demand Booms. Prominent Silicon Valley angel investor Jason Calacanis recently predicted that Tesla's upcoming Optimus V3 humanoid robot will surpass the company's achievements in automobiles; OpenAI is seeking to strengthen its US-based hardware supply chain and find partners to enter consumer devices, robotics, and cloud data center fields. The company预增 its 2025 performance. It expects to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.87~4.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%~50%; and net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items of 3.68~4.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%~48%. Commentary: Overseas demand for refrigeration and air conditioning control components continues to expand, driving stable growth in refrigeration product exports; benefiting from the explosion in data center liquid cooling demand driven by AI computing power, the company provides core components like valves, pumps, and heat exchangers for liquid cooling systems. In H1 2025, its traditional refrigeration business achieved revenue of 10.39 billion yuan, up 25.5% year-on-year; with a gross margin of 28.2%, up 0.65 percentage points year-on-year. Affected by the production and sales of its key major client Tesla, automotive components revenue in H1 2025 was 5.87 billion yuan, up only 8.8% year-on-year. Benefiting from improved Tesla production and sales—Q3 global Tesla deliveries were 497,000 units (up 7.4% YoY)—the automotive components business accelerated its recovery. Furthermore, the company's reliance on Tesla is gradually decreasing, with international giants like General Motors and domestic new automakers like Xiaomi, Li Auto, and XPeng beginning to contribute significant growth. The company has also made breakthroughs with previously slower European clients like Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and Stellantis. The company is deeply tied to Tesla and is a core supplier of electromechanical actuators for Tesla's humanoid robot, providing integrated products including rotary and linear actuators. Currently, the company has established a dedicated humanoid robot business unit and built a production base in Thailand to support customer mass production needs, expected to begin contributing significant revenue increments from 2026.
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