Copper is no longer dismissed as mere "scrap metal." Against a backdrop of non-ferrous metals collectively hitting new highs, investment-grade copper bars have now entered the market. Shops in Shenzhen's Shuibei district have tentatively launched investment copper bars with a purity of 999.9, available in 500-gram and 1000-gram specifications, though the 1000-gram bar is more common. The quoted price for a single 1000-gram bar ranges from 180 yuan to 280 yuan. Besides physical stores, similar products can also be found on websites like Taobao.
The sudden emergence of investment copper bars has sparked heated discussions on many social media platforms, with numerous photos of the physical "investment copper bars" circulating and attracting significant inquiries. Searching for "investment copper bars" on Taobao yields numerous sellers and products. One item, named "Fortune Copper Bar," is priced at 149.88 yuan for a 1000-gram bar made of pure red copper, and has already been purchased by over 100 people. Furthermore, sellers are also offering these bars on platforms like Xianyu. Some shops even provide customization services, such as adding text for about 5 yuan per character. A user commented on a seller's page, "24K pure copper," adding, "We can no longer call it scrap metal." Data from Tonghuashun shows that in 2025, spot copper prices fluctuated upwards, starting the year at 73,830 yuan per ton and rising to 99,180 yuan per ton by year-end, marking a full-year increase of 34.34%. Particularly in December of last year, Shanghai copper futures briefly surged to 102,660 yuan per ton,刷新ing a historical high. Since the start of 2026, copper prices have continued their strong upward trend. On January 14, LME copper futures reached a record high of $13,407 per ton; domestic copper futures also soared above 100,000 yuan per ton. As of 12:10 Beijing time on January 20, LME copper was quoted at $12,913.5 per ton, while the main Shanghai copper futures contract was reported at 101,000 yuan per ton. This round of price increases for copper and other non-ferrous metals can be traced back to November 2025. It is primarily driven by a triple resonance of factors: persistently tight global copper mine supply, trade flow restructuring triggered by anticipated US tariffs, and accelerated demand growth from AI and new energy infrastructure. Coupled with strengthened macro-financial attributes, these factors have pushed prices to刷新 historical highs. Internationally, LME copper prices rose nearly 40% in 2025, with the vast majority of gains concentrated in the final two months. The robust rise in copper prices is not only due to surging demand and related tariff policies but also benefits from the continuously weakening US Dollar Index (DXY) this year—making it cheaper for investors holding other currencies to purchase metals like copper. Additionally, the downward trajectory of global interest rates, led by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, is a core driver pushing copper prices higher. Xiao Chuankang, an analyst from Mysteel's Copper Division, stated that the price increase benefits from tight supply and growing demand. On the supply side, signals from the China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group about a 10% reduction in mining capacity, along with a significant increase in cancelled warrants for LME copper inventories, have sparked market concerns about a supply shortage next year. On the demand side, electricity needs driven by global energy transition and AI computing power are fueling copper consumption growth. External factors also provide support for rising copper prices. Wang Jiechao, an analyst at China Securities Co., Ltd., noted that Fed interest rate cuts, combined with copper's crucial strategic role in the restructuring of global industrial chains, favor high premiums for the resource-scarce copper. Behind the step-by-step rise in copper prices lies pressure on the manufacturing sector. Recently, some air conditioner manufacturers have already indicated plans to raise prices in response. On December 4 last year, Midea Group (Note: The original text says "Meibo Group" but context suggests "Midea," a major AC manufacturer; if "Meibo" is a specific company, it would be retained as 'Meibo Group') stated in its "Notice on Price Adjustments for Midea Air Conditioners in December" that, to effectively alleviate cost pressures, ensure stable product supply and quality assurance, implement the cooperation principle of "early payment, early benefit; more payment, more benefit," and protect distributors' profit margins, it would adjust its price policy for December. Specifically, the original sales policy effective in November 2025 would remain valid until December 15. Starting December 16, purchase prices would be increased by 5% based on the November prices, with detailed product price lists to be issued separately by regional managers. "Compounded by surging demand for copper materials from industries like new energy and photovoltaics, insufficient upstream supply, sharp inventory reductions, the pressure from raw material costs has exceeded companies' absorption capacity, leading to continuously rising costs for complete air conditioning units," Midea Group坦言 in the notice.
Most investment banks remain bullish on copper's performance this year. Despite the sharp price surge, market optimism about copper's future trajectory persists. Most institutions believe that, driven by factors like supply disruptions and policy changes, capital will flood into the market, potentially pushing copper prices to new highs in 2026. Citigroup holds a particularly aggressive view, predicting copper prices will break through $13,000 per ton in early 2026, possibly even reaching $15,000 per ton in the second quarter. Key drivers include strong demand from the energy transition and AI sectors, particularly the massive copper requirements for electrification, grid expansion, and data center construction. J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts a refined copper deficit of approximately 330,000 tons in 2026, with an average price near $12,075 per ton, peaking around $12,500 per ton in the second quarter. An industry analyst mentioned that the US continues to hoard copper inventories due to arbitrage opportunities, which will further exacerbate global supply tightness. Additionally, physical copper hoarding in the US is gradually eroding international market supply, particularly making LME inventories increasingly tight. Mine output reductions are also a key factor in the copper supply shortage. Deutsche Bank described 2025 as a "severely disrupted year" in a report, noting that major copper producers have successively lowered production forecasts, expecting a reduction of about 300,000 tons in copper output for 2026. The continuous rise in copper prices is expected to negatively impact energy-intensive industries, potentially further squeezing their profit margins. However, some investment banks argue that the rapid short-term price increase has already dampened market demand. Goldman Sachs warns that copper prices above $13,000 per ton are difficult to sustain long-term, predicting LME copper prices will fall back to $11,200 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2026. Goldman believes the recent rapid price increase is primarily due to "structural tightness" under US tariff policies and expects prices to revert to the "true state" of global supply and demand once the tariff path becomes clearer. "The second quarter of this year will be a turning point for copper market sentiment," Goldman Sachs stated in its report. The bank raised its LME copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 from $11,525 to $12,750 per ton, citing tightening inventories outside the US due to capital inflows and supply flows redirected towards the US. However, it maintained its forecast of $11,200 per ton for the fourth quarter of 2026 unchanged, implying significant downward pressure on prices in the second half of the year.
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