While Bitcoin has stabilized near the $65,000 mark, Glassnode emphasizes that the uptrend is not yet confirmed, highlighting significant divergence in market signals. From a microstructural perspective, since hitting a low of $58,000 in late June, buying interest in the spot market has increased, but overall exchange trading volumes remain low, indicating a lack of broad participation. In the derivatives market, directional trading occurs frequently, with perpetual contract futures buyer activity exceeding normal ranges; however, open interest and funding rates show no signs of overheating, and leverage risk is manageable. In the options market, the cost of hedging against downside risk has declined, reflecting a short-term easing of cautious sentiment. These contradictory signals suggest that while a moderate rise in leverage reduces the risk of cascading liquidations, speculative enthusiasm is limited, and market confidence is gradually recovering but has not yet formed the firm optimism needed for a bull run.
Fundamentally, there is a structural contradiction between the recovery of institutional demand and the weakness of on-chain activity. Data compiled by Glassnode shows that the proportion of short-term capital is rising, implying a return of price-sensitive investors, which typically signals renewed interest from retail investors and institutions, providing potential support for price increases. However, overall blockchain activity remains sluggish, with active addresses and related fee revenue at low levels, and the network's basic usage has not seen a clear recovery. More critically, despite Bitcoin's rising share of total profits, the actual realized losses still exceed actual realized gains, indicating that some holders are still selling assets at a loss, and internal market supply-demand dynamics are not fully balanced.
Bitcoin has moved past its initial recovery phase, but the lack of broad market demand and weak on-chain activity are hindering the establishment of a strong upward cycle. The coming weeks will be crucial to observe whether spot market liquidity and on-chain activity improve. While price stability at $65,000 following the late June decline is a positive sign, Glassnode data confirms that the market remains in a transition period. It is insufficient to rely solely on price action; a comprehensive assessment of spot market liquidity and on-chain metrics is necessary to confirm whether a sustained recovery can be achieved.
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