Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
Gold market news and interpretation: On Friday, during the early Asian trading session, spot gold is trading within a narrow range, currently hovering around $2,020 per ounce. Spot gold experienced a volatile rebound on Thursday, reclaiming the crucial psychological level of $2,000. This recovery was not coincidental but rather a chain reaction triggered by the latest US inflation data. The seemingly high PCE inflation reading, after meeting expectations, actually alleviated extreme market fears regarding aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. This led to a weaker US dollar and a retreat in bond yields, injecting strong upward momentum into gold prices. This development not only reshaped short-term sentiment in the gold market but also revealed deeper macroeconomic dynamics for investors.
Gold technical analysis: Yesterday, gold opened flat at $2,006, briefly surged to $2,018 before facing resistance and pulling back. It continued its downward move, breaking through multiple support levels to touch a low of $1,963. After bargain-hunting emerged at the lows, the price stabilized and formed a base. Following the realization of bearish news during the US session, which completed the final leg down, funds buying the dip propelled the price to rally sharply to the day's high of $2,044. However, gold failed to hold above the $2,045 level after multiple attempts, indicating waning bullish momentum. It then consolidated at higher levels towards the close, finishing at $2,026. The daily candle formed a small bullish candle with long upper and lower shadows, signaling a bottom-probing and corrective pattern. Support below remains effective, while resistance around $2,045 is substantial, indicating intensified divergence between bulls and bears. A clear unilateral trend is unlikely in the short term.
On the four-hour chart, gold has formed a deep V-shaped reversal, with strong support evident around $1,960. The momentum for a sharp short-term decline appears exhausted, and the market has shifted from a unilateral downtrend to range-bound consolidation. Short-term moving averages have turned upward, providing near-term support. The middle Bollinger Band around $2,040-$2,045 acts as a strong resistance zone. The overall channel remains biased downward, suggesting the current rebound is merely a technical correction, and the medium-term bearish structure has not reversed. Regarding indicators, the MACD's green bars are shortening, and a bullish crossover is forming at low levels, indicating weak corrective bullish momentum. The KDJ has entered overbought territory, limiting further upside potential and creating a need for a pullback after any rally. Today's early session opened at $2,028. A slight rebound during the Asian session is likely to be capped by the strong resistance at $2,045, with a high probability of a rally followed by a decline. The European session is expected to continue the range-bound movement. Focus will be on the potential for amplified volatility during the US session due to position adjustments for the weekly close, which could intensify the battle between bulls and bears. A decisive break below the $2,000 level would open the door for bears to target $1,959. Conversely, a firm hold above $2,045 would allow bulls to test $2,070. Overall, the suggested short-term trading strategy for gold today is primarily to sell on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance is focused around the $2,050-$2,100 zone, while key short-term support lies around the $1,950-$1,900 area.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends:
Crude oil market news and interpretation: On Friday (Beijing time, June 26th), during the early Asian trading session, US crude oil is trading around $71.54 per barrel. Oil prices closed sharply higher on Thursday, gaining over 2%, after a cargo ship was struck by an unidentified projectile near Oman (two US officials later indicated it was fired upon by Iran). This incident sparked market concerns over the prospects for restored oil supply from the Middle East. Brent crude rose 2.41% to $74.89 per barrel, while US crude gained 2.29%. Goldman Sachs anticipates that even if sanctions relief is extended, Iranian crude oil production will not see a significant rebound. UBS has revised down its Brent price forecasts to $85 per barrel (for end-September and end-December) and $80 per barrel (for end-March and end-June 2027). Additionally, US gasoline and diesel futures rose approximately 5% and 4% respectively. Analysts also believe that short-covering and bargain-hunting following oversold conditions provided technical support for the rally, even though both major contracts have been in oversold territory for over a week.
Crude oil technical analysis: From a daily chart perspective, the moving average system is gradually diverging downward, indicating the medium-term objective trend direction is entering a downtrend. Crude oil prices have broken below the lower boundary support that held for over three months, signaling strengthening bearish momentum. It is anticipated that the medium-term trend will primarily follow a downward rhythm. On the short-term (1-hour) chart, the crude oil trend has ended its continuous decline and is rebounding upward. The short-term objective trend direction is entering a transition phase, with bullish momentum strengthening. Prices have broken above the depicted downtrend line. It is expected that intraday crude oil movements will oscillate and hover around the trendline. Overall, the suggested trading strategy for crude oil today is primarily to sell on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Key short-term resistance is focused around the $73.5-$75.5 zone, while key short-term support lies around the $69.0-$67.0 area.
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