**【Market Dissection】** The sharp overnight decline in the three major US stock indices represents a typical catch-up drop; given the circumstances, it's unrealistic for US markets to remain insulated. Expectations are that former President Trump's speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos might deliver some positive signals, otherwise US stocks could face further risks. Today, both mainland and Hong Kong markets showed signs of stabilization. The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.37% after a volatile session. According to various media reports, the US will eliminate approximately 200 positions across NATO and its subordinate bodies starting January 21, affecting nearly 30 organizations. This adjustment aligns with the strategic shift to "redirect more resources to the Western Hemisphere." The European Union is undoubtedly deeply concerned. Actions centered on US interests, such as the push for Greenland and upcoming Russia-Ukraine negotiations, are all exerting pressure on the EU. This goes beyond mere disrespect; it's akin to being ground down. Even Canada, the closest US neighbor, is on high alert and has begun preparing contingency plans for a potential US invasion. Amid global turbulence, China maintains an aura of calm detachment. On January 20 local time, US Treasury Secretary Besant, interviewed by Fox Business in Davos, stated that China has fulfilled its commitments regarding purchasing US soybeans and supplying rare earths. China's rare earth supplies are progressing as expected, a result deemed "quite satisfactory." Regarding the recent rare earth export controls imposed on ally Japan, Besant adopted a spectator's stance: remarks by the Japanese Prime Minister triggered Sino-Japanese friction, but the US was unaffected. One wonders what Takachi's thoughts are on this? Currently in Europe, only Macron seems somewhat willing to speak truthfully. Unfortunately, France has lost its former glory. Gold, consistently highlighted, continues its meteoric rise. On January 20, driven by safe-haven demand, international gold prices again hit fresh record highs, with both London spot gold and COMEX gold futures breaking through $4,700 per ounce. Zhitong's January stock pick, Zijin Gold International (02259), rose over 4% again. Some institutions indicate that Hang Seng Indexes Company will announce the formal results of the Hang Seng series index adjustments after the market close on Friday, February 13, 2026. Zijin Gold International (02259) has hopes of being included, representing a potential catalyst. LUK FOOK GROUP (00590) celebrated the simultaneous opening of five stores in Vietnam, expanding its retail footprint in Southeast Asia, and gained over 5% today. Previously mentioned bottom-fishing candidate Chifeng Gold (06693) surged over 9%; other players like Shandong Gold (01787) also gapped up over 5%. Current enthusiasm for gold is exceptionally high, exemplified by topics like "Diamond ring bought 10 years ago has depreciated 99%, should have bought gold instead" trending online. An LBMA survey shows analysts generally expect gold prices to surpass $5,000 this year. This is a feast for existing holders, but chasing prices at these levels is inadvisable.
Xiangfeng Group (02473), mentioned yesterday, gained momentum again. The market values the radar chips and algorithms with full-stack in-house R&D capabilities of its acquisition, Kuangshi Technology, a nearly unique offering in the Hong Kong market. Xiangfeng Group possesses a nationwide self-operated sales and operations network, controlling massive amounts of real-road data and vehicle operation scenarios—a scarce resource. The combination of these assets could rapidly advance its autonomous driving initiatives, leading to another surge of over 15% today, though the stock is already at elevated levels in the short term. Similarly capitalizing on scarcity is China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055), highlighted in yesterday's stock picks: as the designated overseas platform of China Tobacco International responsible for overseas capital market operations and international business expansion, it carries the mission of China Tobacco's globalization strategy. It recently signed global exclusive distribution and agency agreements for cigars with Sichuan China Tobacco, Hubei China Tobacco, Shandong China Tobacco, and Anhui China Tobacco. The platform for global sales of Chinese-style cigars is preliminarily targeted for completion by January 2026, expected to further boost profits. The stock rose over 10% again today. The strength in Xiangfeng Group (02473) also lifted Yuejiang (02432): on December 29, 2025, the company decided to initiate an initial public offering of RMB ordinary shares and a listing plan on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. It has appointed pre-listing辅导 institutions and submitted the registration application for A-share pre-listing辅导. The stock gained over 9% today. The semiconductor sector is highly active. KeyBanc data indicates that due to "sweeping purchases" by hyperscale cloud providers, server CPU capacity from Intel and AMD for the entirety of 2026 is essentially sold out. Both companies plan to raise server CPU prices by 10-15%. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang was reported to visit China in late January to attend the company's annual meeting. Despite US approval for its H200, acceptance isn't guaranteed, prompting Huang to seek alternative strategies. At this critical juncture, capital must support domestic chips. Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) reported utilization rates at its three 8-inch wafer fabs remain consistently high, while the actual wafer starts at its first 12-inch wafer fab have exceeded the designed capacity of 100,000 pieces per month. Another 12-inch wafer fab, currently in the capacity ramp-up phase, is expected to complete overall capacity configuration in Q3 2026. The race is for time and capacity; the stock rose over 5% today. Chip design firms like Naxin Micro (02676) and GigaDevice (03896) both gained over 6%. On January 21, ASMPT (00522) announced it is initiating a strategic review of its Surface Mount Technology (SMT) Solutions division. Potential outcomes may include, but are not limited to, a sale, joint venture, spin-off, listing, or retention and support for the strategic development of the SMT Solutions division to ensure its long-term success and value creation. Subsequent actions warrant observation; the stock rose over 4% today. Due to tight supply and soaring prices of raw materials like fiberglass cloth, Japanese semiconductor materials manufacturer Resonac announced price increases effective March 1 for printed circuit board (PCB) materials such as Copper Clad Laminate (CCL) and bonding sheets, with hikes exceeding 30%. Zhitong's January stock pick, Kingboard Laminates (01888), with simultaneous exposure to copper foil, electronic glass fabric, and CCL, benefits directly from these price increases, catalyzing its performance and leading to another sharp rise of over 8% today. Kingboard Holdings (00148) also gained over 5%. Other strong performers included Skyworth Group (00751), whose privatization plan spurred a rise over 37%; TCL Electronics (01070) plans to establish a joint venture with Sony, a powerful alliance leading to a gain over 14% today. Real estate was mentioned yesterday. Consider the view of "Private Equity Enchantress" Li Bei: a real estate reversal is highly likely within two quarters, potentially a once-in-a-decade event. In this analyst's opinion, a full reversal seems exaggerated. The golden era for real estate has passed, and various红利 have vanished—what foundation is there for a reversal? A significant turnaround seems unlikely on any level, but gradual improvement is foreseeable. For those willing to be patient, speculative opportunities might arise. Industry insiders disclosed that a proposal to extend the maturity of a Vanke (02202) bond, "21 Vanke 02," with a remaining balance of 1.1 billion yuan, by one year was approved. This successful precedent bodes well for the extension proposals currently under negotiation for Vanke's other two bonds, "22 Vanke MTN004" and "22 Vanke MTN005." Vanke's stock rose over 6% today.
**【Sector Focus】** On January 21, preliminary statistics from Gaogong Industry Institute (GGII) showed that global shipments of residential energy storage systems in 2025 reached approximately 35GWh, a significant year-on-year increase of nearly 50%. Regionally, the market for residential storage installations shows high concentration, with Germany, the US, Australia, and Japan—the four major markets—accounting for 57% of global installations in 2025, reflecting the dominant role of mature markets in global demand. The rapid growth of overseas energy storage presents an opportunity due to strong product competitiveness. Key beneficiaries include: Ganfeng Lithium (01772), Tianqi Lithium (09696), CATL (03750), and CALB (03931).
**【Stock Picks】** **Sany Heavy Industry (06031): Advancing Digital-Intelligent Transformation, Accelerating Globalization Pace** For the first three quarters of 2025, operating revenue reached RMB 66.104 billion, up 13.27% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 7.136 billion, up 46.58% year-on-year; and net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items was RMB 7.106 billion, up 53.55% year-on-year. For Q3 alone, revenue was RMB 21.324 billion, up 10.48% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.919 billion, up 48.18% year-on-year; and net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring items was RMB 1.697 billion, up 12.97% year-on-year. **Analysis:** The improvement in profitability is primarily due to the company's active promotion of digital-intelligent transformation. The company maintains high-quality cash flow, with net operating cash flow for the first three quarters at RMB 14.547 billion, up 17.55% year-on-year, providing strong support for business expansion. On October 28, 2025, the company was officially listed on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, successfully establishing a dual A+H share listing platform. The listing raised approximately HKD 13.3 billion, with 45% allocated to improving the global sales network, 25% to product R&D, and 20% to enhancing overseas manufacturing capabilities, accelerating its globalization pace. Following the acquisition of Putzmeister in 2012, the company accelerated its global expansion. It now ranks among the top three global construction machinery manufacturers, exporting products to over 180 countries and regions, and has been the global number one brand in concrete machinery for 14 consecutive years. The compound annual growth rate of overseas revenue from 2022 to 2024 was as high as 15.2%. In the first half of 2025, overseas revenue hit a record high of RMB 26.5 billion, accounting for 59% of total revenue, leading the industry in both scale and proportion. Its global operational capabilities are industry-leading. Leveraging the H-share listing, the company plans to further expand sales channels in Europe, Asia, and Africa, and intends to establish production bases in emerging markets, promising the continued release of synergies between global capacity and channels. Looking ahead, supported by the dual A+H platform, the company will deepen the synergistic advancement of its three core strategies: globalization, digital-intelligent transformation, and low-carbon development. The company aims for a 0.5-1 percentage point gross margin expansion across all product lines by 2026, continuously optimizing profitability.
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