On January 8th, the three major A-share indices collectively declined, yet the commercial space concept bucked the trend and surged strongly, experiencing a widespread limit-up during the trading session. By the close, 353 stocks related to the commercial space concept finished higher, with 33 individual stocks, including Heshun Electric, hitting the daily limit-up. Subsequently, 14 listed companies successively released announcements regarding abnormal stock price fluctuations or risk warnings. On the 9th, the three major indices collectively closed higher, with 325 commercial space concept stocks finishing in positive territory and 22 individual stocks, such as Ganhao Optoelectronics, hitting the limit-up, signaling a return of the "limit-up wave."
The commercial space concept has recently been buoyed by multiple rounds of policy developments. In November 2025, the commercial space industry welcomed its first dedicated regulatory body—the Commercial Space Department. That same month, the China National Space Administration issued the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027)," integrating commercial space into the nation's overall space development strategy. In December, the Shanghai Stock Exchange released the "Guidance on the Application of Listing Review Rules No. 9—Application of the Fifth Set of Listing Standards for Science and Technology Innovation Board by Commercial Rocket Enterprises," which for the first time provided a clear pathway for commercial rocket companies aiming for the STAR Market, specifying indicators related to technical milestones, R&D capabilities, and commercialization prospects.
The commercial space concept has performed remarkably well recently, leading to a significant rise in valuations. The average P/E (TTM) for the concept increased from 36.69 in November to 45.30, with 16 individual stocks seeing their share prices double. Tianli Composite, the top gainer, soared by 265.41%. Simultaneously, ETF funds focused on satellites, aerospace, and aviation have also generated substantial returns. Since the start of 2026, 9 fund products have achieved year-to-date gains exceeding 10%, with the Fullgoal CSI Satellite Industry ETF leading at a 15.99% increase. Another 11 fund products have seen gains between 8% and 10%, with the Huabao China General Aviation Industry ETF, the lowest gainer in this group, rising by 8.48%.
Does the fervently speculated commercial space concept harbor underlying concerns? Multiple listed companies have exhibited caution regarding this round of speculation. Shortly after the "limit-up wave" on the 8th, 14 listed companies, including Tianli Composite, Pony Testing, and China First Heavy Industries, successively issued announcements concerning abnormal stock price movements or risk warnings, advising investors to invest rationally and be mindful of risks. Companies like China First Heavy Industries and Pony Testing proactively disclosed performance weaknesses in their announcements. Pony Testing noted in its announcement that from December 24, 2025, to January 8, 2026, its closing price had accumulated a deviation exceeding 100% over 10 consecutive trading days. It further reminded investors that the company reported a net loss of approximately 199 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025 and anticipates an annual loss between 200 million and 250 million yuan for 2025.
How vast is the market potential for commercial space? It was noted that the previously released "China Commercial Space Industry Development Report (2025)" indicated that as of November, the global average monthly launch rate for 2025 exceeded 26 times, marking an era of "weekly launches." The report projected the scale of China's commercial space industry to reach between 2.5 trillion and 2.8 trillion yuan this year, with an average annual compound growth rate of over 20%, and the number of commercial space enterprises exceeding 600. According to Yan Baofeng, a researcher at the Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China's commercial space sector is still in its infancy, with the number of launches by private/commercial rockets achieving a breakthrough from zero. While the domestic plan for the next few years involves launching 45,120 satellites, the scaled development of commercial space faces constraints such as insufficient launch capacity and high launch costs. The high costs are also impacted by the shortage of launch capacity. "Currently, the primary providers of satellite launch capability are still the 'national team,' which cannot meet the commercial space sector's demand for large capacity, low cost, high frequency, and timely launches," Yan explained. He added that the core demands of domestic commercial space customers are low cost, high reliability, high frequency, and on-time launches. The traditional "engineer mindset" of aerospace enterprises, which focuses on achieving technological breakthroughs, does not fully align with the needs of the commercial space market.
Stimulated by launch demand, sub-sectors like satellite manufacturing and rocket launches are experiencing positive momentum, with local governments frequently rolling out supportive policies. Recently, the "Guangzhou Plan for Accelerating the Construction of a Strong Advanced Manufacturing City (2024-2035)" proposed promoting the construction of the Nansha CAS Space liquid rocket assembly and testing base and facilitating the swift establishment of the Huangpu Galactic Energy rocket assembly base. It also advocated for the development of high-thrust, reusable liquid rockets to build low-cost, high-frequency launch capabilities. Yan noted that driven by demand, CAS Space's LIQUID ARROW-1 rocket efficiently accomplishes batch tasks like small satellite constellation deployment and scientific exploration by launching multiple small satellites for cluster deployment. Having set a domestic record with a "one rocket, 26 satellites" mission, LIQUID ARROW-1 had achieved 11 successful launches by December 2025, placing 84 satellites into space with a total payload mass of 11 tons. On the last day of 2025, LandSpace Technology Corporation Ltd.'s application for listing on the STAR Market was accepted, positioning it to challenge for the title of "first commercial rocket stock." The IPO aims to raise 7.5 billion yuan, with 2.77 billion yuan earmarked for a project to enhance reusable rocket production capacity. Industry insiders emphasize that rockets represent the current bottleneck in commercial space. They suggest that with the release of production capacity, increased launch capability, and breakthroughs in recovery technology, the pace of satellite constellation deployment is expected to experience leapfrog growth.
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