Goldman Sachs' latest 2027 economic outlook projects global GDP growth of 2.8% next year, with the US economy expanding 2.4% and the UK economy growing 1.4%.
Although artificial intelligence (AI) investment continues to provide support to the US economy, rising energy prices, persistently high financing costs, and tightening monetary policy remain the primary risks facing global economic growth.
The research notes that the key to global economic growth in 2027 lies in whether AI investment and productivity improvements can offset the negative effects of high interest rates and energy costs. The bank had previously projected that global economic growth in 2027 would be roughly flat compared with 2026, but that overall risks are skewed to the downside.
AI Investment Remains the Primary Driver of US Economic Growth
Research published by Goldman Sachs on November 11 projects that AI investment will continue to be the main driver of US corporate capital expenditure growth in 2027, pushing real business fixed investment up 8%, significantly higher than the market consensus estimate of 4.2%.
The bank estimates that the annualized scale of US AI-related hardware and intellectual property investment will exceed $900 billion by the end of 2026, and further rise to $1.4 trillion by the end of 2027, equivalent to nearly 4% of US GDP.
Under an estimation methodology that includes semiconductor investment, AI-related spending is expected to contribute 5.3 percentage points to the growth rate of US real capital expenditure in 2027 and drive GDP growth by approximately 0.6 percentage points.
However, because a large amount of information processing equipment relies on imports and semiconductor investment is not adequately reflected in official statistics, there is a discrepancy between the actual boost AI spending provides to economic growth and what official statistics show.
If semiconductor investment is excluded, Goldman Sachs estimates that AI investment's contribution to capital expenditure growth is 4.3 percentage points, while its contribution to GDP growth is only 0.2 percentage points.
High Interest Rates and Energy Costs Pose Major Risks
Although Goldman Sachs expects the US economy to continue growing next year, persistent inflationary pressures mean monetary policy may remain restrictive for a longer period.
Goldman Sachs raised its Federal Reserve interest rate forecast this week, expecting the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points in December this year and by another 25 basis points in March 2027.
At the same time, the bank pushed back the timing of the first rate cut from September 2027 to December 2027, and expects further rate cuts in 2028 thereafter.
Goldman Sachs believes that energy costs and corporate financing pressures could still weigh on economic activity. Its earlier research estimated that if developed economy bond yields continue to rise by 100 basis points, the combined impact on housing, durable goods spending, and business investment could drag down economic growth by approximately 0.6 percentage points.
Additionally, the stimulus effect of the AI investment boom also carries the risk of diminishing. If the growth rate of related capital expenditure slows, or if a technology stock correction weakens the household wealth effect, US economic growth could be further affected.
Overall, Goldman Sachs' forecast for the 2027 global economy still uses growth as its baseline scenario, but whether US AI investment can continue to expand, and when inflation and interest rates will decline, will be important variables affecting economic performance.
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