China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report noting that the auto market entered the traditional "Golden September" peak season in September, with the release of family car-buying demand during the school-opening season, the continuation of the trade-in policy, and a dense wave of new model launches driving a recovery in terminal demand. However, weighed down by the historic peak base of 2.241 million units created last year by pre-subsidy-rollback rush buying, the year-on-year decline remained significant, and overall demand release was relatively cautious.
Looking ahead to October, the "Silver October" peak season combined with year-end sales pushes, continuously enriched new vehicle supply, and exports expected to sustain high growth will jointly drive October sales upward on a month-on-month basis; in terms of structure, volatile rising oil prices are suppressing the recovery of fuel vehicles, and the new energy penetration rate is expected to hit new highs. October sales are expected to rebound temporarily and recover modestly compared with September overall, but demand release will be concentrated and short-lived, with greater downward pressure after the holiday. The main views of China Galaxy Securities Co., Ltd. are as follows:
The auto market entered the traditional "Golden September" peak season in September, with the release of family car-buying demand during the school-opening season, the continuation of the trade-in policy, and a dense wave of new model launches driving a recovery in terminal demand. However, weighed down by the historic peak base of 2.241 million units created last year by pre-subsidy-rollback rush buying, the year-on-year decline remained significant, and overall demand release was relatively cautious.
From September 1 to 27, national passenger vehicle retail sales reached 1.258 million units, down 29% year-on-year and up 1% from the same period last month; cumulative retail sales so far this year totaled 12.973 million units, down 22% year-on-year. From September 1 to 27, national passenger vehicle manufacturer wholesale volume reached 1.474 million units, down 30% year-on-year and down 12% from the same period last month. Among them, new energy passenger vehicle retail sales were 827,000 units, down 20% year-on-year and up 2% from the same period last month, with a retail penetration rate of 65.7%; national passenger vehicle manufacturer new energy wholesale volume was 1.032 million units, down 11% year-on-year and down 7% from the same period last month, with a wholesale penetration rate of 70%.
Recently, domestic brands have successively released their September sales results. Leapmotor held steady above the 100,000-unit level for the third consecutive month, Xiaomi and XPeng jointly climbed onto the 40,000-unit step, while HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility and Li Auto pulled back month-on-month. BYD sold 463,600 vehicles in September, up 16.99% year-on-year and up 5.28% month-on-month, continuing its month-by-month upward trend. Geely sold 292,200 vehicles in September, achieving double growth year-on-year and month-on-month. Among them, Zeekr sold 37,200 vehicles, up 103.85% year-on-year. Overseas sales reached 106,700 vehicles, up 162% year-on-year, exceeding 100,000 vehicles for four consecutive months. Changan Deepal sold 30,200 vehicles in September, up slightly month-on-month; Qiyuan sold 46,500 vehicles, with the newly launched Qiyuan Q06 surpassing 35,000 orders on its first day; Avatr delivered 8,183 vehicles. Great Wall sold 114,900 vehicles in September, down year-on-year and up slightly month-on-month; Leapmotor delivered 105,700 vehicles in September, up 58.51% year-on-year, exceeding 100,000 units monthly for three consecutive months and firmly holding the top spot in new force deliveries; Li Auto delivered 31,800 vehicles in September, down 6.29% year-on-year and down 15.56% month-on-month, with cumulative third-quarter deliveries of 100,000 vehicles, up 1.7% month-on-month; HarmonyOS Intelligent Mobility delivered 37,500 vehicles in September, down 29.15% year-on-year and down 10.95% month-on-month, with AITO under short-term pressure as it enters a transition period of cooperation model adjustment; XPeng delivered 41,300 vehicles in September, up 5% month-on-month, with GX delivering 7,224 units in September and MONA L03 production capacity continuing to ramp up, delivering over 10,000 units in September; Xiaomi delivered over 40,000 vehicles in September, with the newly launched extended-range model Xiaomi Pengcheng delivering over 10,000 units in its first month, becoming a core incremental driver; NIO delivered 37,400 vehicles in September, up 7.7% year-on-year and up 4.39% month-on-month. Among them, the NIO brand delivered 21,300 vehicles, up 55.3% year-on-year, the Onvo brand delivered 8,763 vehicles, down 42.5% year-on-year, and the Firefly brand delivered 7,327 vehicles, up 26.9% year-on-year.
Looking ahead to October, the "Silver October" peak season combined with year-end sales pushes, continuously enriched new vehicle supply, with the domestic 2026 Li Auto i6 and others leading launches, new vehicles from brands such as Li Auto, Leapmotor, XPeng, and smart appearing at the Paris Motor Show, and exports expected to sustain high growth will jointly drive October sales upward on a month-on-month basis; in terms of structure, volatile rising oil prices are suppressing the recovery of fuel vehicles, and the new energy penetration rate is expected to hit new highs. October sales are expected to rebound temporarily and recover modestly compared with September overall, but demand release will be concentrated and short-lived, with greater downward pressure after the holiday.
Biweekly Market Review
By sub-sector, passenger vehicles, sales and services, commercial vehicles, motorcycles and others, and auto parts posted biweekly changes of +0.80%, +0.07%, -0.91%, -3.55%, and -3.57%, respectively. In terms of valuation, sales and services, motorcycles and others, auto parts, passenger vehicles, and commercial vehicles had price-to-earnings ratios of 25.32x/24x/23.13x/21.99x/15.04x, respectively. Motorcycles and others, auto parts, commercial vehicles, passenger vehicles, and sales and services had price-to-book ratios of 3.13x/2.41x/1.92x/1.4x/1.27x, respectively.
Risk Warnings: 1. Risk that auto sales fall short of expectations; 2. Risk that policy effects fall short of expectations; 3. Risk of intensifying industry competition; 4. Risk that humanoid robot mass production falls short of expectations.
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