On February 23, newly released data indicated that the annualized growth rate of U.S. real GDP for the fourth quarter of 2025 slowed significantly to 1.4%, a figure substantially lower than the previous reading of 4.4% and also well below market expectations. This quarter's economic deceleration is primarily attributed to a sharp contraction in government spending resulting from a 43-day U.S. government shutdown, coupled with a slowdown in both exports and consumer spending. Although the investment component showed some acceleration, the overall growth momentum has clearly weakened.
In stark contrast to the slowing growth, inflationary pressures remain persistent. The core PCE price index for December rose 3.0% year-over-year, showing a slight rebound from the previous month and continuing to exceed the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% target. Concurrently, the annual rate of the PCE index also increased to 2.9%. This series of data reinforces market expectations that the Fed will maintain its restrictive policy stance, making the prospect of interest rate cuts in the near term increasingly dim. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dipped slightly to 56.6, with respondents commonly citing that "rising prices are eroding personal finances." However, a glimmer of positive news emerged from the report: the one-year inflation expectation dropped from 4.0% to 3.4%, while the five-year inflation expectation remained stable at 3.3%.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to inject safe-haven demand into gold. Reports indicate that the U.S. government is internally weighing options regarding Iran, including limited strikes or broader regime change, though diplomatic channels are currently being prioritized. On February 22, U.S. time, a senior U.S. official revealed that if Iran submits a detailed draft nuclear agreement within the next 48 hours, U.S. negotiators are prepared to hold a new round of talks with Iran in Geneva on the 27th. The official stated that the current diplomatic efforts might represent a final opportunity from the Trump administration before potentially launching a large-scale U.S.-Israel joint military operation. The Trump administration is awaiting Iran's proposal.
The daily chart shows that gold's technical posture has shifted to neutral-bullish, but a break above the $5,200 level is needed to propel prices further upward. From a daily structural perspective, the price has reclaimed ground above $5,050, maintaining an overall bullish alignment pattern. Short-term moving averages continue to trend higher, indicating the uptrend remains intact. Key resistance levels to watch are the $5,175 and $5,200 zones; a break above these could provide an opportunity to test near the previous highs. The 4-hour chart shows the price moving within a short-term ascending channel, with the MACD holding above the zero line and its histogram expanding. The RSI is above 60, suggesting bulls still hold the advantage. However, a drop below $5,050 could lead to a test of support around the key psychological $5,000 level. Overall, the technical picture leans bullish, but price action is primarily driven by news flow.
During the Asian trading session, the price touched and tested the $5,170 and $5,175 levels, with both attempts proving successful. Immediate short-term resistance is seen near the Asian session high of $5,176. For support, the Asian session pullback levels of $5,140 and $5,130 serve as initial references, followed by the rising SAR indicator support on the hourly chart near $5,115. A break below this would bring the day's low around $5,100-$5,105 into focus as the next support level.
Intraday Resistance: Near $5,175, $5,200. Intraday Support: Near $5,140, $5,115, $5,070.
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