The June 2026 China Bulk Commodity Price Index (CBPI), released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, stood at 130.3 points, marking a month-on-month decrease of 1.7% and a year-on-year increase of 17.6%.
An analysis of the index's performance indicates that while it has retreated due to factors including an easing of tensions in the Middle East, heightened expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, and the onset of traditional off-seasons for certain industries, domestic and international market demand has also shown signs of recovery. The overall bulk commodity market has demonstrated relative stability and resilience.
As prices for energy, chemical, and non-ferrous metals continue to decline, pressure on corporate raw material costs is further alleviated. Positive factors for a stable and improving economy are gradually accumulating, suggesting a potential continuation of a steady, positive trend in the latter half of the year.
However, the current global economic, geopolitical, and financial landscape remains fraught with uncertainties, and risks from external sources remain elevated. To maintain the stability of industrial and supply chains, it is essential to accelerate the shift between old and new growth drivers, focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, and further enhance capabilities for risk identification and mitigation.
Breakdown by Sector
The energy price index registered a slight increase to 105.3 points, up 0.8% month-on-month and 8.1% year-on-year.
The mineral price index saw a modest decline to 68.5 points, down 0.5% month-on-month and 7.0% year-on-year.
The agricultural product price index continued its downward trend to 95.5 points, falling 1.1% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year.
The non-ferrous metals price index, after an initial surge, retreated to 160.9 points, down 1.5% month-on-month but up 25.0% year-on-year.
The ferrous metals price index recorded a slight decrease to 82.2 points, down 1.6% month-on-month and up 7.3% year-on-year.
The chemical price index fell significantly to 122.8 points, down 4.8% month-on-month and up 17.8% year-on-year.
Breakdown by Commodity
Among the 50 key bulk commodities monitored by the Federation, prices increased for 11 (22%) and decreased for 39 (78%) compared to the previous month.
The top three gainers were coking coal, coke, and corrugated paper, with month-on-month increases of 20.3%, 11.2%, and 5.3%, respectively.
The top three decliners were lithium carbonate, styrene-butadiene rubber, and refined nickel, with month-on-month decreases of 12.1%, 11.3%, and 6.7%, respectively.
Comparison with Domestic and International Indices
The CBPI trend was largely consistent with the previous month's Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). The May PPI rose 0.5% month-on-month, with prices for means of production up 0.7% and prices for means of livelihood remaining flat. The May CPI fell 0.1% month-on-month, with food prices down 0.4% and non-food prices down 0.1%.
The CBPI trend aligned with the CRB and S&P GSCI indices, though its decline was notably smaller than those seen in international markets.
Tensions in the Middle East have eased following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, with navigation through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resuming. However, disagreements persist on issues such as nuclear matters, the situation in Lebanon, and strait management, indicating that uncertainty and risk levels remain high.
Global energy and chemical prices have mostly declined, while base metal prices have faced downward pressure and correction due to rising expectations for Fed rate hikes and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
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