CMS released a research report stating that since Q3 2026, demand for service consumption has continued to recover, summer leisure travel demand has been unleashed, and with the government's ongoing efforts to expand domestic demand and boost service consumption, the overall prosperity of the social services sector has remained resilient. With the recovery of outbound travel demand, improvement in hotel operations, and optimization of the competitive landscape in the catering and tea beverage industries, consumer sectors represented by OTA, hotels, catering, and tea beverages are expected to continue benefiting. In addition, CMS suggests paying attention to layout opportunities in high-growth tea beverage and low-valuation catering growth stocks.
Main viewpoints of CMS are as follows:
Since 2026, demand for service consumption has continued to recover, summer leisure travel demand has been unleashed, and with policy support continuously promoting domestic demand expansion and boosting service consumption, the overall prosperity of the social services sector has remained resilient.
In the catering industry, offline consumption is gradually recovering. National catering revenue achieved positive year-on-year growth in July and August, with leading catering enterprises continuously improving through brand momentum and supply chain advantages. In the tea beverage industry, competition is gradually shifting from subsidy-driven to scale and efficiency competition. Leading brands are accelerating store expansion, and attention should be paid to layout opportunities in high-growth brands.
In the OTA sector, domestic leisure travel demand continues to be unleashed, and the recovery trend of outbound travel continues. In the hotel sector, demand was under short-term pressure in July due to extreme weather. As summer and holiday travel demand improves, RevPAR is gradually stabilizing, and with leading enterprises continuing to advance cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, profitability is expected to further recover.
As service consumption policies continue to be implemented, CMS suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the OTA, hotel, and catering consumption chain, with key recommendations including Ctrip Group, Tongcheng Travel, Jinjiang Hotels, and BTG Hotels. In addition, CMS suggests paying attention to layout opportunities in high-growth tea beverage and low-valuation catering growth stocks: Luckin Coffee, Guming, Yum China, and Green Tea Group.
Catering: Moderate recovery in offline consumption, leading enterprises continue to improve operations
Since 2026, catering consumption demand has overall maintained a recovery trend. National catering revenue in July and August reached 456.7 billion yuan and 454.4 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 1.4% and 1.1%. As resident consumption scenarios gradually recover and service consumption policies continue to advance, industry demand is expected to continue improving. Leading catering enterprises, leveraging brand advantages, supply chain capabilities, and operational efficiency improvements, have outperformed the industry. CMS suggests paying attention to Green Tea Group and Haidilao.
Tea Beverages: Industry competition gradually returning to efficiency, leading brands continue to expand
Since 2026, competition in the tea beverage industry has gradually shifted from subsidy-driven to competition based on brand, supply chain, and operational efficiency. Leading brands, leveraging scale advantages, continue to advance store expansion and improve operational quality through product structure optimization. With the expansion of delivery channels, coffee, and breakfast categories, leading brands still possess strong growth potential. CMS suggests paying attention to Guming and Mixue Ice Cream & Tea.
OTA: Outbound travel demand continues to recover, broad growth space in international business
Since 2026, domestic leisure travel demand has continued to be unleashed, summer travel demand has remained resilient, and with hotel supply growth and continuous increase in online penetration, the OTA industry's operating performance has been stable and improving. In terms of outbound travel, with the recovery of international routes and the unleashing of residents' cross-border travel demand, destination recovery performance has shown some divergence. International business remains an important long-term growth driver for leading OTAs. CMS recommends Ctrip Group and Tongcheng Travel.
Hotels: RevPAR gradually stabilizing, cost reduction and efficiency enhancement driving profit recovery
In Q3 2026, hotel industry demand has overall remained resilient. Summer and holiday passenger flow growth has driven sequential improvement in industry RevPAR. Hotel supply continues to expand, and leading enterprises continue to enhance profitability through asset-light model development and cost optimization. As subsequent consumption vouchers, cultural tourism consumption policies, and other stimulus measures are gradually implemented, hotel industry operations are expected to further recover. CMS recommends Jinjiang Hotels and BTG Hotels.
Risk warnings: Macro consumption decline, store opening progress falling short of expectations, exchange rate risks, and intensified industry competition.
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