According to the Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Network, copper prices are forecast to increase today. This outlook is driven by a combination of factors including a weaker US dollar index and robust bargain-hunting activity. The global supply-demand dynamics for metals tied to AI computing power are shifting. Concurrent supply tightness at the mine level, critically low inventories, and returning capital flows are providing additional upward momentum for spot copper prices.
Copper Futures Market
The overnight session saw London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices stage a strong rebound from lower levels, buoyed by the dip in the US dollar and significant bargain-buying. The most recent closing price settled at $13,316 per tonne, marking a gain of $289 or 2.22%. Trading volume decreased by 12,128 lots to 23,630 lots, while open interest rose by 306 contracts to 247,931 contracts. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), copper followed the strong overseas lead, opening higher and maintaining firm trading. The most actively traded August 2026 contract closed at 102,260 yuan per tonne, up 910 yuan or 0.90%.
LME copper inventories, as of June 25, stood at 339,100 tonnes, a decrease of 2,825 tonnes or 0.83% from the previous session.
The SHFE's most active August 2026 copper contract opened higher in the early session today, with the latest opening price at 09:01 reported at 102,040 yuan per tonne, an increase of 690 yuan.
Macroeconomic Environment
On the macro front, market attention on June 25 refocused on US inflation and the path for interest rates. The May core PCE price index showed a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and a month-on-month rise of 0.3%. The final reading for Q1 real GDP was revised up to an annualized 2.1%. However, durable goods orders for May fell by 4.5% month-on-month, while initial jobless claims dropped to 215,000. Sticky core services inflation persists, with the core PCE holding at 3.4%, indicating inflationary pressures are not solely confined to external shocks. Strong earnings reports from Micron and Qualcomm have reignited momentum in the AI sector. A softer US dollar index is providing support for copper prices. However, market expectations for interest rates to remain elevated for longer remain unchanged, keeping overall pressure on industrial metals.
Domestic Developments
Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce reported that as of June 2026, the number of key foreign-invested projects has exceeded 500, with a total investment surpassing $300 billion. These projects are concentrated in sectors including chemical energy, mechanical and electrical equipment, electronics and information technology, automotive, and healthcare. Activity in the semiconductor silicon wafer sector shows strong interaction between industry and capital.
Industry Fundamentals
Supply tightness at the mine level remains the core issue. Norilsk Nickel forecasts a global copper concentrate market deficit of 751,000 tonnes for 2026. The annual benchmark treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) have dropped to $0 per tonne, compared to $21 in 2025. The spot TC index has plunged deeply into negative territory at -$120.5 per dry metric tonne. The implementation of joint production cuts by the China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) is becoming stricter. Data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) shows a global refined copper market deficit of 145,000 tonnes in April. Codelco has initiated a comprehensive portfolio review, which may involve asset sales and cooperative development. The resource estimate for the Selkirk project under NexMetals has been increased by nearly 70%, indicating resources containing approximately 1.1 billion pounds of copper equivalent, though this represents a longer-term supply increment. The US-Iran ceasefire has alleviated concerns over Middle Eastern sulfur shortages, but hydrometallurgical copper production remains constrained by acid supply. With the June 30 deadline for the US copper tariff investigation report approaching, COMEX copper inventories have surpassed 650,000 tonnes, reaching a record high. The contango structure has recently narrowed, making the import arbitrage window difficult to open, prompting domestic smelters to plan increased exports. On the demand side, the traditional low season combined with high temperatures has led to a contraction in construction-related copper use and production schedules for white goods. Operating rates for copper rod and wire/cable producers are below 60%. However, new quality consumption sectors, including power grids, new energy installations, new energy vehicles, energy storage, and AI data centers (involving PCBs and HVLP copper foil), are showing resilience. Refined copper rod producers are maintaining operating rates above 75%, indicating a stable consumption base. As the traditional peak demand season of September and October approaches, previously suppressed demand is expected to be released later. In the spot market, with the mid-year and month-end approaching, holders' willingness to sell remains persistent. Following the sharp price decline, downstream buyers' enthusiasm for fixing prices at lower levels has increased. Coupled with discounted offers, spot market transactions have shown signs of warming.
Overall Assessment
In summary, a softer US dollar and bargain-hunting have fueled a rebound in copper prices both domestically and internationally. Supply tightness at mines, evidenced by negative TCs, CSPT production cuts, and ICSG deficit data, combined with low inventory levels, is providing strong support at the bottom. However, the upside potential is capped by the Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations, seasonal demand weakness, and mid-year inventory clearing. The SHFE's main August 2026 copper contract continues to test support at the key 100,000 yuan per tonne level. The probability of a deep decline is low, but upward momentum is lacking. In the near term, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of 100,200 yuan to 103,000 yuan per tonne.
Today's expected trading range is between 100,200 yuan and 103,000 yuan per tonne.
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