The "Big Five" beverage chains - MIXUE GROUP, Guming, Auntea Jenny, NAYUKI, and CHABAIDAO - have recently released their annual reports. The 2025 results reveal a stark divergence in performance and stock prices among these companies. Guming led the pack with its net profit more than doubling, while NAYUKI remained in the red, accumulating over 20 billion yuan in losses since its IPO. MIXUE GROUP accelerated its expansion against the trend, whereas CHABAIDAO proactively hit the brakes on growth. Auntea Jenny faced severe challenges, with a high closure rate indicating one out of every three new stores shuts down.
This performance split has created significant hardships for franchisees. One beverage franchisee disclosed that while gross revenue appears substantial, the actual net take-home amount is only about 60% after costs. Many new franchisees find it increasingly difficult to turn a profit, often leading to store closures or transfers.
The performance gap is most evident between Guming's leading growth and NAYUKI's continued losses. The bubble tea industry witnessed an IPO boom in 2025, with brands like MIXUE GROUP, Guming, and Auntea Jenny entering capital markets. Five companies are now listed in Hong Kong. However, full-year financial data reveals an increasingly clear divergence in the sector's performance.
MIXUE GROUP achieved dual growth in revenue and profit through extreme affordability and an extensive store network. Its 2025 revenue reached 33.56 billion yuan, up 35.2% year-on-year, with net profit at 5.93 billion yuan, a 33.1% increase. Guming and Auntea Jenny also posted strong growth. Guming's revenue rose 46.9% to 12.91 billion yuan, while net profit surged 108.6% to 3.12 billion yuan. Auntea Jenny's revenue grew 36% to 4.47 billion yuan, with net profit up 52.4% to 500 million yuan.
In contrast, CHABAIDAO and NAYUKI faced performance pressures. CHABAIDAO's revenue increased 9.7% to 5.4 billion yuan, with net profit growing 71.2% to 820 million yuan, though revenue growth slowed significantly. NAYUKI remained unprofitable, with revenue declining 12% to 4.33 billion yuan and a net loss of 239 million yuan, despite a 74% improvement from 2024.
Overall, MIXUE GROUP, Guming, and Auntea Jenny maintained high revenue growth above 30%, demonstrating resilience. CHABAIDAO showed weakening growth momentum, while NAYUKI experienced a second consecutive year of revenue decline. The industry has shifted from broad-based expansion to a phase of structural divergence where stronger players thrive and weaker ones contract.
This performance split is directly reflected in market sentiment. As of March 31, 2026, listed bubble tea companies showed significant stock price divergence from their IPO prices. MIXUE GROUP's share price stood at HK$293, up 44.7% from its IPO price of HK$202.5, with a market cap of HK$111.228 billion. Guming's shares rose 174.7% to HK$27.3 from its HK$9.94 IPO price, valuing the company at approximately HK$64.924 billion.
Conversely, Auntea Jenny, CHABAIDAO, and NAYUKI traded below their IPO prices. Auntea Jenny's shares were at HK$74, down 34.6% from its HK$113.12 offer price, with a market cap of HK$7.785 billion. CHABAIDAO's stock fell 67.6% to HK$5.67 from HK$17.5, valuing it at HK$8.378 billion. NAYUKI's shares plummeted 95.8% to HK$0.83 from HK$19.8, leaving it with a market cap of just HK$1.415 billion, the worst performer among its peers.
Behind the IPO wave lies an industry mired in intense competition focused on scale. Expansion strategies prioritizing store openings have exposed growing problems as industry growth slows and consumer demand becomes more rational. Fierce price wars and rapid store network densification have diluted customer traffic and sales per store, leading to shrinking unit economics, reduced franchisee earnings, and rising closure rates.
For example, Auntea Jenny's prospectus showed average daily GMV per store fell 12.1% year-on-year in 2024, with same-store GMV down 10.6%. Annual revenue per store dropped by nearly 200,000 yuan as rapid expansion severely diluted franchisee traffic.
One franchisee explained that net retention rates are particularly low now. While daily gross revenue of 10,000 yuan previously yielded about 8,000 yuan net, it now brings in only around 6,000 yuan, primarily due to higher commission and subsidy costs associated with increased delivery orders. The franchisee noted that location selection is crucial, but even good sites face competition within six months, extending payback periods. With high fruit spoilage rates, plus rent and labor costs, many new single-store franchisees struggle to profit, often resulting in closures or transfers.
Facing these challenges, major brands have adopted divergent expansion strategies. MIXUE GROUP and Guming chose to accelerate growth against the trend. MIXUE GROUP added 13,000 net new stores in 2025 after opening 8,914 in 2024, bringing its global total near 60,000, leveraging its cost leadership and supply chain advantages. Guming shifted from caution to aggressive expansion, adding approximately 3,640 net new stores in 2025, nearly triple the 913 stores added in 2024, using post-IPO funding to restart rapid growth.
In 2025, Auntea Jenny opened 3,654 franchised stores but closed 1,383, for a net increase of about 2,273, similar to the previous year. However, its closure rate reached 12%, meaning one in three new stores closed. CHABAIDAO's expansion nearly stalled with only 226 net new stores. NAYUKI was the only brand to reduce its total store count, closing over 150 underperforming company-owned stores while adding just 13 franchised locations, bringing that total to 358.
The effects of this strategic adjustment are beginning to show in financial results. In 2025, Guming's average daily GMV per store recovered from 6,500 yuan to 7,800 yuan, with same-store GMV turning positive. NAYUKI's average daily sales per company-owned store improved from 7,300 yuan to 7,700 yuan, while average daily orders increased from 270.5 to 313.0, indicating enhanced operational quality.
Is overseas expansion the only path for growth? Guming's CFO mentioned last August that the company is likely to reach its 20,000-store target by 2027, but expansion must ensure existing stores remain healthy. In December, Auntea Jenny's founder stated that continuous optimization of the single-store model supports expansion, with investment thresholds controlled at 200,000-300,000 yuan, among the lowest for major brands, enabling stable payback in about 12-15 months and improving franchisee loyalty.
Regarding future competition, an analyst suggested the industry will compete on several fronts: product innovation to meet consumer tastes; supply chain optimization for cost efficiency; brand differentiation through unique positioning; and channel expansion into lower-tier markets. Brands need to optimize product mix and cost control, develop high-value-added products, improve production efficiency, and reduce material costs to boost margins. Diversifying revenue streams through delivery, merchandise sales, and brand collaborations is also key for sustained profit growth.
Recent developments in 2026 indicate common trends despite varying strategies. With domestic market competition intensifying, leading brands are looking overseas to untapped markets. Overseas expansion has become crucial for breaking growth bottlenecks and finding second growth curves. Compared to domestic saturation, markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia offer substantial beverage consumption potential.
MIXUE GROUP entered New York and Los Angeles in December 2025 and opened its first Brazilian store in 2026, now operating in 14 countries. Guming, Auntea Jenny, and NAYUKI are accelerating Southeast Asian expansion, leveraging supply chain advantages for low-cost overseas operations to capture new markets.
Simultaneously, to escape price wars and improve per-store profitability, leading brands are upgrading store formats and pursuing differentiation. Some focus on the premium segment, launching experience-oriented stores that combine beverages with social spaces to enhance brand distinction through immersive environments. MIXUE GROUP targets the mass market with IP-themed stores and entertainment projects, expanding into retail and tourism value chains to move beyond pure price competition.
These trends reflect the industry's collective shift from scale expansion to value creation. The era of land-grab expansion is over. Future competition will center on product innovation, supply chain efficiency, differentiated experiences, and global布局. Only brands that balance franchisee interests with consumer needs while proactively optimizing resources will withstand the industry's ongoing consolidation.
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