On Monday, July 6th, during the early Asian trading session, spot gold experienced a slight pullback, with prices currently hovering around $4,158 per ounce.
This week, market participants will focus their attention on the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, which are anticipated to trigger significant market movements.
Following four consecutive weeks of decline, gold managed to build bullish momentum last week and closed higher.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in July dropped from nearly 30% before the release of the US employment data to approximately 15%.
After enduring four straight weeks of adjustment pressure, the global gold market finally saw a long-awaited weekly gain.
This rebound was not coincidental but was directly ignited by US employment data that fell significantly short of expectations, prompting a market-wide reassessment of the Fed's rate hike trajectory.
From a daily chart perspective, the gold price is currently trading not far below the $4,200 level, facing combined resistance from the downtrend line formed between March and July and the SMA20 moving average.
Concurrently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recovering towards the 50 level, indicating the overall trend remains in a neutral consolidation phase.
On the 4-hour chart, the short-term moving averages are arranged in an orderly upward pattern; however, the $4,215-$4,220 range presents a notable resistance zone.
The RSI indicator has retreated to around 60, suggesting the short-term trend has shifted to consolidation with a slight bullish bias, rather than indicating strong, unidirectional momentum.
Overall, the recommended trading approach for gold tonight is to treat it as a wide-range consolidation market.
Intraday Gold Trading Strategy:
Short Position Strategy: Consider selling on rallies in the $4,177-$4,179 range, with a stop-loss set at $4,203, targeting around $4,125.
Long Position Strategy: Consider buying on dips in the $4,126-$4,124 range, with a stop-loss set at $4,100, targeting around $4,160.
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