A global investment boom in artificial intelligence is driving a significant increase in semiconductor demand. As a bellwether for global trade, South Korea's exports in February are projected to record a ninth consecutive month of year-on-year growth, continuing the strong momentum of the current export expansion cycle.
According to a media survey, the median forecast for South Korea's February export growth is 24.0% compared to the same period last year. Although this is lower than the 33.8% growth rate seen in January—which was the highest monthly rate since August 2021—it would still represent the second-fastest annual growth rate since the current cycle of consecutive increases began in June 2025. Preliminary data for the first 20 days of this month has already indicated this trend, with exports rising 23.5% during that period and semiconductor exports surging by 134.1%.
On Thursday, the Bank of Korea raised its economic growth forecast for the year from 1.8% to 2.0%, citing the booming chip exports as a primary driver. While keeping interest rates unchanged, the central bank signaled that monetary policy is expected to remain stable over the next six months.
Economists point out that chip price increases have exceeded expectations, and semiconductor inventories in South Korea remain low, providing support for sustained strong export performance. However, exports of automobiles and machinery have shown weak momentum, partly due to tariff impacts, acting as a drag on overall growth. Official trade data is scheduled for release on Sunday, March 1.
The AI investment wave is becoming the most significant growth engine for South Korean exports. Analysts note that the rise in chip prices has been stronger than previously anticipated, while semiconductor stockpiles in the country continue to be tight. These two factors are jointly supporting robust semiconductor export figures.
Stephen Lee, an analyst at Meritz Securities in Seoul, commented, "There is a high probability that semiconductor export growth will exceed 100% in the first half of the year."
By destination, exports to China during the first 20 days of the month increased by 30.8% year-on-year, the fastest growth among major trading partners. Exports to the United States grew by 21.9%, while those to the European Union rose by 11.4%.
Despite the continued rapid expansion, the projected 24.0% growth rate for February represents a noticeable slowdown from January. Reuters noted that the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday—falling in February this year versus January last year—often distorts data for both months. This February had only 19 working days, three fewer than the same period last year, directly affecting export volumes. The high base of comparison from January's 33.8% growth also exerted some downward pressure on the February year-on-year figure.
In contrast to the strong performance in semiconductors, export momentum in the automobile and machinery sectors has been notably weak. Stephen Lee indicated that these segments are being held back by tariff effects and have "almost no growth momentum."
On trade policy, South Korean policymakers stated last week that the country will proceed with the trade agreement reached with Washington in November last year, despite new uncertainties arising from a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that deemed former President Trump's emergency tariffs unlawful.
The Reuters survey also showed that imports in February are expected to grow by 13.0% year-on-year, up from 11.6% in January. If realized, this would be the largest monthly increase since September 2022. The median forecast for the trade surplus is $10 billion, a significant expansion from the $8.71 billion surplus recorded in the previous month.
While upgrading its growth outlook, the Bank of Korea maintained its benchmark interest rate and hinted that monetary policy would remain stable for the next six months, adopting a generally cautious and wait-and-see stance.
Comments