On October 13, Johnson & Johnson disclosed its Q3 2026 quarterly financial report. During the reporting period, Johnson & Johnson achieved quarterly revenue of $25.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 5.9%. Among this, CARVYKTI, a BMCA CAR-T drug co-developed with Legend Biotech (NASDAQ: LEGN), recorded Q3 single-quarter sales of $710 million, up 35.5% year-over-year. The drug's cumulative sales for the first three quarters of this year reached $1.964 billion, up 47.4% year-over-year.
However, these strong sales figures did not trigger a significant rebound in Legend Biotech (NASDAQ: LEGN)'s stock price. According to observations, since July 28 of this year, Legend Biotech's stock price has been oscillating sideways at low levels for nearly three months. Although it closed up 6.49% on October 14 following the disclosure of the CARVYKTI sales data, the final closing price of $19.04 merely returned to the starting point of July 28.
Rebound and Repair After Bottoming Out
In Johnson & Johnson's financial report, while CARVYKTI's U.S. sales remained flat quarter-over-quarter, looking at the entire BCMA CAR-T sector, BMS's competing product Abecma, after disclosing a 21% year-over-year decline in Q1 2026 quarterly sales to $81 million, ceased separately disclosing quarterly sales data starting from Q2 2026. Its pressured competitive performance indirectly reflects that CARVYKTI's leading advantage as the sector leader has further expanded.
Additionally, Johnson & Johnson stated in its financial report that as of the end of June this year, CARVYKTI has been launched in more than 20 countries and regions globally, bringing nearly 60% of its sales increment in Q3 this year. The drug's non-U.S. global sales proportion also increased from 24.4% in the same period last year to 33.5%. This directly indicates that the drug's sales geographic structure has undergone some optimization, with international commercialization providing greater growth contribution.
Returning to Legend Biotech's stock chart, after Johnson & Johnson disclosed its Q3 report, Legend Biotech's stock price exhibited a single-day high-volume long bullish candlestick on October 14. Meanwhile, the company's stock price on that day simultaneously broke above the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages, and a MACD and KDJ golden cross appeared. Particularly on the MACD indicator, previously during the nearly one-month period from September 18 to October 12, although Legend Biotech's stock price only slightly recovered from $17.61 to $17.80, the MACD's DIF indicator surged significantly from -1.08 to -0.39, signaling a notable weakening of short-term bearish momentum. The company's high-volume long bullish candlestick on October 14 served as technical confirmation of this bottom divergence. At this point, Legend Biotech's short-term strengthening on the daily level has become very clear.
In terms of volume performance, on October 14, Legend Biotech's single-day trading volume reached 3.5358 million shares, 1.61 times the company's average volume over the prior 20 trading days. The OBV indicator stood above its own 10-day moving average for the first time, marking the first resonance between short-term capital flows and technical factors since the September panic.
However, a single-day capital return driven by news stimulation is still insufficient to support a subsequent trend reversal in Legend Biotech's stock price. Returning to the chart, Legend Biotech's October 14 candlestick showed a clear upper shadow with a length corresponding to approximately 3.86% of the stock's amplitude. This means that when Legend Biotech surged to a high of $19.73 during intraday trading that day, selling pressure completed the turnover of over 3 million shares within roughly a 4% amplitude, with a considerable portion being high-level selling rather than one-sided position building. The upper shadow on that day accounted for 34.8% of Legend Biotech's full-day amplitude, indirectly indicating that there may be institutional-level concentrated selling pressure in the $20 resistance zone.
On the other hand, although it was mentioned earlier that the company's stock price showed clear daily-level strengthening on the 14th, from a multi-timeframe perspective, Legend Biotech's weekly MACD indicator remained below the zero axis, its weekly RSI was still in the oversold zone at 32, and the ADX momentum indicator was in the "no trend" zone at 17.6. This forms the current "short-term strong, medium-term weak" structure for the company's stock price, making it difficult to support a trend reversal logic at this stage.
Is the Market Waiting for a "Second Growth Curve" or "Competitor Launch"?
With competitor Abecma falling behind in sales, CARVYKTI's treatment line continuously advancing, and long-term efficacy continuing to accumulate, the global commercialization logic for this product has become quite clear. However, for Legend Biotech, the reason the market has assigned a low valuation is no longer CARVYKTI's production and sales situation. Instead, concerns have shifted to Legend Biotech's "royalty ratio, profit margin, and long-term exclusivity" for this therapy's sales. Then, on the basis of multiple structural discounts, a 2.91x PS valuation was assigned, not only significantly below the industry average of 9.09x PS but also 29% lower than its average PS valuation over the past three months.
In a recently updated research report, BOCOM International lowered its sales forecast for CARVYKTI: the 2026 sales estimate for the therapy was cut by 7% from the previous figure to $2.57 billion, while the peak sales forecast was reduced by 3% to $6 billion. The institution's rationale was that "as Carvykti's outpatient treatment scenarios increase (accounting for approximately 60% of overall treatment), the gross-to-net discount will expand significantly."
Regarding market exclusivity, Johnson & Johnson's own Tecvayli + Darzalex combination and Gilead's anito-cel posing potential erosion to CARVYKTI's market exclusivity are clearly also important reasons for the market's downward revision of expectations. According to understanding, Johnson & Johnson executives stated on a previous conference call that Johnson & Johnson's own dual-antibody combination Tecvayli + Darzalex has "potential for cure" in second-line multiple myeloma. The market interpreted this as meaning that within Johnson & Johnson's second-line multiple myeloma market landscape, the Tecvayli + Darzalex combination and Carvykti hold the same position, which significantly weakened market expectations for Carvykti's exclusive status.
As for another BCMA-targeting CAR-T product, Gilead's anito-cel, its marketing application for fourth-line relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma has already been accepted by the FDA, with a PDUFA review deadline of December 23 of this year. If this product is successfully approved, the global BCMA CAR-T sector will officially form a three-way competitive landscape of CARVYKTI, Abecma, and anito-cel. Previously, institutions predicted anito-cel's fourth-line MM peak sales at approximately $1.6 billion, and if expanded to second-line treatment, peak sales could reach $3.8 billion.
When CARVYKTI's sales expectations cannot satisfy the market's valuation demands for Legend Biotech, a "new story" becomes a "necessity." This new story may be the in vivo CAR-T that previously drove a significant rebound in the company's stock price. On April 20 of this year, Eli Lilly announced the acquisition of Kelonia for a total consideration of up to $7 billion, acquiring the company's core technology—iGPS, an in vivo CAR-T platform based on a modified lentiviral vector. Stimulated by the positive news, Legend Biotech's stock price surged 18.42% that day. On June 2, when Legend Biotech announced it would present preliminary clinical data for its investigational in vivo CD19/CD20 dual-targeting CAR-T cell therapy LB2501 for the first time in a late-breaking oral presentation at the EHA annual meeting, the company's stock price soared 42.22% in a single day.
In fact, this was only an early clinical data disclosure for LB2501, but it broke the market's stereotype that Legend Biotech could only rely on the single blockbuster Carvykti to support its valuation, thereby triggering a market reassessment of its subsequent value. At a time when market pricing is extremely pessimistic, if more data on new pipelines can be disclosed subsequently, it may open a favorable valuation repair window for Legend Biotech.
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