According to a research report from GF Securities, the film market in 2026 is expected to continue its characteristic trend of divergence, with market performance persistently revolving around hit films and their release schedules, involving speculation on the variance between expectations and reality for individual movies. The report recommends focusing on companies with a robust pipeline of premium content and strong cash flow, suggesting strategic investments in leading firms with diverse film projects and high earnings flexibility during the low points ahead of the Spring Festival season. Companies like Maoyan Entertainment (01896) and Damai ENT (01060) are highlighted for attention. The core viewpoints of GF Securities are outlined as follows.
Volatility and divergence have been the dominant themes in the film market over the past three years, with 2025 serving as a stage for their concentrated manifestation. Data from Top indicates that the national cumulative box office (including service fees) for 2025 reached 51.829 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.98% and ranking as the fifth highest in film history; however, it decreased by 5.61% compared to 2023 and fell by 19.17% compared to the pre-pandemic level of 2019. Nationwide cumulative cinema attendance was 1.238 billion人次, up 22.65% year-on-year, yet down 4.66% from 2023 and a significant 28.35% lower than 2019. Crucially, box office revenue became highly concentrated among a few absolute top-performing films; "Nezha 2" alone contributed 15.446 billion yuan in box office revenue and 324 million admissions, accounting for approximately 30% and 26% of the respective totals, whereas the annual top-grossing film's revenue typically ranged between 4-5 billion yuan in previous years. Excluding the exceptional boost from the "Nezha 2" phenomenon, the 2025 box office was essentially flat compared to 2024.
The film market in 2025 confronted a dual challenge: on one hand, the accelerated obsolescence of traditional strategies intensified scheduling competition, ultimately leading to extreme disparities between hot and cold periods in the first half of the year and ineffective release windows in the latter half. The long-tail of box office revenue significantly contracted, particularly during non-peak seasons, while the promotional window for most films generally shortened. Furthermore, the simple aggregation of elements like IP, directors, and stars no longer guaranteed high box office returns; an increasing number of films underperformed relative to expectations, amplifying investment risks and causing a cooling effect on new project approvals.
On the other hand, a new market order is still being explored: post-pandemic, average ticket prices have generally remained above 40 yuan, the base of frequent moviegoers has shrunk, and efforts to cultivate viewing habits among younger audiences have not been notably successful. Conservative viewing decisions driven by a "pursuit of certainty," coupled with the "echo chamber" effect in public opinion, have resulted in box office revenue being intensely concentrated among a handful of top films. In this highly fragmented environment, the persuasiveness of diversified content supply and segmented release strategies has diminished. The misalignment between supply and demand has shaped the polarized characteristics of the 2025 market.
This ongoing paradigm shift may increasingly focus on the quality of individual films themselves, rather than on specific genres. Using the rise of mainstream-themed films around 2017 as a reference point—which emerged as a reaction against "low-quality" commercial productions—the success of animated films in 2025 can be seen as a similar pushback against live-action films that haphazardly incorporate trendy elements. As an outcome of audience "voting," animated films demonstrated a more efficient translation of word-of-mouth centered on individual titles rather than genres. Similarly, observations from 2025 indicate that high-quality traditional genre films can also resonate with audiences through their inherent merit and well-crafted, complete narratives. The concept of "genre" is essentially a historical summary; given that films are products with development cycles spanning several years, they are inherently future-facing, created for real-world viewers rather than abstract conceptual constructs. Moving beyond the constraints of genre classifications would allow the market to return to a healthier focus on content itself.
Risk warnings include potential regulatory changes within the industry, weakened consumer spending on cinema visits, uncertainties associated with film projects, and risks related to the application of AIGC technologies.
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