The wholesale price of a 53-degree Feitian Moutai bottle has quietly approached Kweichow Moutai's (600519.SH) suggested retail price, marking a 40% drop from its peak two years ago. Concurrently, the company's stock is testing support at the 1,400 yuan level.
Recent data shows the wholesale reference price for 53-degree Feitian Moutai has fallen to 1,500 yuan per bottle, hitting a yearly low—down 20% year-on-year and nearly 40% from two years ago. The capital market has reacted similarly, with Kweichow Moutai's shares sliding below 1,400 yuan intraday on December 10 before rebounding slightly to close at 1,402.8 yuan. Year-to-date, the stock has declined 6.15%, underperforming major indices like the CSI 300.
Investors are closely watching whether the stock has bottomed, as liquor prices often signal market floors. The prolonged slump reflects broader concerns over traditional consumer stocks and the baijiu industry’s structural adjustments. Kweichow Moutai is implementing its "Three Transformations" and "Three-End Reforms" strategies, but market validation remains pending.
**Feitian Moutai Hits "Psychological Support"** This year, Feitian Moutai’s price has breached multiple thresholds, sliding below 2,000 yuan in June and 1,700 yuan by late October, with some e-commerce promotions offering bottles as low as 1,399 yuan—matching its 2018 suggested retail price. Meanwhile, the stock has dropped 3.29% in December alone.
Shanghai-based liquor dealers note weak demand, with buyers waiting for further declines. One veteran wholesaler remarked, "1,500 yuan may be a near-term floor, but a rebound seems unlikely soon."
Amid softening demand, Kweichow Moutai has prioritized long-term market health over short-term sales pressure, allowing prices to reflect true consumption trends.
**Challenges and Strategic Shifts** At a recent shareholders' meeting, management acknowledged persistent industry headwinds, including intensified competition and slower-than-expected growth in corporate client sales. Supply constraints also loom, with base liquor production stagnating (-0.1% CAGR from 2021–2024), limiting output growth over the next five years.
The company is also navigating brand rejuvenation and globalization without diluting its premium image, aiming to transition from "selling liquor" to "selling lifestyles."
**Valuation Concerns** Despite steady earnings, Kweichow Moutai’s growth has slowed markedly. Q3 2025 revenue inched up just 0.35% YoY, with net profit rising 0.48%. Operating cash flow fell 14.01% to 38.2 billion yuan, signaling potential collection pressures.
Inventory levels drew scrutiny, surging 15.83% YoY to 55.86 billion yuan by Q3—a metric markets will monitor amid weakening demand.
Analysts suggest the price slump signifies a sector-wide reset: "Scarcity premiums are fading, and investment appeal is giving way to consumption fundamentals." A私募 fund manager noted, "Moutai’s reversion to a consumer good is inevitable as demographics and policies shift."
The dual decline in Kweichow Moutai’s stock and liquor prices mirrors broader struggles among "old guard" blue chips—once-dominant sectors now grappling with growth constraints amid economic transitions. The baijiu industry’s future hinges on uncertain demand dynamics, leaving Moutai’s valuation in flux.
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