PX: Supply and demand present a stable supply with weakening demand. China's industry operating rate rose 0.3 percentage points month-on-month to 80.3%, at a neutral level compared with the five-year average for the same period, while Asia's PX industry operating rate increased 0.8 percentage points month-on-month to 68.1%. After this round of maintenance ends, most companies will have completed their planned maintenance for the year, and October supply is expected to increase. However, since most units have gradually restarted and expected restarts are basically complete, future incremental supply will be relatively limited. On the demand side, judging from maintenance plans, PTA operating rates are expected to remain stable, with limited room for further increases. In October, PX is expected to show a balanced supply-demand state. On the crude oil front, China and the United States, the two major powers, reached a consensus that "no tolls shall be imposed on international waterways." From the perspective of international politics and morality, this indeed set a clear red line for blockade actions, greatly compressing Iran's space to weaponize the strait. However, a gap still exists between reaching consensus and implementing it, and the root of this gap lies in the fact that both the U.S. and Iran are in a typical face-saving game, behind which are huge differences in their core interests. The possibility of reaching a breakthrough agreement in the short term remains very low, and negotiations are more likely to be a long and difficult process of maneuvering. What currently has a greater impact on oil prices is the actual navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz, especially whether open and stable navigation can be restored. At present, under the pattern of "dark navigation maintaining supply and high costs supporting premiums," there is limited downside room for oil prices, and the short-term price center is supported. Overall, low inventories combined with persistently strengthening costs are the core reasons for the strong performance of the energy and chemicals sector. In the short term, oil price support still exists, and the PX November main contract is expected to trade in a volatile manner following oil prices, with a pressure zone at 9600-9700. For PX 11-1, buy the nearby and sell the distant on dips. As holidays approach, pay attention to controlling position risks and participate in trading cautiously. (Li Sijin, Futures Trading Consultation Practitioner Information: Z0021407, for reference only)
PTA: Supply and demand present declining supply with stable demand. In this period, Sanfame and Zhongtai restarted and increased operating rates, while Yisheng reduced its rate. However, affected by unexpected short-term shutdowns at Dushan Energy and INEOS, the PTA industry operating rate fell 2.0 percentage points month-on-month to 70.2%, at a low level compared with the five-year average for the same period. Due to persistently low inventories, the approaching holiday, some polyester factories' willingness to stock up, and warehouse receipts beginning to flow in, spot basis performed strongly. On the demand side, high prices limited the volume and pace of terminal seasonal orders, new gray fabric orders fell short of expectations, and the overall operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang declined. Downstream enterprises showed a clear intention to suspend production or take holidays during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, and the polyester industry operating rate fell 0.3 percentage points month-on-month to 73.9%. PTA is expected to likely end its inventory destocking in September and shift to inventory accumulation. Overall, low upstream raw material inventories and tight spot supply support near-term prices, and the market as a whole shows a pattern of nearby strength and distant weakness. In the short term, oil price support still exists, and the PTA January main contract is expected to trade in a volatile manner following oil prices, with a pressure zone at 6400-6500. For TA11-1, conduct rolling buy-near-sell-far strategies on dips. (Li Sijin, Futures Trading Consultation Practitioner Information: Z0021407, for reference only)
EG: Supply and demand present rising supply with stable demand. Domestically, the ethylene glycol industry operating rate rose 1.8 percentage points month-on-month to 78.7%, among which the coal-to-glycol operating rate rose 8.3 percentage points month-on-month to 84.9%. Some units began switching back from EO, with the current monthly switchback volume at less than 20,000 tons. After cargoes are gradually unloaded in the first half of October, spot liquidity may be moderately replenished. Saudi cargo arrivals during the month are expected to increase noticeably, and imports are expected to rebound to more than 260,000 tons. In October, ethylene glycol inventories will shift from destocking to restocking. Overall, stimulated by high profits, domestic ethylene glycol operating rates have risen. At the same time, negative feedback from downstream demand has emerged, with bottle chip and staple fiber producers cutting production and selling ethylene glycol spot cargoes. The tight spot supply situation for ethylene glycol in September has eased somewhat compared with August, but it is still difficult for conditions to become notably loose. At present, the cost side of ethylene glycol still has support, but support from the supply-demand side is weakening at the margin. As the EG10 contract enters its delivery month, delivery logic will dominate its price; EG10 virtual short positions face relatively large closing pressure, but with warehouse receipts continuing to increase recently and bearish fundamental drivers already appearing, under a mix of long and short factors, EG10 is expected to trade in a volatile manner. In October, ethylene glycol is expected to shift to restocking. The EG11 contract's own supply-demand drivers are weak, but oil price support still exists, and it is expected to mainly follow oil prices, with a pressure zone at 5600-5700. (Li Sijin, Futures Trading Consultation Practitioner Information: Z0021407, for reference only)
PF: Supply and demand present declining supply with stable demand. The operating rate of direct-spun polyester staple fiber for spinning fell 0.6 percentage points month-on-month to 68.0%. Some factories may further cut production later, and as supply continues to contract, the operating rate still has a downward trend, but room for further declines in staple fiber processing spread is limited. On the demand side, as the market enters holiday mode, transactions will further weaken. During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, downstream players mostly have holiday or production-reduction plans, and the polyester yarn factory operating rate fell 0.3 percentage points month-on-month to 47.3%. Overall, staple fiber production cuts are increasing, and supply-demand conditions will improve month-on-month. Short-term oil price support still exists, and the PF November contract is expected to trade in a volatile manner, with a pressure zone at 8400-8500. (Li Sijin, Futures Trading Consultation Practitioner Information: Z0021407, for reference only)
PR: Supply and demand present stable supply with weakening demand. On the supply side, the bottle chip industry operating rate fell 0.2 percentage points month-on-month to 57.3%, at a five-year low. September output is expected to hit a new low for the year, and the intensity of unplanned production cuts may further increase, but actual supply contraction can only slow the pace of further compression in spot processing spread. On the demand side, domestic peak-season order procurement has ended, and industries such as beverages are gradually entering the traditional off-season, weakening demand support, with downstream mainly making cautious replenishment based on rigid demand. Overall, with proactive production cuts on the supply side, bottle chip fundamentals are expected to improve at the margin. Short-term oil price support still exists, and the PR November main contract is expected to trade in a volatile manner, with a pressure zone at 8300-8400. Sina partner platform China Securities Co., Ltd. futures account opening is safe and secure.
Comments