Given the rare ceasefire in the Middle East, global stock markets have rebounded, with the Hong Kong market surpassing 26,000 points last week. US-Iran negotiations are entering a critical phase, as the two-week ceasefire agreement is set to expire late on April 21. Former President Trump warned that failure to reach a deal by April 22 could reignite hostilities. An Iranian military spokesperson stated that Iran has resumed control over the Strait of Hormuz due to the US "breaking its promises." Pre-negotiation maneuvers are expected; the key question is whether an agreement can be reached. On April 21, the US Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on Kevin Warsh's nomination for Federal Reserve Chair. If confirmed, markets may speculate on his dovish stance and potential interest rate cuts. Overall, the outcome of US-Iran talks will be revealed this week. If negotiations fail, conflict is likely to resume, potentially entering a more intense second phase. Another extension of the ceasefire appears unlikely, as it would serve little purpose. Capital allocation will adjust based on developments. Notably, if the worst-case scenario of renewed conflict occurs, major policy meetings might be convened earlier. Operationally, if fighting resumes, oil and gas sectors may rally; otherwise, markets are expected to continue favoring the tech sector, which faces less resistance. Several catalysts support this view: Semiconductor manufacturers are issuing another round of price hikes—United Microelectronics Corporation plans increases of up to 15% in the second half of the year. State media continues to promote computing power and digital tokens over the weekend, advancing the digital China initiative and fostering new engines for high-quality development. The Google Cloud Annual Conference, scheduled for April 22-24, may showcase a new generation of TPU architecture and optical circuit switch technology. Themes around chips, computing power, optical modules, and price increases (such as for fiber optics) are expected to persist. Additionally, DeepSeek is planning its first external funding round since inception, aiming to raise at least $300 million at a valuation exceeding $10 billion. Reports indicate strong investor interest, suggesting significant momentum that could stimulate AI model-related stocks. The National Space Administration announced that it will release major updates on deep space exploration and commercial aerospace during China's Space Day on April 24. Breakthrough news could catalyze the aerospace sector.
Comments