The highly anticipated debut of SpaceX (SPCX.US) on the Nasdaq took place on June 12. The stock had a strong first day, surging over 30% at one point before closing at $160.95, a gain of 19.22%. This solidified its market capitalization firmly above the $2.1 trillion mark, making it the eighth-largest listed company in the U.S. stock market. With this successful listing, Elon Musk officially became the world's first "trillionaire," with a net worth approximately 3.6 times that of Larry Page, the second-richest person on the global list. This capital market event also significantly benefited SpaceX's employees. Market reports indicate the IPO created roughly 4,400 new millionaires among staff, with nearly 400 holding stock valued at over $100 million.
From an industry development perspective, SpaceX's public listing is undoubtedly a landmark event in the history of global commercial aerospace. However, what truly captured the attention of global capital markets was its valuation benchmark. With a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 109 times, the notion that "SpaceX's listing will redefine aerospace company valuations" has moved from a talking point to a concrete pricing question that must be addressed: Is the market paying for cash flow, for platform optionality, or for the narrative itself?
Navigating Market Sentiment and Scarcity
When a major industry milestone coincides with a company sporting a triple-digit PS ratio, the market often produces two extreme reactions: either mythologizing the story or dismissing it as a bubble. For investors, a more valuable exercise is to cut through the noise, clarify the industry transmission pathways stemming from SpaceX's listing, and filter out verifiable opportunities from the surrounding hype.
SpaceX's three main business segments are launch services, Starlink, and AI operations. In 2025, the launch services segment reported revenue of $4.086 billion with an operating loss of $657 million. Starlink generated revenue of $11.387 billion, a 50% year-over-year increase, with an operating profit of $4.4 billion, making it the company's sole profitable segment and primary cash generator. The AI segment reported revenue of $3.2 billion but an operating loss of $6.355 billion, representing the main area of intentional, high-burn investment that weighs on overall profitability. Combined, the three segments generated $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue. Based on the closing market cap of $2.1 trillion on June 12, this translates to a PS ratio of 109, higher than any company in the S&P 500.
According to reports citing informed sources, sell-side research analysts from lead underwriter Morgan Stanley shared an internal model with select top-tier institutional investors during the IPO roadshow. This model projected SpaceX's potential revenue could reach $3.4 trillion by 2040, with adjusted EBITDA potentially hitting $2.7 trillion. Even with projections stretching to 2040, capital was still willing to back SpaceX, with the institutional book-building process showing oversubscription of approximately 3.5 to 4 times just before the IPO pricing. This enthusiasm is inseparable from SpaceX's "grand narrative."
The core of SpaceX's valuation lies not in simply adding together the "launch vehicle provider" and "low-earth orbit (LEO) operator" businesses, but in the progressive coupling of three layers of capability that form a unique infrastructure platform. Reusable launch services solve the access problem—driving orbital costs down the industrial learning curve is akin to building a dedicated elevator to space. Starlink converts the capacity of this elevator into a pre-emptive neural network of orbital slots and spectrum, while also generating measurable cash flow. The AI narrative (xAI/orbital computing) points to the furthest layer—spilling computing and energy demands into near-earth orbit, upgrading the entire system from "transport + communications" to a "space-side infrastructure platform."
Combined, what SpaceX is ultimately selling to the capital markets is not a rocket or a satellite constellation, but a blueprint for control of a "LEO Industrialization Operating System." The 109x PS ratio is essentially paying for the long-term economic rent and the uncertain, super-sized optionality embedded in this blueprint.
Monitoring the Lock-up Release Schedule
It is noteworthy that this IPO involved the release of only about 3.6% of SpaceX's total shares outstanding. Even if the overallotment option (greenshoe) is fully exercised, the free float would only reach 4.1%, an exceptionally small proportion for a global mega-IPO. This significant scarcity of freely tradable shares was a key factor supporting the stock's powerful debut. Precisely because the initial float is so small, the timing of when this scarcity begins to ease becomes more critical than in a typical IPO.
SpaceX's lock-up agreements feature a staged early-release framework. The pre-IPO Class A pool (shares held by early institutions and employees with vested options), subject to the standard 180-day lock-up, has its first release gate scheduled for the second trading day after the Q2 2026 earnings report, allowing up to 20% to be sold (with an additional 10% possible if the stock trades more than 30% above the IPO price). Subsequent releases of approximately 7% each are scheduled for days 70, 90, 105, and 120, followed by a 28% release after the Q3 earnings report, with the remainder clearing at the 180-day mark. At that point, the free float is expected to represent about one-third of the total shares outstanding.
Identifying Concrete Supply Chain Opportunities
In reality, bearish views on SpaceX are not uncommon in the market. Figures like Steve Eisman (protagonist of "The Big Short"), legendary short-seller Jim Chanos, and valuation expert Aswath Damodaran have all expressed that SpaceX's valuation is overextended. Morningstar, known for its sober analysis, issued a "Sell" rating with a $63 price target, arguing the market is paying an excessive premium for Musk's ambitions with no margin of safety.
In the short term, even with an extreme PS ratio of 109x, the combination of Musk's personal aura, the grand narrative of a space-side infrastructure platform, and extreme float scarcity can easily hand pricing power back to sentiment and supply/demand dynamics. The stock price could continue to rise driven by fervor. If this leads to a trend spillover, it could potentially drive a temporary rally in its supply chain, particularly among verified suppliers.
In such a scenario, confirmed suppliers like Shenzhen Sunway Communication Co.,Ltd. (300136.SZ), Tongyu Communication Inc. (002792.SZ), Western Metal Materials Co.,Ltd. (002149.SZ), and Parker Advanced Materials (605123.SH) deserve investor attention. Among these, Sunway Communication is a key verified supplier for satellite ground terminals, having supplied components like high-frequency connectors since 2022. Its Mexican factory reportedly dedicates most capacity to this "North American major client/satellite terminal," described as a critical Chinese supplier in the Starlink ground segment bill of materials (BOM).
Western Metal Materials' subsidiary supplies aerospace-grade niobium-tungsten alloy (C103), a core liner material for Raptor engine combustion chambers and nozzle walls that withstands temperatures over 2200°C. It is one of only three global producers capable of stable mass production. SpaceX is the sole commercial aerospace company consuming C103 at scale, and the demand level aligns with Western Metal's capacity, underscoring its scarcity value.
Parker Advanced Materials' products include structural forgings for rocket bodies and superalloy forgings for engines, holding NASA certification. Analysts note it is "the only private domestic enterprise to enter SpaceX's primary forging supply chain," with batch deliveries starting Q4 2025 and orders locked through 2027. Tongyu Communication's self-developed MacroWiFi product has reportedly passed SpaceX interface certification for satellite-to-internet direct connection functionality, with its ecosystem supporting products completing certification testing and receiving small-batch orders. Its role is more of a scenario-specific supporting equipment supplier within the Starlink ecosystem rather than a core BOM component provider; its potential lies in volume growth, not irreplaceability.
It's important to note that a company like Zaisheng Technology, despite market热度, does not constitute a strict, core SpaceX supplier based on revenue contribution or order continuity, and is better categorized as a peripheral materials stock under a conceptual mapping.
Focusing on Long-Term Fundamentals and Domestic Catalysts
Over the medium to long term, if SpaceX's valuation shifts from being driven by sentiment premium to being anchored by cash flow and execution progress, supply chain valuations would likely face compression as well. However, the ultimate driver of supplier stock performance will still be shipment volumes/market share and profit margins. As SpaceX deploys its raised capital and progresses with Starship cost reduction and Starlink capacity expansion, firm upstream orders will re-emerge as the primary driver. Therefore, for core companies already verified in the supply chain, investors should focus on布局 opportunities during volatility rather than short-term sentiment trading.
Looking beyond SpaceX's own valuation dynamics, the long-term trend of global commercial aerospace remains intact. Conversely, SpaceX's accelerated expansion fueled by capital markets will make the scarcity of "LEO orbital/spectrum resources" a tangible constraint, pressuring nations worldwide to accelerate constellation plans from strategic talk to hard investment. Domestically in China, facing pressure from international "first-come, first-served" rules, the urgency for national LEO constellations like China SatNet and G60 only increases. Coupled with top-down policy support and the logic of equipment mass production, the industrial主线 for China's commercial aerospace becomes clearer.
Selecting Stocks in the Domestic Supply Chain
This clarity translates into a straightforward framework for stock selection within the domestic supply chain. On the foundation of "volume growth certainty," prioritize segments with high per-unit/per-launch consumption, high barriers to entry (certification/process/flight heritage), and strong downstream elasticity. For the domestic chain, this focuses on four core categories: satellite-borne core components, aerospace-critical materials, engine key components/processes, and satellite manufacturing/platforms.
The engine components链 offers high弹性 but resembles a beta play on "which domestic rocket manufacturer first achieves mass production rhythm." Satellite/platform manufacturing has the highest单体 value but is also more constrained by systematic pricing and settlement cycles, with profit realization often lagging revenue growth. Therefore, from the perspective of "high growth ceiling and stronger certainty of realization," satellite-borne core components and aerospace-critical materials represent the most reliable spearhead: the former scales linearly with satellite numbers and has极强的 certification stickiness; the latter benefits from long-cycle barriers in配方-process-batch consistency, making them hard to replace once qualified.
Within satellite-borne core components, high-certainty stocks include Chengchang Technology (001270.SZ) for its satellite-borne T/R RF chips (core to mmWave phased arrays), making it one of the purest plays on satellite volume growth. Aerospace Electric Appliance (002025.SZ) supplies aerospace-grade connectors/specialized interconnects with high黏性 within domestic systems, seeing用量 rise with launches and network deployment. Tianyin Electromechanical's (300342.SZ) subsidiary has achieved批量 supply of star trackers, being one of the few domestic companies capable of mass production and delivery.
Within aerospace-critical materials, high-certainty stocks include Baoti Co., Ltd. (600456.SH) for its aerospace-grade titanium alloy plates/forgings, a core material链 for rocket bodies and tanks. Guangwei Advanced Materials (300699.SZ) and Zhongjian Technology (300777.SZ) produce high-modulus, high-strength carbon fiber composites used in satellite structures and fairings/rocket body composites. Once domestic constellations transition from test satellites to批量 launches and carbon fiber prices stabilize, these composite material companies could enter a new primary uptrend.
A Note of Caution on Valuations
It is crucial to recognize that both confirmed SpaceX suppliers and other companies on the domestic supply chain have experienced significant stock price appreciation since December 2024, driven by the dual forces of strengthening industry logic and anticipation of the SpaceX IPO. This suggests that the valuation re-rating phase driven primarily by narrative may have concluded. For stock prices to initiate a second wave of strong performance, tangible industry breakthroughs (e.g., scaled reuse of Starship, accelerated domestic network deployment) or clear earnings growth demonstrated in company financial reports will be necessary.
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