According to a research report from Citigroup, US President Trump announced plans to reimpose a blockade on Iran and impose a 20% "security fee" on all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, intended to subsidize US costs for ensuring maritime security in the region. If these measures are implemented, the risk of an escalation in US-Iran tensions would be significantly heightened. The possibility of Iran withdrawing from the existing memorandum of understanding before the US midterm elections also increases, which could lead to oil prices remaining elevated for an extended period. The bank's current base case forecast is that the two countries will return to diplomatic negotiations within one to two weeks, and until then, it maintains its existing oil price forecasts unchanged.
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