Gold's latest market trend analysis: On January 26th, analysis of gold's fundamental drivers: The price of gold broke through the $5,000 per ounce mark on Monday (January 26th) and continued its surge, reaching a record high of $5,051.94 per ounce by 08:55, a gain of approximately 1.32%. The market continues to seek safe-haven assets against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. A recent report from Bank of America has garnered widespread attention, as the institution raised its short-term gold price target to $6,000 per ounce; this is not only the most aggressive forecast among major financial institutions but also signals a potential new round of a strong bull market for gold. This prediction is based on a comprehensive analysis of historical bull market patterns, market supply and demand dynamics, and macroeconomic factors, anticipating that gold prices will achieve this milestone surge by the spring of 2026, representing a nearly 10% increase from the current record high.
From a technical analysis perspective, gold surged as anticipated during Friday's session to the 4966 level, once again刷新ing a historical record, before undergoing a technical correction to around 4900 during the European session. This movement fully aligns with常规 market behavior following a new high—a pullback triggered by some long positions taking profits—while the overall structure remains稳固ly within the dominant bullish trend. Technical indicators convey a clear signal: the 1-hour Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating short-term momentum is entering a consolidation phase; the 4-hour chart trend remains intact but urgently requires a healthy correction to repair overbought indicators and consolidate the foundation for further gains. The trend is unmistakably bullish, characterized entirely by large bullish candles taking off, with the bottom forming a rounded bottom pattern; the K-line consistently holds above the moving averages,始终 advancing while stepping on them. The ability to rally from around 4900 to the 5000-point level speaks volumes about the strength of the bulls; continue buying on any pullbacks this week. Gold opened on Monday with spot gold冲破 the $5,020 mark, currently reaching a high of 5093, while silver一度 surged past $106. Technical signals同样 clearly point to a bullish outlook. Bullish momentum continues to be released; the Bollinger Bands show a明显的 upward opening形态, with prices始终 running near the upper band, maintaining a完好 upward channel and exhibiting极强的 trend continuity. From a four-hour perspective, gold is consolidating at high levels to accumulate energy, with the Bollinger Band opening further expanding, indicating ample short-term upward momentum remains. In summary, for gold's short-term trading strategy today, the recommendation is primarily to buy on dips, supplemented by selling on rallies. Key short-term resistance above is focused around the 5110-5130 line, while key short-term support below is focused around the 5050-5030 line.
Crude oil's latest market trend analysis: Analysis of crude oil's fundamental drivers: The international crude oil market faced significant pressure during the week. WTI crude oil experienced minor fluctuations during Friday's Asian session, trading around $59.70, falling back below the key $60 level, with rising inventory pressures and expectations of a缓和 in the Russia-Ukraine situation being the main factors weighing on prices. On the geopolitical front, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the US, Russia, and Ukraine will hold trilateral team meetings on Friday. This news boosted market expectations for a substantive breakthrough in a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire,削弱ing the geopolitical risk premium previously priced into oil. On the fundamental side, the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude inventories increased by approximately 3.6 million barrels last week, significantly higher than the market's expectation of a 500,000-barrel draw. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories rose by about 6 million barrels, marking the tenth consecutive week of growth and reaching the highest level since 2021.
From a technical analysis perspective, looking at the daily chart, oil prices entered a震荡 phase after touching around 54.80. Prices have broken through the moving average system and are receiving support from it, indicating a medium-term客观 bullish trend direction. The price increases have been gradual with strong repetitiveness; before the first medium-term resistance at 62.60 is broken, the medium-term upward trend of crude oil remains fluctuating within a wide range. On the short-term (1H) chart, the price has been rising一路上行, touching near 61.40. The moving average system is in a多头排列, indicating a short-term客观 upward trend direction. In terms of momentum, the MACD indicator is operating at high levels above the zero line, with bullish momentum still holding the advantage. It is expected that there is still room for another wave of upward movement intraday in principle. In summary, for crude oil's trading strategy today, the recommendation is primarily to buy on回踩 dips, supplemented by selling on rallies. Key short-term resistance above is focused around the 62.5-63.5 line, while key short-term support below is focused around the 60.0-59.0 line.
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