SHANGHAI, Feb 19 (Reuters) - China’s benchmark lending rate is set to stay unchanged for the 10th straight month at its February fixing on Saturday, a Reuters survey showed.
Thirty-one traders and analysts, or 88% of all 35 participants, in a snap Reuters poll conducted this week predicted no change in either the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) or the five-year tenor.
Another three respondents expected an increase of 5 basis point to both tenors this month, while the other one predicted a marginal rate cut to the one-year LPR.
The one-year LPR was last at 3.85%, and the five-year rate stood at 4.65%.
Strong expectations for a steady LPR this month came after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) rolled over the maturing medium-term lending facility (MLF) on Thursday, while keeping the interest rate unchanged for a 10th straight month.
The MLF, one of the PBOC’s main tools in managing longer-term liquidity in the banking system, serves as a guide for the LPR.
Spikes in some short-term money market interest rates ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year holiday prompted some speculation that a shift to a tighter monetary policy stance may be underway.
Economists at Morgan Stanley said they continued to expect a gradual and flexible pace of countercyclical tightening this year.
“However, a hike in policy rates appears unlikely in 2021,” they said in a note published earlier this month, adding the central bank still aimed to keep funding costs for companies stable while inflation dynamics would remain healthy.
Separately, Financial News, a publication owned by the PBOC, said on late Thursday that investors paying too much attention to the size of the central bank’s liquidity operations could lead to a misunderstanding of monetary policy.
The LPR is a lending reference rate set monthly by 18 banks.
All 35 responses in the survey were collected from selected participants on a private messaging platform. (Reporting by Reuters China fixed income team, Writing by Winni Zhou; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)
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