Within the landscape of public funds, the boundaries between passively invested ETFs and actively managed funds are becoming increasingly blurred. The filing and issuance of ETFs are not merely about completing a toolkit but are gradually evolving into a coordinated "pas de deux" with active equity funds. From robotics to commercial aerospace, and further to chemicals and photovoltaics, the thematic layout of ETFs is becoming a crucial barometer for active equity funds to unearth sector logic and judge policy and market inflection points, with both forces jointly amplifying the high volatility of sector trends. Are active equity funds replicating ETF strategies? The thematic directions of public ETF filings are increasingly becoming a "barometer" for the allocation strategies of many active equity funds. As thematic investing gains prevalence in the A-share market, the development of sector ETF products is increasingly focusing on market demand and profit potential; the logic of their index construction, in fact, deeply incorporates active equity fund managers' judgments on industry prospects. This mutually reinforcing relationship has been vividly demonstrated in past sectors like baijiu and new energy, as well as more recent ones such as chips, AI, satellites, and innovative drugs. A notable phenomenon is that the top ten performing active equity funds in 2025 largely exhibited characteristics reminiscent of ETFs: extreme sector concentration and very high holding concentration. To capture beta returns that are not inferior to ETFs, active funds have generally raised their equity allocation close to the contractual上限 of nearly 90% or even almost fully invested, primarily betting on a single high-growth theme. This "catching up with ETFs" operational model has enabled active equity funds and ETFs to form a powerful combined force during sector rallies. The batch filing of ETFs is also often seen as the "starting pistol" before an industry boom. Taking the robotics theme as an example, after leading public fund houses like E Fund and Harvest密集 issued robotics ETFs in 2024, it took only about a year for the theme to become the top holding choice for active equity funds in 2025; among the top ten active equity funds in Q1 2025, almost all were heavily invested in robotics. The recent favor active equity funds have shown for commercial aerospace follows a similar pattern; Yongwin Fund launched the market's first satellite ETF focusing on the commercial aerospace theme in March 2025, an action perceived as a signal that the allocation window for active equity funds was approaching. Half a year later, following policy tailwinds released in November 2025 and positive spillover from US markets, commercial aerospace indeed became a new darling for active equity funds, with the distinctive net asset value movements of several active funds around January 2026 hinting that their allocation direction had shifted heavily towards the commercial aerospace sector. Conversely, when public fund houses reduced filings for consumer-themed ETFs, active equity funds' allocations to the consumer sector also weakened. This model of "ETFs lead, active funds follow" is no longer just simple capital trailing but represents a resonance after institutional consensus is reached on industry trends. The filing logic of passive ETFs is notably empowering active equity funds. It is worth highlighting that the filing rationale behind passive ETFs is evolving from simply capturing trends to becoming a predictor of industry inflection points, deeply enriching the investment research systems of active equity funds. Notably, as technology narratives dominate the fund investment research circle, ETF product development is no longer solely about anticipating right-side trend opportunities but has also begun leveraging the deep forward-looking analysis of investment research departments to position for cyclical reversals at the bottom left-side, often when sectors are neglected. The sudden密集 issuance of chemical ETFs in the latter half of 2025, after a long period of quiet, is a vivid example of this shift in ETF product logic towards being an investment research pioneer. Leading institutions like Harvest and Tianhong相继 announced the launch of chemical ETFs into the market in November 2025. According to the fund prospectuses, these chemical ETFs received regulatory approval in September 2025, and precisely at the end of September 2025, many active equity funds, whose previous holdings differed significantly from chemical stocks, suddenly entered and positioned early – for instance, fund managers like Chen Jinwei of Penghua Fund had no chemical stocks in their top holdings reported in the 2025 interim reports, but by the end of September 2025, a batch of chemical stocks such as Luxi Chemical, Huafon Chemical, Hualu-Hengsheng, and Lion appeared prominently in their top ten holdings lists; the Harvest Industrial Preferred Fund managed by Shen Yuliang also increased its weighting in chemical stocks during the same period. The synchronicity between these active equity fund managers and the filing/issuance of public ETFs suggests a high degree of coordination between public fund investment research and product development. As Shen Aiqian of Ping An Fund recently stated in his 2026 outlook, chemical stocks present investment opportunities in 2026, with optimization on the supply side and a moderate demand recovery making this traditional cyclical sector attractive again. Meanwhile, following the start of 2026, fund companies have continued to advance ETF filings into more specialized areas. Beyond the persistently hot themes of biotech, chips, and AI, traditional sectors like electric utilities, consumer electronics, and engineering machinery have also returned to the spotlight. This passive product filing strategy of "embracing the new without abandoning the old"预示着 that the strategies of active equity funds will also shift in 2026. ETF left-side intervention strengthens fund allocation confidence. ETF filings have also become an anchor of confidence for some industries during their "darkest hours." When active equity funds maintain long-term underweight positions or even abandon certain themes due to industry downturns, the contrarian布局 of ETFs often signals the final stage of industry consolidation and the dawn of a fundamental reversal. The photovoltaic and battery sectors are typical examples of this "contrarian allocation" strategy. These two sectors had been largely shunned by active equity funds over the past two years, with allocation ratios hitting rock bottom. However, right at the beginning of 2026, leading public fund houses like Fullgoal and China Southern contrarily announced the issuance of photovoltaic ETFs and battery ETFs in January of this year. This move to launch ETFs when the industry is at its coldest seems untimely but contains profound implications. The rationale behind these leading fund houses' contrarian filings for photovoltaic and battery ETFs was soon corroborated by policy developments. On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an "Announcement on Adjusting Export Tax Rebate Policies for Products Such as Photovoltaics," stating that from April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products would be取消, and the rebate rates for battery products would be phased down. Many fund managers interpreted this policy as a "retreat to advance" supply-side reform – forcing industry consolidation by removing subsidies, ending cut-throat low-price competition, and thereby enhancing the profitability of leading companies. Evidently, the synergy between ETF product development and investment research departments has become a significant advantage for public funds in精准 positioning. "The core competitiveness of our company's ETF business stems from the group's ecosystem synergy, as well as our continuous investment in product innovation and deep understanding of client needs," emphasized Bai Guiyao, an ETF fund manager at Ping An Fund, stating that through a six-step process of "strategy classification – identification – adaptation – implementation – monitoring – attribution," they ensure the executability and traceability of investment strategies. Against the expectation that profit drivers will replace valuation expansion as the main market theme in 2026, Ping An Fund's ETF products,凭借 their comprehensive product布局 and deepened strategic service capabilities, can provide investors with more precise and efficient tool-based allocation solutions. Many public fund professionals also believe that the filing and issuance of ETFs are gradually evolving into pioneers for active equity funds to布局 niche opportunities, not only providing institutional coverage and liquidity for sectors that active funds are "unwilling or afraid to buy," but also, through their tool-based nature, offering instruments for "bottom-fishing" in overlooked sectors that have bottomed out and are beginning to see profit recovery. This closed loop of "ETF products leading, policy tailwinds following, and active funds returning" may become a new path for public funds to unearth alpha in 2026.
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