SpaceX is set to release its first quarterly earnings report since going public, presenting a critical test for the market.
The company will announce its second-quarter results after the market close on Wednesday, August 4, Eastern Time. As of the start of trading this Monday, the stock has fallen for four consecutive weeks, dropping roughly 20% from its initial public offering price of $135 and declining 46% from its all-time closing high of $201.80 on June 16.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield noted in a preview report that "initial quarterly earnings estimates may have extreme deviations," suggesting there is little clarity on the likely performance.
Meanwhile, a significant overhang from lockup expirations looms over the stock. Approximately 912 million shares become eligible for trading on August 6, with another 319 million shares unlocking roughly a week later. This implies substantial potential selling pressure from early investors, and market attention will focus on the stock's reaction on Thursday and Friday. A strong earnings report may be the only catalyst to break the losing streak.
AI Business Revenue Has Massive Potential but Highest Uncertainty
SpaceX reports earnings across three segments: Space, Connectivity, and Artificial Intelligence (AI). The AI segment represents the biggest question mark this quarter.
The core asset of the AI business is xAI, which SpaceX completed merging with in February. xAI currently operates two land-based data centers: Colossus I in Tennessee and Colossus II in Mississippi. In the first quarter, the AI business generated $818 million in revenue but recorded a $2.5 billion operating loss and $7.7 billion in capital expenditures.
Entering the second quarter, a significant variable has emerged on the revenue side. SpaceX has signed AI data center leasing agreements with Anthropic and Google. The Anthropic agreement is valued at up to $1.25 billion per month, with volume gradually ramping up between May and June. The Google agreement has not yet started. This means actual revenue for the AI business this quarter is highly elastic, and the trajectory of profit margins and new capital expenditure is equally difficult to predict.
Investors are most eager for guidance on the AI business outlook for the second half of this year and 2027, as well as the timeline for the company's plan to use Starship to launch low-cost AI computing satellites into orbit.
Starlink: User Growth Is the Key Metric
The Connectivity business, Starlink, is SpaceX's most stable profit engine. At the end of the first quarter, Starlink had 10.3 million subscribers, more than double the 5 million from 12 months earlier. It generated $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating profit for the quarter.
In this earnings report, user growth data will be the market's focus. Colin Canfield expects the company to disclose average revenue per user (ARPU) metrics and the contract backlog for enterprise and government customers. These data points will help investors assess Starlink's commercialization depth and future growth potential.
Space Business: Starship Progress Under Scrutiny
The Space segment carries SpaceX's core technological narrative. In the first quarter, the segment generated $4.1 billion in revenue, a $657 million operating loss, and $1.1 billion in new capital expenditures for plant and equipment. During the second quarter, Falcon 9 completed approximately 36 launches, with most serving the company's own Starlink constellation deployment, which does not count toward Space segment revenue.
Progress on Starship is also closely watched. In July, Starship completed its 13th flight test. Investors will seek updates on the timeline for the 14th test and the scale of the company's continued investment in the rocket, which is a key vehicle for future commercial payload launches and AI satellite deployment.
Earnings Expectations and Market Outlook
Wall Street currently expects SpaceX to report second-quarter total revenue of approximately $6.9 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of about $2.1 billion. Full-year revenue estimates are $39 billion, with EBITDA of $17.3 billion. Colin Canfield holds a more optimistic view for this quarter, expecting results to beat estimates with positive guidance.
However, the reliability of these forecasts is questionable. Since this is SpaceX's first quarterly report as a public company, analysts have no historical data to calibrate against, and actual numbers could deviate significantly.
The stock price path is also uncertain. The supply pressure from the expiring lockup shares, market concerns about Elon Musk's divided attention, and debates over valuation itself, with a current market capitalization of approximately $1.4 trillion representing about 35 times estimated 2026 revenue, will all be key factors influencing the market's reaction after the earnings release. For investors, this weekend could be highly turbulent.
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