Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that the US economic outlook is under pressure, interest rate cuts are highly certain, the US dollar's credibility is entering a downward cycle, global geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions persist, and continuous gold purchases by central banks and ETFs continue to support and drive gold prices higher. Silver possesses both industrial and financial attributes, with demand for silver in photovoltaics remaining strong; the firm is optimistic about a catch-up rally in silver driven by a boost in industrial demand.
The main views of Guolian Minsheng Securities are as follows: The US economic outlook is pessimistic, and the interest rate cut cycle is accelerating. While the US economic growth rate remains stable, demand momentum is weakening, and downward pressure on the economy is gradually emerging. Consumer confidence indices and the growth rate of personal disposable income have been declining since the beginning of the year; the downward trend in the PMI for the investment sector continues, persistently below the boom-bust line; historical employment data is frequently revised downwards, and the unemployment rate has risen sharply, reaching its highest level since September 2021. The Fed's interest rate policy must balance the economy and inflation; under sustained high interest rates, US fiscal and debt pressures are increasing, compounded by Trump's calls for rate cuts and challenges to independence due to changes in Federal Reserve leadership, accelerating the trend towards a rate-cutting cycle, which is beneficial for gold prices.
Sovereign currency credibility is declining, and central bank gold buying momentum remains strong. After the public health event, to stimulate economic growth, countries worldwide significantly expanded their balance sheets, impacting currency credibility. Historical analysis shows an overall positive correlation between gold reserves and gold prices. Following the global currency oversupply in 2020, central banks' demand for gold purchases increased, with annual purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes for three consecutive years up to 2024; China's central bank increased its holdings again in December 2025, marking 14 consecutive months of purchases. Against the backdrop of declining currency credibility, the willingness to allocate gold within global central bank assets is rising, continuously pushing the central price of gold higher.
Geopolitical conflicts and tariff policies drive safe-haven investments, with new domestic and international funds flowing into the market. Since Trump took office in 2025, geopolitical issues have persisted, and trade protectionist policies, represented by "reciprocal tariffs," have pushed global geopolitical and international trade risks to historically high levels. Gold ETF holdings and trading activity in various regions have also hit record highs. Additionally, new domestic funds, such as insurance capital, are accelerating their entry into the gold market, injecting new momentum into the rise in gold prices.
Silver: Dual-attribute pricing, focus on the catch-up行情. Industrial demand accounts for over 50% of total silver demand. In recent years, silver usage in photovoltaics has grown rapidly while supply growth has been limited, continuously widening the silver supply-demand gap. Silver is priced based on both its financial and industrial attributes. As an important indicator, periods where the gold-silver ratio declines typically correspond with rising silver prices. Historical review shows that the gold-silver ratio and PMI generally have an inverse relationship. If a subsequent decline in the gold-silver ratio leads to a resonance of silver's financial and commodity attributes, silver prices may exhibit greater upward elasticity, boosted by expectations for industrial demand.
Risk warnings: Overseas geopolitical risks, US inflation exceeding expectations, and central bank demand falling short of expectations.
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