On September 18, gold continued its high-level oscillation during the day, with prices operating within a conventional trading range. The upper resistance is concentrated in the 4380–4386 zone, while the lower support is seen at 4335–4324. In the short term, the battle between bulls and bears is unfolding within this range, and a range-bound strategy should be maintained until a breakout occurs. If prices break above the combined resistance at 4386, where the daily MA120 moving average and the daily SAR indicator converge, the next upside targets would be 4405, 4424, and 4442. However, if prices fail to hold above 4386 today, the downward correction could directly target 4335, 4300, and 4280.
Reviewing yesterday's price action, the US dollar briefly broke above the 100 level but failed to hold it, and the subsequent pullback provided an opportunity for gold to surge higher. Strong buying sentiment and clear momentum in bullish capital inflows resulted in a solid bullish candlestick close, indicating robust support from buyers at lower levels—this serves as key short-term confidence for the bulls. However, risks cannot be overlooked. The US dollar has now firmly established itself above the 100 mark, and renewed dollar strength directly pressures gold, which is priced in the greenback. Additionally, given that today is Friday, funds tend to lock in profits and reduce positions ahead of the weekend. If market sentiment shifts, a sharp downward correction in gold cannot be ruled out, and the risk of an intraday plunge must be closely monitored.
Gold Trading Strategy: Current spot price is at 4374. 1) Sell on a rebound to the 4386–4395 zone with a stop loss at 4401, targeting 4355, then 4335, and 4300. 2) Buy on a pullback to the 4340–4335 zone with a stop loss at 4330, targeting 4360 and 4380. 3) Place a sell limit order at 4424 with a stop loss at 4435, targeting 4400 and 4350.
Crude oil has remained weak throughout the week, with the strength of rebounds gradually diminishing. Thursday's high was 102.8, but Friday's intraday high has further declined to 102.3, with rebound highs continually lowering. The 102.3–102.8 zone now forms today's strong resistance area, and unless this level is breached, a bearish outlook should be maintained. The weekly low has been refreshed to 99.3, and the daily SAR parabolic indicator has completed its turn, beginning to diverge downward from higher levels—technical indicators confirm bearish momentum dominance. As Friday marks the weekly close, the lackluster rebound combined with bearish indicators suggests oil prices could again test new weekly lows and continue their downward exploration.
On the downside, the former resistance level at 95 has now transformed into the first key support. Next, the daily Bollinger Band middle band has moved up from 93.1 to around 94, forming the second support level. Meanwhile, the weekly MA5 moving average has simultaneously shifted down to 92.3, providing a deeper support reference. These three support levels, each positioned lower, indicate that the medium-term trend remains bearish, with further downside room available. On the upside, the key focus is the strong resistance zone at 102.3–102.8. If prices unexpectedly break above this area, the market would return to a high-level consolidation phase, opening up rebound space. Further upside resistance is seen at 104.2 and 106.1, respectively.
Overall, both fundamentals and technicals align in a bearish direction. Today's recommended approach is to maintain a sell-on-rebound strategy.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy: Current spot price is at 100.7. 1) Sell on a rebound to the 102.3–102.8 zone with a stop loss at 103.2, targeting 100.5, then 99.3, 97.5, and 95. 2) Buy at the 99.1–89.9 zone with a stop loss at 89.5, targeting 100.2 and 101.5.
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