Premarket, the three major U.S. stock index futures were mixed. As of the time of writing, Dow futures fell 0.48%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.23%, and Nasdaq futures climbed 0.60%.
As of the time of writing, Germany's DAX index dropped 0.12%, while the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 0.36%, France's CAC 40 gained 0.37%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 increased by 0.29%.
As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell 0.23% to $60.49 per barrel. Brent crude declined 0.25% to $64.61 per barrel.
UBS projects the S&P 500 could reach 8400 points by year-end, suggesting an era of simultaneous strength in gold and stocks is dawning. Alan Rechthafen, Senior Portfolio Manager at UBS Global Wealth Management, expressed optimism about U.S. stocks despite gold prices soaring past $5,000 per ounce. He argued that high gold prices and a sustained stock market rally are not mutually exclusive, citing multiple transformative drivers poised to push equities higher before the year closes. Rechthafen's base case forecast for the S&P 500 by year-end is 7700 points; under a more optimistic scenario with favorable market conditions, the index could potentially reach 8300 to 8400 points. He identified the so-called "three major opportunities" driving the market: artificial intelligence, longevity technology, and electrification. These transformative themes are expected to benefit not only technology creators but also end-users across various industries. While acknowledging that many investors are turning to gold as a hedge against social unrest and other uncertainties, Rechthafen firmly maintains that risk assets and safe-haven assets can appreciate simultaneously.
One of the most likely times for Trump to announce Powell's successor could be during this week's FOMC meeting! U.S. President Trump claimed he has a preferred candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chair and stated at the Davos Forum he would make the announcement "in the near future." U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that Trump indicated an announcement "could come as early as the week of January 26th" (i.e., this week). Wolfe Research highlighted one particularly prominent timing window: during the Fed's January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Wolfe Research noted the logic of this timing, "especially if Trump wishes to shift market attention away from the Fed, which has not implemented rate cuts."
Fleeing the Dollar, Embracing Gold! European asset management giant Amundi asserts the gold rally is far from over. Amundi SA, Europe's largest asset manager, stated that as divisions between the U.S. and other nations deepen, numerous investors are reducing dollar-denominated assets and shifting towards gold, which will continue to support stronger gold prices. The firm's Chief Investment Officer, Vincent Mortier, said in an interview that the U.S.'s massive fiscal deficit, coupled with uncertainty around the Fed's future monetary policy, is further driving the shift from dollars to gold. He stated, "For the past two and a half years, we have consistently allocated to gold assets, and I believe this strategy can continue. In the long run, gold is an excellent hedge against currency devaluation and an effective way to preserve purchasing power." As of writing, spot gold was up over 1%, trading at $5,080 per ounce.
Silver is experiencing a 'furious bull market'! However, its price action resembles meme stocks, and short-term pullback risks may intensify. Silver's rapid recent ascent and extreme volatility have drawn warnings from some market participants. Marko Kolanovic, former Chief Strategist and Global Head of Research at JPMorgan, suggested that by late 2026, silver prices could fall to roughly half their current levels. He believes the sharp price increase is not fundamentally driven but is primarily fueled by speculation, calling the rally a result of "meme traders attempting to dominate the market." Mike Antonelli, Market Strategist at Baird, compared silver to the original meme stock, GameStop. Data indicates the silver market is currently more frenzied than retail-driven meme stocks, with volatility now in a state of being "completely out of control." Consequently, investors should note that recent silver price gains have exceeded expectations and be wary of pullback risks stemming from short-term profit-taking. As of writing, spot silver surged over 7% to $111.8 per ounce.
Bearish sentiment is rampant: Dollar hedging costs hit their highest since 2011, suggesting a potential drop to a four-year low. As high political turmoil in the U.S. triggers a rush into bearish hedges, dollar traders are betting on a deeper decline at record costs. The premium on short-term options that profit from a weaker dollar has widened to its highest level since data became available in 2011. The bearish sentiment isn't confined to the short end—investor pessimism regarding the dollar's long-term prospects is at its highest level since at least May 2025. Although the dollar index edged higher on Tuesday, its preceding three-session losing streak was the worst since last April's U.S. tariff turmoil. If the decline resumes as suggested by option pricing, the dollar could fall to its lowest level in four years. As of writing, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) stood at 96.65.
A U.S. government proposal to effectively "freeze" Medicare payment rates triggered a collective flash crash in insurance stocks. The U.S. government proposed maintaining payment rates for private Medicare plans at current levels next year, disappointing investors and causing shares of major U.S. insurers to plummet. As of Tuesday's U.S. premarket trading, UnitedHealth (UNH.US) and Humana (HUM.US) plunged over 16%, while CVS Health (CVS.US) fell nearly 13%. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced it anticipates payment rates for Medicare Advantage plans in 2027 will increase by only 0.09%, far below the up to 6% increase analysts had previously expected. Payment rates are crucial for major insurers like UnitedHealth, CVS Health, and Humana. Higher rates help insurers cover medical costs, enhance benefits for senior customers, and boost profits, whereas a minimal increase directly compresses profit margins. For Medicare insurers already pressured by rising medical costs and perceived insufficient government funding, this adjustment implies almost zero growth. However, the final rates will be determined in the coming months and could potentially be revised upward.
UnitedHealth reported mixed Q4 results, with its 2026 guidance falling short of expectations. Earnings revealed Q4 revenue of $113.22 billion, missing market expectations of $113.87 billion; adjusted EPS was $2.11, slightly above the anticipated $2.10. The company forecasted full-year 2026 revenue of $439 billion, below the consensus estimate of $455.98 billion; it expects full-year adjusted EPS of $17.75, slightly lower than the market's expectation of $17.76.
Boeing (BA.US) reported earnings. Fourth-quarter non-GAAP EPS was $9.92; revenue was $23.9 billion, exceeding expectations by $1.06 billion.
United Parcel Service Inc (UPS.US) Q4 results exceeded expectations, and the company raised its 2026 revenue guidance. Earnings showed Q4 revenue of $24.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.38, both beating market forecasts. The company now anticipates 2026 revenue of approximately $89.7 billion, better than the expected $87.95 billion and above its previous guidance of $88.7 billion. This improvement is attributed to reducing low-margin delivery services for its largest customer, Amazon, while focusing on higher-yield freight operations. The company expects its 2026 adjusted operating margin to reach 9.6% and forecasts 2026 capital expenditures of approximately $3 billion, below the expected $3.72 billion. As of writing, UPS shares were up over 2% in Tuesday's premarket trading.
General Motors (GM.US) provided better-than-expected 2026 guidance and announced a $6 billion stock repurchase plan. Q4 earnings showed revenue fell 5% year-over-year to $45.3 billion, missing the expected $45.8 billion; operating profit was $2.8 billion, meeting expectations; adjusted EPS grew 30.4% to $2.51, beating the expected $2.20. The company forecasts 2026 adjusted EBIT of $13-$15 billion, compared to a market expectation of $13.39 billion; it expects full-year adjusted EPS of $11-$13, versus an expected $11.73. Additionally, GM's board declared a quarterly dividend increase of $0.03 to $0.18 per share and approved a new $6 billion stock buyback plan. The CEO stated that looking ahead, the company is operating in a U.S. regulatory and policy environment increasingly aligned with customer demand. As of writing, GM shares rose over 4% in Tuesday's premarket.
Reports suggest Anthropic was dropped due to high demands, while Apple (AAPL.US) is set to finalize a deal with Alphabet (GOOGL.US) for Gemini to power Siri. Reports indicate Apple may have selected Alphabet to help operate the next-generation Siri voice assistant, and negotiations between the iPhone maker and Anthropic for Siri's intelligence upgrade have collapsed. Apple adjusted its underlying Apple Intelligence strategy in the second half of 2025. According to an official January 2026 statement, Apple has entered a multi-year deep cooperation agreement with Alphabet. The core semantic understanding and multimodal interaction functions of the new Siri will be powered by the Gemini model. Market analysis suggests Alphabet's estimated annualized offer of around $1 billion is more cost-effective, and its mature cloud infrastructure can better support concurrent demand from iOS users globally. Meanwhile, Anthropic, the developer of the popular Claude series of AI models, sought compensation described as "billions of dollars annually for multiple years." Apple ultimately deemed the terms insufficiently favorable and suspended talks with Anthropic.
Micron Technology (MU.US) plans additional memory chip manufacturing investment in Singapore, aiming to tackle the global chip shortage head-on. According to three informed sources, the U.S. memory chipmaker is poised to announce new investment in memory chip production capacity in Singapore, an effort to expand output amid the current severe global shortage. The sources indicated Micron could unveil the investment plan as early as Tuesday local time, with one person revealing the focus will be on NAND flash memory. Singapore is a key manufacturing hub for Micron, producing 98% of its flash memory chips. The company is also building a $7 billion advanced packaging plant in Singapore for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, primarily used in AI chips, scheduled to begin operations in 2027. As of writing, Micron shares were up nearly 5% in Tuesday's premarket.
Nike (NKE.US) initiates a new wave of automation changes, cutting 775 jobs at a U.S. distribution center to "streamline" its supply chain. Sources revealed Nike plans to eliminate 775 positions at its distribution centers, aiming to streamline its supply chain footprint and accelerate automation. These layoffs are separate from the 1,000 corporate job cuts announced last summer. Nike confirmed in a statement that the layoffs primarily affect its U.S. distribution operations and are intended to reduce complexity, increase flexibility, and build a more responsive, resilient, accountable, and efficient operational system. This move continues the "Win Now" transformation strategy pursued by the current CEO since taking office. Previously, Nike underwent several organizational restructurings, including roughly 1,600 job cuts in early 2024 and adjustments to non-core functions at its headquarters in August 2025.
Key Economic Data and Events Preview: Beijing Time 23:00: U.S. January Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.
Earnings Preview: Wednesday Early Morning: Texas Instruments (TXN.US) Wednesday Pre-Market: ASML (ASML.US), United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC.US), New Oriental (EDU.US), AT&T (T.US), Starbucks (SBUX.US)
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