Analysis of the Latest Gold Market Trend: On May 18, the gold market analysis: In early Asian trading on Monday (May 18), spot gold fluctuated lower in a downtrend, currently trading around $2,416.09 per ounce. Against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical risks, the traditional safe-haven asset, gold, is competing with the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries for safe-haven capital, with the latter clearly being more favored recently. Spot gold suffered a significant setback last Friday (May 15), falling 2.45% to close at $2,538 per ounce, having touched a low of $2,511 per ounce, its weakest level since May 4. The weekly decline reached 3.75%, catching many bullish investors off guard. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures for June delivery also fell, dropping 2.7% to $2,560 per ounce. Gold technical analysis: Last week, gold closed with a large bearish candlestick, decisively breaking below the support of the 5-week and 10-week short-term moving averages, completely shattering the previous high-level consolidation range. On the weekly chart, the MACD indicator's bearish divergence expanded, with bearish momentum continuing to be released. The candlestick structure formed a high-level breakdown pattern, signaling the end of the medium-term bullish trend and the official start of a downward adjustment cycle. The daily chart shows a four consecutive bearish candlestick pattern, with a key support level at the neckline of the previous double-top pattern around $2,600 effectively broken, indicating the market has fully entered a weak downtrend channel. Prices continue to fluctuate downward along the 5-day moving average, with the moving average system forming a complete bearish alignment. The MACD dual lines continue to diverge downward, indicating ample bearish momentum. It is worth noting that the daily KDJ and RSI indicators have entered a deeply oversold zone, suggesting a strong technical rebound and correction demand in the short term. However, the overall trend is characterized by a "pause in the decline, rebound correction" pattern, with no signs of a reversal yet. After the rebound, the downtrend is expected to continue. On the 4-hour gold chart, the Bollinger Bands are fully open downward, with the K-line consistently trading near the lower band, indicating an extremely strong short-term bearish pattern. However, the RSI indicator remains in an oversold zone below 30, with divergence signals gradually emerging. It is highly likely that a minor rebound correction will occur early this week, with the rebound target pointing towards the middle band of the Bollinger Bands around $2,580. In terms of rhythm, short-term rebounds are not expected to be sustained. Upon reaching the middle band resistance, prices are likely to face renewed downward pressure, maintaining a weak rhythm of "rebound under pressure, fluctuating downward." All rebounds present opportunities for short positions. Key support levels: short-term support at $2,500-$2,490 per ounce, strong support at $2,450 and $2,400; short-term resistance at $2,580, strong resistance at $2,600. Overall, for today's short-term gold trading, the recommended strategy is to focus on selling on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary approach. Key resistance levels to watch above are $2,560-$2,600, while key support levels below are $2,450-$2,410. Analysis of the Latest Crude Oil Market Trend: Crude oil market analysis: In early Asian trading on Monday (Beijing time, May 18), U.S. crude oil rose over 1%, trading around $102.27 per barrel. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran persist, with Iran warning of an "offensive response" if the U.S. takes further military action, despite President Trump's belief that Iran intends to reach an agreement. Crude oil prices rose over 3% last Friday as tough statements from U.S. President Trump and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi further dampened hopes for an end to attacks and detentions of vessels around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude closed at $106.57 per barrel, up 2.43%, while U.S. crude closed at $105.66 per barrel, up 3.57%. Due to uncertainty stemming from a fragile ceasefire in the Iran conflict, Brent crude rose 8.57% for the week, and U.S. crude rose 11.6%. Crude oil technical analysis: From a daily chart perspective, crude oil prices are moving above and below the moving average system, with the medium-term objective trend direction entering a consolidation phase. The overall consolidation pattern in crude oil's movement is considered a secondary rhythm, having persisted for two months. According to the principle of alternating primary and secondary rhythms, the medium-term subjective trend direction is upward. Currently, the MACD indicator is operating near the zero line, with bullish momentum weakening. It is expected that the medium-term trend will remain primarily in a consolidation pattern. On the short-term (1-hour) chart, crude oil prices are fluctuating, having tested the $99.30 support level for the second time and temporarily finding support. In terms of momentum, bullish and bearish forces are intertwined, with bulls holding a slight advantage. It is anticipated that crude oil prices will maintain high-level consolidation during today's session. Overall, for today's crude oil trading, the recommended strategy is to focus on buying on dips, with selling on rallies as a secondary approach. Key resistance levels to watch above are $105.0-$108.0, while key support levels below are $98.0-$95.0.
Comments