On January 13th, despite a collective pullback in China's three major A-share indices, which saw the Shanghai Composite Index end its 17-day winning streak, the nonferrous metals sector demonstrated remarkable resilience by maintaining a strong upward trajectory. Total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 3.7 trillion yuan, marking a historic high with an increase of 54.1 billion yuan from the previous session.
The sector's popular ETF, Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876), surged to a new all-time high with an intraday gain of up to 2.9%, ultimately closing 0.54% higher. It recorded a full-day turnover of 122 million yuan, with trading volume showing a sequential increase over the past seven consecutive trading days.
Technical analysis reveals that following the formation of a golden cross in the MACD indicator, the fast line (DIF) has consistently remained above the slow line (DEA). This configuration signals a continuation of the bullish trend, indicating that short-term market buying pressure remains dominant and the momentum for price appreciation shows no significant signs of weakening.
In fact, capital is actively flowing into the sector amidst this heated rally. Data shows that Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) attracted a net subscription of 55.8 million units for the day. Extending the view, the ETF has seen substantial inflows totaling 311 million yuan over the past 10 trading days.
Among the constituent stocks, Hunan Silver briefly hit the daily limit-up and still closed with a gain of over 7% despite some pullback in the afternoon. Hailiang Co., Ltd. and Sinomine Resource Group rose by more than 5%, while stocks like Shanjin International, Zhongfu Industrial, and Silver Corporation also followed with gains. Heavyweight components such as Zijin Mining Group and Shandong Gold Mining advanced over 2%, and China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. and Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) also closed in positive territory.
Key developments are centered on gold and lithium: 1. Regarding gold, international gold prices continued their ascent into 2026. COMEX gold broke through the $4,600 per ounce barrier on January 12th, reaching a record high of $4,640.5. Although it experienced a slight retreat on January 13th, prices remained firmly above $4,500. Zhonghui Futures noted that on the supply and demand front, stagnant growth in mine production (with an average annual growth rate of about 0.5%) and rising extraction costs, coupled with synchronized investment demand and central bank purchases, are pushing the price equilibrium higher. They forecast that gold will trend upwards within a high volatility range in 2026, with a target range of $4,700 to $5,055 per ounce.* 2. In the lithium sector, lithium carbonate futures have been on a continuous sharp rise. The main lithium carbonate futures contract hit the daily limit-up during the morning session, reaching a high of 174,060 yuan per ton—the highest level since October 16, 2023—bringing its year-to-date surge to 40%. Recently, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement regarding adjustments to export tax rebate policies for products including photovoltaics. Chuanyuan Futures believes that the nearly three-month window period provided for exports may lead battery manufacturers to "front-load exports," thereby increasing battery production orders and providing a short-term boost to lithium carbonate demand.*
Looking ahead, institutions suggest that the "nonferrous metals feast" may continue into 2026, with a potential strong start in the first quarter. Huaxin Futures holds an optimistic view for the nonferrous metals market in Q1 2026. As 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, credit policies are expected to be relatively accommodative early in the year. Pre-holiday inventory restocking by downstream companies (to prepare for production halts during the holiday) combined with peak seasonal physical consumption for certain commodities like gold should provide phased support for nonferrous metals demand.* CSC Financial Futures indicates that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is expected to be dovish in 2026, with a high probability of further gradual interest rate cuts, creating a generally favorable environment for the nonferrous metals market.*
[The Nonferrous Metals Trend is Here, the 'Super Cycle' Appears Unstoppable] Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) and its linked funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) track a benchmark index that comprehensively covers sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium. It spans different phases of the economic cycle—precious metals (for hedging), strategic metals (for growth), and industrial metals (for recovery)—enabling investors to capture the broader beta opportunities of the entire sector through diversified exposure.
*Institutional views referenced from: ① Zhonghui Futures report "2026 Gold & Silver Outlook: Gold as the Cornerstone, Silver Riding the Momentum," published Dec 31, 2025; ② Views from Chuanyuan Futures analyst Yu Shuo, detailed in Securities Times article "Lithium Carbonate Futures Hit Limit-Up! Analysts Warn of Expectation Gaps," published Jan 13, 2026; ③ Views from Zhang Zihai, Head of Huaxin Futures Research Institute, detailed in Shanghai Securities News·China Securities Network article "'Nonferrous Metals Feast' May Continue in 2026, Strong Start Expected in Q1," published Jan 6, 2026; ④ Views from Jiang Lu, Chief Nonferrous Metals Analyst at CSC Financial Futures, detailed in Shanghai Securities News·China Securities Network article "'Nonferrous Metals Feast' May Continue in 2026, Strong Start Expected in Q1," published Jan 6, 2026. Risk Disclosure: Huabao Nonferrous Metals ETF and its linked funds passively track the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index. The index's base date is Dec 31, 2013, and it was launched on Jul 13, 2015. The index's performance over the past five full years is as follows: 2020: +35.84%; 2021: +35.89%; 2022: -19.22%; 2023: -10.43%; 2024: +2.96%. The index's constituent stocks are adjusted according to its compilation rules, and its past performance does not indicate future returns. The mention of index constituents herein is for illustrative purposes only; individual stock descriptions are not investment advice of any form and do not represent the holdings or trading动向 of any fund managed by the manager. The fund manager assesses this fund's risk level as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for investors with a Balanced (C3) or higher risk profile. Suitability matching opinions are subject to the selling institution. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to stocks, commentary, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, and any form of expression) is for reference only, and investors are responsible for any independent investment decisions. Furthermore, any views, analysis, or forecasts herein do not constitute investment advice of any kind to the reader, and no liability is accepted for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this content. Fund investment carries risks; past fund performance does not guarantee future results, and the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of this fund's performance. Invest cautiously in funds.
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