Goldman Sachs has increased its fourth-quarter Brent crude price forecast to $90 per barrel and its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price forecast to $83 per barrel, citing declining production in the Middle East. In a report dated April 26, an analyst team led by Daan Struyven stated, "Economic risks are greater than indicated by our single crude benchmark scenario, due to net upside risks to oil prices, exceptionally high refined product prices, risks of refined product shortages, and the unprecedented scale of this shock." The forecast assumes that crude exports from the Gulf region via the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of June (previously expected in mid-May), and that production recovery in the Gulf will slow. Goldman Sachs estimates that a reduction of 14.5 million barrels per day in Middle Eastern crude output led to a record global inventory decline of 11–12 million barrels per day in April. The firm projects that the global oil market will shift from a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 to a deficit of 9.6 million barrels per day by the second quarter of 2026. Due to soaring refined product prices, global oil demand is expected to decline by 1.7 million barrels per day year-on-year in the second quarter and by 100,000 barrels per day for the full year of 2026. Analysts noted, "As extreme inventory draws are unsustainable, a more significant demand reduction may be necessary if supply disruptions persist longer."
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