JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs both expect Middle East crude exports to approach pre-war levels

According to separate estimates by JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, Middle East crude oil shipments are recovering to near pre-war levels even though shipping risks remain.

JPMorgan analysts said in a September 29 report that Middle East oil export channels have largely recovered, which is "quite astonishing" given that fighting continues, though the recovery has been uneven. JPMorgan estimates that Middle East crude shipments have risen back to 17.5 million barrels per day, equal to 98% of pre-war levels, while refined product shipments such as diesel and gasoline stand at 3 million barrels per day, equal to 58% of pre-war levels. Based on a 10-day moving average over the past five days, combined crude and refined product shipments are equivalent to 89% of 2025 levels.

As the US-Iran conflict enters its eighth month, the global oil market is paying close attention to the scale of crude and refined product exports from the region. In addition to flows through the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline linking to Red Sea ports has now restored about half of its throughput after being damaged earlier this month. JPMorgan said oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have almost "returned to late-June highs, close to 13 million barrels per day," driven mainly by Saudi Arabia. But the bank noted that the increase in shipments "should not be misinterpreted as an improvement in security conditions, but rather reflects the oil industry's enhanced ability to operate in a persistent risk environment."

Goldman Sachs said Persian Gulf oil exports over the past week have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day, including shipments conducted in covert ways. That level is roughly in line with the 2025 average. Goldman Sachs analysts said in a September 29 report: "We estimate that the global oil market was roughly in balance in September." Goldman Sachs noted a clear divergence between falling Iranian oil exports and rising exports from other Persian Gulf producers. The bank estimates that Saudi Arabia's oil exports more than doubled in September, exceeding the 2025 average.