The Chinese stock market staged a solid rebound on September 18th, with the Shanghai Composite Index climbing nearly 1% and the ChiNext Index surging over 2%. Notably, the market returned to a state of "zero limit-down stocks" (excluding ST shares) for the first time since September 8th, while nearly 80 stocks hit their daily upper limit, signaling a significant uptick in short-term trading sentiment.
Unlike the previous two instances of zero limit-downs, the major indices also posted robust mid-range gains today, adding more conviction to the rebound. Looking at the broader market index, the three trading sessions in the latter half of this week trace a classic "rebound 鈫?minor pullback 鈫?renewed rally" pattern, with trading volume modestly expanding from the week's earlier lows, surpassing the 2-trillion-yuan mark again on Friday. This mirrors a global market rally, where investors first priced in the rate hike outcome, then took profits, and finally pushed stocks higher, which tentatively confirms an upward trend.
If the U.S. market continues to strengthen on Friday, expectations for the A-share market next week are likely to rise following a weekend of positive sentiment. Looking ahead, the Huaxi Securities strategy team believes that with the anticipated event passed, the A-share market is poised to embark on a new round of recovery, citing four core reasons. The first is that the market may have fully digested the impact of the rate hike, reducing macro uncertainty and opening room for a recovery. Second, with September's hike now done, the Federal Reserve will enter a data-dependent period, with monetary policy bias turning looser, which supports valuation repair and improved market mood during the autumn season.Geopolitical conflicts may cool down, and falling oil prices from highs could alleviate inflation pressures. Meanwhile, the boom in high-tech sectors continues to deliver results, providing strong support to the market's main themes. Jensen Huang, Nvidia's CEO, recently emphasized that AI is a long-term industry trend rather than a short-term speculative play, and as AI infrastructure evolves into society-level utilities, physical AI and cybersecurity are set to be the next growth cores.
The China Merchants Securities strategy team also commented that the Fed's 25-basis-point hike, while hawkish in tone, represents the landing of a negative shock that was largely anticipated. Although it slightly exceeded market expectations, there are no major macro variables to trigger new volatility in the near term, making a gradual shift away from macro sensitivity toward industry-driven pricing a likely path.
Turning to specific sectors and stocks, two key areas deserve attention in today's broad rally. First, newly listed stocks have seen an explosive performance. Shengu Group, which debuted just yesterday, triggered temporary trading halts on two consecutive days at 30% and 60% gains, showcasing an impressive money-making effect. On its first day, the stock closed up 373.8%, and today it surged again, dipping nearly 28% at the open before rebounding sharply, hitting a temporary halt in the morning and another in the afternoon, eventually closing up 177.74%. For investors who bought at the intraday low of 14.68 yuan, the theoretical maximum floating profit, from the low to the high of 82.59 yuan, was an astonishing 462.6%. This has attracted short-term capital to the new-stock segment, fueling market enthusiasm. C Xin诺威, listed a day earlier, also triggered a temporary halt but later gave back some gains. While such "get-rich-quick" opportunities are hard to catch and risky, the signals they send are worth noting. Analysts suggest that trading halts in new or almost-new stocks can foreshadow a turning point in liquidity and sentiment, as seen with N千岸 on July 29th and N惠科 on June 26th, where the follow-up trends diverged. Given current market levels and volumes, an upward breakout seems more likely.
Second, the semiconductor supply chain deserves its own highlight. The "chip" sector was an early mover, leading the market's strength, while the "optical communication" sector initially rose then fell before confirming its gains. Morgan Stanley's latest industry report indicates that advanced packaging, driven by the rapid AI industry development, holds long-term growth potential, with the domestic advanced packaging market expected to reach 100 billion yuan by 2029. Additionally, Nvidia's CEO reiterated on September 17th that the company expects chip sales to roughly double by 2027 from current annual levels. A previous CICC research report also noted that order backlogs for some high-speed optical chip companies extend into 2028 and beyond, with optical module order visibility stretching to 2027 and later.
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