The latest threats from Yemen's Houthi group are poised to deliver a fresh blow to the global energy markets, which are already under strain due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to reports, the Houthis stated they had launched missiles at "sensitive targets" in central Israel's Jaffa region, claiming to have "achieved the predetermined objectives." The group also announced a "comprehensive ban" on Israeli navigation in the Red Sea.
This declaration directly threatens a crucial current pathway for Saudi Arabia's oil exports via the Red Sea. Following the Strait of Hormuz closure, Saudi Arabia has rerouted over 70% of its daily crude exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu. This route has become a vital support for stabilizing global oil prices.
Analysts fear that if the Houthis were to repeat their previous large-scale attacks on Red Sea shipping, it would deliver a dual blow to global energy supplies.
Following the news, oil prices halted their decline and saw a slight rebound. At the time of writing, Brent crude futures were up 1.42% intraday, trading at $94.4 per barrel.
Hormuz Blockade Already Caused Major Energy Waves; Red Sea Becomes Final "Pressure Valve"
Since the attacks on Iran by Israel and the U.S. on February 28th, Iran's subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted most oil and other energy exports from the Gulf region. This led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, placing significant strain on global energy markets.
In this context, Saudi Arabia swiftly adjusted its export strategy, redirecting over 70% of its daily crude exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu. This move provided a critical alternative supply channel for the global energy market, helping to curb further runaway price increases to some extent.
However, this very "lifeline" now faces a direct threat from the Houthi group. Should the organization launch sustained attacks on Red Sea shipping or ports, the impact on global energy markets would be difficult to overstate.
Precedent from Previous Houthi Actions: Last Red Sea Offensive Nearly Paralyzed International Shipping
Following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, the Houthis began shelling Israel and attacking international shipping in the Red Sea, citing solidarity with Palestine. That offensive caused severe disruption, forcing major global shipping companies like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, significantly increasing voyage times and costs.
The U.S. subsequently led the formation of a naval task force to escort ships, conducted multiple strikes on Houthi targets, and intercepted hundreds of drones and missiles in defensive operations. Despite this, some Houthi attacks continued into the summer of last year, only fully ceasing after a Gaza ceasefire agreement took effect in October.
Notably, during the previous campaign, the Houthis expanded their targeting to include vessels belonging to any company that had ever used an Israeli port. This broad definition deterred numerous international shipping firms, leading them to voluntarily abandon the Red Sea route.
Understanding the Houthis: Origins and Relationship with Iran
The Houthi movement emerged in northern Yemen in the 1990s, initially as a blend of military, political, and religious activism. It grew in strength through guerrilla warfare against the Sana'a government.
The group adheres to the Zaydi branch of Shia Islam and strengthened its ties with Iran after the Arab Spring in 2011. It capitalized on domestic political turmoil to seize the capital in 2014, disrupting the political transition process supported by Gulf states.
Subsequently, a Saudi-led coalition intervened in the Yemeni civil war, aiming to restore the ousted government and expel what it saw as Iranian "proxy" influence. During the war, the Houthis repeatedly used missiles and drones to attack oil facilities and infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. A ceasefire was reached among Yemeni parties in 2022, leading to a general calming of the situation.
Regarding its relationship with Iran, Tehran includes the Houthis within its "Axis of Resistance," alongside Lebanon's Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia militias. The U.S. has accused Iran of providing the Houthis with weapons, funding, and training. The Houthis, however, deny being an Iranian proxy, insisting they develop their weapons independently.
It is noteworthy that unlike Hezbollah and Iraqi factions, the Houthis do not recognize the religious authority of Iran's Supreme Leader. Their operational motivations are primarily rooted in Yemeni domestic politics, and their ties to Iran are considered relatively less binding.
Relative Houthi Silence in the Current Conflict: Possible Reasons
While Hezbollah and Iraqi militias quickly entered the fray after the initial U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, the Houthis have been relatively subdued in this round of conflict involving Iran.
The group's leader, Abdul Malik al-Houthi, stated on March 5th that their "fingers are always on the trigger." However, until this week, their substantive involvement was limited to sporadic missile and drone attacks on Israel from late March to early April.
Analysts suggest several possible reasons for the Houthis' restraint. First, both the Houthis and Iran may wish to use the threat of "closing another vital energy channel" to pressure Israel and the U.S. and prevent further escalation. Second, compared to Tehran's other allies, the Houthis' sense of identification with Iran's security interests may be less strong. Third, the group may be reluctant to provoke its powerful neighbor, Saudi Arabia, and risk reigniting domestic conflict.
Esmaeil Qaani, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, warned on June 1st that the Houthis have the capability to "choke the Red Sea." However, exactly when and on what scale the Houthis might intervene remains highly uncertain. This uncertainty itself hangs like a sword of Damocles over global energy markets.
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