Abstract
Verra Mobility Corporation will report fourth-quarter results on February 24, 2026 Post Market, with investors watching revenue growth near 9% year over year, steady margins, and EPS progression as management executes on backlog and pricing initiatives across Government Solutions, Commercial Services, and Parking.
Market Forecast
Consensus and company-tracked projections point to fourth-quarter revenue of $241.18 million, implying a 9.39% year-over-year increase, with EBIT estimated at $79.40 million and EPS at $0.313, suggesting year-over-year growth of 1.52% for EBIT and 5.17% for EPS. Margin commentary from recent trends implies gross profit margin sustaining near the high-50% range and a stable net profit trajectory; adjusted EPS is projected to rise mid-single digits year over year.
The main business outlook emphasizes continued strength in Government Solutions and Commercial Services supported by contract expansion and stable enforcement volumes, while Parking Solutions remains a smaller but complementary revenue stream. The most promising segment is Government Solutions, with last quarter revenue of $122.56 million and a year-over-year growth pace implied by company guidance and contracting pipeline commentary; this segment benefits from recurring service revenues and deployments.
Last Quarter Review
In the prior quarter, Verra Mobility Corporation delivered revenue of $261.94 million, a gross profit margin of 57.96%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $46.84 million, a net profit margin of 17.88%, and adjusted EPS of $0.37, with year-over-year gains registered across revenue and adjusted EPS.
A notable highlight was net profit growth quarter on quarter of 21.42%, reflecting operating leverage and expense discipline alongside robust top-line delivery. Main business performance showed Government Solutions at $122.56 million, Commercial Services at $117.30 million, and Parking Solutions at $22.08 million, with the mix illustrating balanced growth across core platforms and solid contributions from public sector enforcement and commercial fleet programs.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Government Solutions: Contracts and camera deployments underpin revenue cadence
Government Solutions remains the company’s anchor, with last quarter revenue of $122.56 million and a high recurring-services mix that supports visibility into quarterly billings. The fourth quarter typically reflects execution on previously awarded red-light and speed camera contracts, program renewals, and incremental deployments; the company’s estimate for total revenue suggests continued carry-through of these drivers. Pricing updates and technology upgrades can provide modest uplift, while unit volumes are largely dictated by municipal project timelines and legislative frameworks. For this quarter, watch installation schedules, citation volumes, and adjudication throughput, as these operational factors translate directly into recognized service revenue and can shift mix and gross margin within a tight range.
Commercial Services: Fleet activity and utilization trends drive transaction intensity
Commercial Services, contributing $117.30 million last quarter, is tied to travel and fleet activity across rental and commercial customers, with fee-based models that typically track transaction volumes. Heading into the fourth quarter, steady travel demand and stable compliance services should support revenue, with limited seasonality offsets. Key variables include partner fleet utilization rates, cross-border and toll transaction counts, and pass-through fee dynamics that can influence both recognized revenue and margin profile. With EBIT guided to marginal growth and EPS to mid-single digit gains, we expect this segment to deliver consistent contribution, supported by long-standing customer relationships and embedded integrations.
Parking Solutions: Small but strategically valuable contributor
Parking Solutions, at $22.08 million last quarter, remains smaller in absolute terms but enhances the portfolio with adjacent use cases and cross-selling opportunities into municipal and campus environments. For the current quarter, new system go-lives and software module adoption can create incremental revenue, though timing can be lumpy relative to the larger segments. Given the scale, even modest project shifts can create visible percentage changes, but the dollar impact on consolidated results should remain contained. As product enhancements roll out and integrations deepen with Government Solutions customers, Parking can sustain a measured growth trajectory.
Key stock-price drivers this quarter: Revenue mix, operating leverage, and cash generation
Investors are likely to focus on whether revenue lands near the $241.18 million estimate and how mix between Government Solutions and Commercial Services supports gross margin in the high-50% range. Operating leverage will be in focus: prior-quarter net profit margin of 17.88% and quarter-on-quarter net income acceleration of 21.42% set a reference point for sustainable margin delivery in Q4, particularly as EPS is forecast to grow 5.17% year over year. Free cash flow conversion relative to adjusted EBITDA and progress on capital allocation, including any updates on share repurchases or tuck-in M&A, can influence sentiment. Any commentary on pipeline durability into 2026, especially regarding camera deployments and fleet customer expansions, will help frame the trajectory beyond this quarter.
Analyst Opinions
Recent institutional commentary skews bullish, with investor materials highlighting resilient recurring revenues, a 44% adjusted EBITDA margin on a trailing twelve-month basis, and consistent free cash flow generation that supports continued buybacks and selective M&A. Positive views emphasize the company’s diversified revenue base across Government Solutions and Commercial Services, supported by predictable contracts and embedded customer relationships that provide visibility into quarterly results. Analysts pointing to mid-single digit EPS growth alongside high-50% gross margins describe a balanced setup for Q4, with upside tied to on-time deployments and stable citation volumes. On this basis, the prevailing view is constructive: the majority expects Verra Mobility Corporation to meet or slightly exceed revenue and EPS estimates while maintaining disciplined margin management.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
Comments