On May 20, gold continued its weak downward trend, with prices retreating after briefly touching a high near $4,585 this week. Does this signal the end of the decline?
The answer is clear: a rebound does not equal the end of the downtrend.
The key logic is that the crucial support level around $4,500, which previously stabilized the rebound, has now been effectively broken. This invalidates the $4,500 level as a support zone. Therefore, the current rebound appears more like a technical correction within a weak market, with prices likely to resume the primary downward trend. However, it's important to note that this is not a one-sided sharp decline but rather a "volatile, shakeout-style downtrend."
Such market conditions place extremely high demands on trading operations: precision in entry and exit points is paramount, while directional bias is secondary. Poor entry timing can easily lead to being caught in back-and-forth volatility, resulting not only in missed profits but also repeated stop-losses. Only through precise positioning and strict risk management can one navigate this weak, choppy environment.
In an era of transformation: opportunities for ordinary individuals and the restructuring of investment logic.
We are living in a time of significant change—both the best of times and the worst of times.
With increasing economic downward pressure and a more complex investment landscape, opportunities for ordinary people seem to be dwindling. The information explosion has broken down industry barriers and information asymmetries,颠覆了过去的盈利模式. Emerging fields like high-tech and artificial intelligence remain distant for most. While society appears to be advancing rapidly, many ordinary individuals are being marginalized. Low-barrier, low-skill entrepreneurial avenues are already saturated or oversupplied, and social stratification is visibly accelerating, with this gap likely to widen further in the future.
This is not a regression of society but rather a reality where those who fail to keep pace with the times risk being left behind.
For those who have already achieved entrepreneurial success or modest accomplishments, it is crucial to remember: preserving what you have built is far more important than盲目扩张. In the current environment, recovering from a business setback or failure is significantly more challenging than in the past.
In investing, gains or losses in individual positions are never the key. What matters is always preserving the "opportunity to stay at the table" for the long term.
While the economy may seem sluggish, opportunities in the investment markets are actually increasing. The global economic and political order is being reshaped—a process that is lengthy and painful. Fortunately, we live in one of the world's safest and most stable countries, whose strength shields us from many crises and turmoil.
At this critical juncture of global economic混乱 and intensifying major-power competition, energy and resources have become core value洼地. In the future, as global supply-demand dynamics are restructured and geopolitical risks escalate, prices for energy and resources could rise beyond imagination.
For investors, opportunities lie both in the future and the present:
Future opportunities are embedded in the long-term value explosion of energy and resources.
Present opportunities involve seizing structural opportunities amidst the prevailing turmoil.
Returning to gold's price action, last week gold performed very weakly under triple pressure from a strengthening US dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes. It declined from around $4,730 to test the $4,500 level. In early trading today, it briefly broke below $4,500, touching a low near $4,456, clearly illustrating the weak trend.
As emphasized repeatedly last week, this year's market environment is fundamentally different from last year's—without clear bullish catalysts,纯粹的单边走势 are unlikely. Although the medium- to long-term broader direction still leans bullish, price action will more often manifest as "wide-range震荡上行." Above $4,650, gold is in a震荡强势 phase, with room for upside. Once it falls below $4,650, it shifts to a震荡下行 mode, requiring focus on lower support levels. Consequently, when gold broke below the key $4,650 level last week, it was noted that this move would likely test the $4,500 low, dealing a significant blow to bullish sentiment.
With gold having briefly broken below $4,500, the core strategy for the start of this week remains "following the weak trend." As long as the daily chart fails to close positively, gold lacks the momentum for an immediate bottom, with the next downside target around $4,350. Of course, if a rebound occurs, the first technical level to watch on the upside is the $4,580关口. This level will serve as the key demarcation for strength and weakness this week:
If gold remains below $4,580, the extremely weak trend persists, with further downside expected. Key support levels to watch below are $4,440 and $4,350.
If gold stabilizes above $4,580 and the daily chart closes positively, it will likely signal a bottom formation, paving the way for a rebound. A further recovery above the $4,650强弱 point would mark a return to a强势格局, with upside targets around $4,765.
To summarize the two core points for this week:
Current market conditions continue to pressure gold. Maintain a弱思路 below $4,580 and avoid盲目抄底.
A close above $4,580 coupled with a positive daily candle warrants caution for a potential bottom and rebound, with close monitoring of the $4,650 level.
Returning to the early-week盘面: After an early sharp drop to a low of $4,456, gold quickly rebounded back above $4,500—a "false breakdown." While this offers a glimmer of hope for bulls, the overall trend at the week's start remains extremely weak. Initial resistance is seen around $4,520-$4,540, and the弱下行思路 should be maintained for now. If prices retest the $4,450 low, a second attempt at bottoming could present a反弹机会, provided仓位 is strictly controlled.
Comments